Their surprise big freezes seem to happen every winter!
Originally Posted by: fairweather
When I was on holiday in Alaska a few years ago, it was mentioned (by the sled dog guide, one of those outdoorsy types) that the lower 48 keep seeing these record cold blasts and as such that which not must be spoken about is regarded as a bit of a hoax. Meanwhile up in Alaska, it's been getting warmer and warmer, leading to "drunk forests" as the permafrost melts. They're not impressed one iota with it all!
I also note that whenever the lower 48 gets one of these cold blasts, it invariably fires up the jet and leads to Atlantic mush. (A few decades ago, i.e. 90s and earlier, the extra Atlantic energy generated by those US plunges sometimes went so far south that it "pumped up" blocking to our north, but as the jet has migrated northwards over time (and heights over Europe have risen as a consequence), that's much less common these days).
Still, I suppose it keeps the heating bills down. Now that the cold is a distant memory down here, it means just a few hours of heating a day!
As for the models, all I can say is that from my point of view they're showing mild conditions for the majority of us (e.g.
Reading EPS ), but there remains a small chance, circa 10%, of cold conditions returning by the end of the year.
Further north, it's more interesting.
Inverness , for example, looks likely to see a spell of very cold weather over and just after Christmas, with ice days likely.
It remains to be seen exactly where the jet, and hence the dividing line ends up being, but it's undeniable it's trended northwards these past few days. However, as long as it's nearby cold cannot be completely ruled out... as Doc said yesterday, my old catchphrase - of "as ever, more runs are needed" - is just as applicable today! 😄