theweatheroutlook

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ballamar
13 January 2023 09:50:20
Ignoring snow potential etc could be a very wet day on Monday if GFS has the low pressure development right
Rob K
13 January 2023 10:07:46
Monday does indeed look foul in my area on the latest GFS. 3C and heavy rain. Could be some sludgy snow a bit further north though.

Tuesday to Wednesday was previously looking as though it could have some snow chances down here but the latest charts show the typical dry northerly for the south with less LP influence.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Saint Snow
13 January 2023 10:26:31

Monday does indeed look foul in my area on the latest GFS. 3C and heavy rain. Could be some sludgy snow a bit further north though.

Tuesday to Wednesday was previously looking as though it could have some snow chances down here but the latest charts show the typical dry northerly for the south with less LP influence.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 




Some of yesterday morning's charts seem a bit over-optimistic now. Last couple of GFS runs show far less snow around, as that period of a cold NW'ly flow is now a brief blip before high pressure builds in. And gone is the idea of a big link up between the Atlantic and Arctic highs. Just a boring UK high.

I'll admit, I had a bit of hope we'd get a 5-10cm fall overnight Monday into Tuesday (albeit a little wet), followed by at least a week of temps cool enough to sustain the lying snow. That looks a forlorn hope from the latest output (and the trend of output)

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Rob K
13 January 2023 10:32:31

Some of yesterday morning's charts seem a bit over-optimistic now. Last couple of GFS runs show far less snow around, as that period of a cold NW'ly flow is now a brief blip before high pressure builds in. And gone is the idea of a big link up between the Atlantic and Arctic highs. Just a boring UK high.

I'll admit, I had a bit of hope we'd get a 5-10cm fall overnight Monday into Tuesday (albeit a little wet), followed by at least a week of temps cool enough to sustain the lying snow. That looks a forlorn hope from the latest output (and the trend of output)

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


Yes looks like maybe a decent fall for some from the Midlands north could still be on the cards but then a swift return to westerlies looks quite likely, at least based on the charts I've seen this morning.
I'm not going to rule out the chance of a surprise even down here but things do seem to be heading the wrong way. 
My iPhone weather app still says sunny with zero precipitation on Monday, so a bit different from the GFS!
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
ballamar
13 January 2023 10:35:13
Long fetch SW on this op run wonder if this is a new trend. Does seem to be changing in the medium term quite significantly at the moment. But 21/22nd seem to signal the end of the cold snap
nsrobins
13 January 2023 11:05:17
The period Mon - Thurs next week is, predictably, looking rather uninspiring for the majorty of the country. There is a chance of course of snowfall but as ever it's (repeated ad nauseum) marginal.
Looking a little blocky again toward the end of the run but again no strong signal.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
fairweather
13 January 2023 11:28:56
A bit less promising but a cold snap coming for sure. After that it doesn't look to me like endless zonal gunk with several windows of high pressure. Okay, they may not form where we want them but it does look like the prospect of some brighter, less windy weather at times and the chance of night frosts. Much better than the 4 weeks of wet windy weather we've just had. Interesting that last January, though mild, was very dry and the start of the big drought down here. Very different story this January.
S.Essex, 42m ASL
+1
Saint Snow
13 January 2023 11:34:43

Yes looks like maybe a decent fall for some from the Midlands north could still be on the cards but then a swift return to westerlies looks quite likely, at least based on the charts I've seen this morning.
I'm not going to rule out the chance of a surprise even down here but things do seem to be heading the wrong way. 
My iPhone weather app still says sunny with zero precipitation on Monday, so a bit different from the GFS!

Originally Posted by: Rob K 




Last night, the BBC website weather had, for here, light snow from around 8pm Monday evening through to the early hours when it showed a few hours of heavier snow, then light snow into Tuesday morning.

First thing this morning, it's had changed to 4 hours of light snow overnight Mon/Tue.

Now it's showing dry throughout.

The GFS 6z, however, now shows pretty widespread snow on the NW England/N Wales region through Sunday, culminating in some very heavy snow across there plus S&W Yorkshire:

UserPostedImage


Almost certainly overdoing the snow risk as it's really marginal (-4c 850s and 528dam in a turbulent flow). Nice to see, however, the warm sector being in the east, when it's normally in the west, though 😋

UserPostedImage


Still, given the chart volatility, I expect it to look a whole lot different come Sunday.

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
tallyho_83
13 January 2023 11:51:06
zonal winds at 10hpa weaker:

UserPostedImage
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


Downpour
13 January 2023 12:15:24

One of my old friends who lives in Australia is in the UK at the moment. They arrived the day after the December cold snap ended and have endured wet windy dross for the whole time they’ve been here. They fly back on the 20th so will be hoping their kids who have never seen snow might get to see a flake or two before then, although the chances seem to be diminishing after yesterday’s glimmer of hope. 

Originally Posted by: Rob K 



Cor, that's dreadful timing. Had they visited the higher parts of Epping Forest just a few days earlier they would have seen the lion's share of a foot! Hope they get to see something before they go home. 
Chingford
London E4
147ft
Whiteout
13 January 2023 12:55:01

The period Mon - Thurs next week is, predictably, looking rather uninspiring for the majorty of the country. There is a chance of course of snowfall but as ever it's (repeated ad nauseum) marginal.
Looking a little blocky again toward the end of the run but again no strong signal.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 



That's a bit downcast from you Neil, could potentially spring a few surprises 😉
Home/Work - Dartmoor
240m/785 ft asl

Winter 22/23:

Snow falling days - 3
Snow lying days - 3
Ally Pally Snowman
13 January 2023 13:42:00
Yes the period Monday to Thursday could maybe even should hold some snowy surprises.  Marginal yes but the best falls are often marginal in this country. 
GFS 6z has this for Monday morning. 
https://content-eu.invisioncic.com/d321955/monthly_2023_01/image.png.85eac8eac7e20086650dccb6f0014354.png 
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
+1
Whiteout
13 January 2023 13:52:42
Part of the Met news release:

....By Sunday most of the UK will be in the northerly airflow, with lower temperatures spreading further south overnight. Showers will fall increasingly as sleet and snow in the north, even to lower levels. Some showers further South and West, and perhaps a more persistent spell of rain overnight into Monday, could also turn to sleet and snow mainly over high ground such as the Brecon Beacons, Exmoor and Dartmoor...

😍
Home/Work - Dartmoor
240m/785 ft asl

Winter 22/23:

Snow falling days - 3
Snow lying days - 3
Mick Grinch
13 January 2023 14:24:01
But, will it snow in Carlisle? Or, even more unlikely: will it snow in Beccles?😁
I'm autistic, so please bear with me: sometimes rules don't make much sense to me -- but I promise to do my very best!
Brian Gaze
13 January 2023 15:57:27
GFS 12z showing a big snow event for parts of southern and central England through Sunday night and into Monday.

Snow depths here:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gfs.aspx?run=12&charthour=63&chartname=uksnowdepth&chartregion=uk&charttag=Snow%20depth 

UserPostedImage 
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
+1
ballamar
13 January 2023 15:59:10
DP looks a little high for early next week where the main band of precipitation is. Cold rain looks likely based on that. Could be some ice problems Monday night forwards
ballamar
13 January 2023 16:37:21
Seems to be a power struggle in the mid range on GFS - HP wants to stick around but where is anyones guess
Saint Snow
13 January 2023 16:40:00
Different positioning again of the Sunday night/Monday low on the 12z.

This time further south and rushes it through quicker. Significant shift of the snow risk area to the SE. It does then re-circulate it in the North Sea to send it back into the UK, but only affects the east.

Again, a poor evolution (compared to those we saw yesterday) as we move toward FI, so a very transient coldish snap rather than anything to get excited about.

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Retron
13 January 2023 16:43:21

Different positioning again of the Sunday night/Monday low on the 12z.

This time further south and rushes it through quicker. Significant shift of the snow risk area to the SE. It does then re-circulate it in the North Sea to send it back into the UK, but only affects the east.

Again, a poor evolution (compared to those we saw yesterday) as we move toward FI, so a very transient coldish snap rather than anything to get excited about.

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


A much better run which brings no fewer than three snow events to my part of the SE. 👍

Don't worry, though, still plenty of time for it to change!
 
Leysdown, north Kent
tallyho_83
13 January 2023 17:15:02

Part of the Met news release:

....By Sunday most of the UK will be in the northerly airflow, with lower temperatures spreading further south overnight. Showers will fall increasingly as sleet and snow in the north, even to lower levels. Some showers further South and West, and perhaps a more persistent spell of rain overnight into Monday, could also turn to sleet and snow mainly over high ground such as the Brecon Beacons, Exmoor and Dartmoor...

😍

Originally Posted by: Whiteout 



12z GFS show temperatures @ 10hpa almost splitting the PV in latter stages temp goes for -75c to -25c in 4/5 days. A rise of 50c.

UserPostedImage
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


Saint Snow
13 January 2023 17:42:31

A much better run which brings no fewer than three snow events to my part of the SE. 👍

Don't worry, though, still plenty of time for it to change!
 

Originally Posted by: Retron 




I personally prefer the GEM positioning   😉

UserPostedImage


(although, like GFS, it's a shitshow once you move toward FI)

 

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
idj20
13 January 2023 17:50:00

A much better run which brings no fewer than three snow events to my part of the SE. 👍

Don't worry, though, still plenty of time for it to change!
 

Originally Posted by: Retron 

 

While that Sunday night low looks like bringing yet more strong in your face southerly gales to my neck of the woods, but other models are making less of it (unless the 12z ECM run show the same thing as GFS). It'll only going to be sloppy seconds marginal stuff anyway so I'm throwing in the towel with this upcoming chilly spell and just have to hope February offers better snow chances given the stratospheric profile for later on this month - and even that isn't a given.
Folkestone Harbour. 
Taylor1740
13 January 2023 17:52:16
I can't help but feel disappointed with the output today, very little sign if at all of anything cold beyond next week's brief cold snap.
NW Leeds - 150m amsl
MBrothers
13 January 2023 17:59:53

I can't help but feel disappointed with the output today, very little sign if at all of anything cold beyond next week's brief cold snap.

Originally Posted by: Taylor1740 

whoever said this was going to be a lengthy cold spell? 
Saint Snow
13 January 2023 18:18:26

whoever said this was going to be a lengthy cold spell? 

Originally Posted by: MBrothers 




GFS yesterday 🤣

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
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