theweatheroutlook

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Rob K
23 January 2023 10:17:22
It does seem odd how sharp the frosts have been with unremarkable synoptics and upper air not even that cold.

Will be watching the 6Z GFS run with interest after the incredibly boring charts of late - the 00Z had some potentially quite lively weather around Feb 5th, stormy and the chance of snow to quite low levels.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
+1
MRayner
23 January 2023 10:52:35
Latest GFS 06z has just perked up my interest again, some cold runs within the believable, ish, timeframe .
Location Whisky 🥃 country, Cragganmore ,Moray, 440 AMSL
Rob K
23 January 2023 11:36:33
The big storm around the 5th/6th has been pushed a bit further north, but before that there is some interested around the 2nd with a little feature coming down from the north delivering plenty of snow. All a long way out and no doubt will be very different come the day, but the potential is there.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
+1
nsrobins
23 January 2023 14:10:32

The big storm around the 5th/6th has been pushed a bit further north, but before that there is some interested around the 2nd with a little feature coming down from the north delivering plenty of snow. All a long way out and no doubt will be very different come the day, but the potential is there.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


It’s pretty much guaranteed to be different on the day, but a form of ‘lively’ cool zonality looks probable once the high finally meanders away to the south/SE. 
There is still only a small risk of a technical SSW and with the strat and trop remaining uncoupled any assistance from that direction remains minimal to negligible going into the last winter month.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
UncleAlbert
23 January 2023 14:21:05
Well, BBC still ramping up temperatures after the poor forecast for the weekend.  A big fat 10C placed in the centre of England for Wednesday, on the lunchtime forecast.  GFS 0600hr from 2 to 5C lower for that afternoon.
Will be interesting to see how near they get for central areas.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPME06_57_5.png 





 
Saint Snow
23 January 2023 14:26:48

The big storm around the 5th/6th has been pushed a bit further north,

Originally Posted by: Rob K 



🤮

Bugger

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
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Aneurin Bevan
ballamar
23 January 2023 15:59:18
Wouldn’t last long but wouldn’t take much adjustment to have a cold day at the end of the week in the SE
Downpour
23 January 2023 18:13:27

Well, BBC still ramping up temperatures after the poor forecast for the weekend.  A big fat 10C placed in the centre of England for Wednesday, on the lunchtime forecast.  GFS 0600hr from 2 to 5C lower for that afternoon.
Will be interesting to see how near they get for central areas.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPME06_57_5.png 





 

Originally Posted by: UncleAlbert 



There does seem to be some mild rampers at the wheel in the Beeb's weather department at the moment – you'd think they would be more cautious given their recent cock-up.

Anyone know what's driving it? 
Chingford
London E4
147ft
Brian Gaze
23 January 2023 18:17:43

There does seem to be some mild rampers at the wheel in the Beeb's weather department at the moment – you'd think they would be more cautious given their recent cock-up.

Anyone know what's driving it? 

Originally Posted by: Downpour 



Rather than speculating here about who is a "mild ramper" and who is a "cold ramper" why don't you try asking them on Twitter? I can't speak for individuals but a lot of the Met and BBC folk are very responsive.
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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+2
Snow Hoper
23 January 2023 18:27:17
Not many crumbs for us coldies in the GEFS this evening. High pressure mulling around before the purple washing machine sets up around Greenland. This appears to be the majority decision but time will tell.
Going to war over religion is like killing each other to see who has the better imaginary friend.


Home : Thorndon, Suffolk.
+1
UncleAlbert
23 January 2023 19:57:27
Yes just the chance of one or two of those direct line north westerly blasts courtesy of the strong vortex or maybe the flash of a northerly from a transient split GIN sea area.  Other than that a number of panels here and there have been flirting with the idea of a Scandy high in deep FI but only seems to be noise at this stage.
tallyho_83
23 January 2023 22:10:16
Wow what an amazing flip in a few days with the zonal wind forecast at 10hpa:

Thursday 19th January 23 - Many going weaker and some going for reversal and staying weaker than average as per below:

UserPostedImage

Monday 23rd January 23 - The Very latest - Winds go weaker but none go for a reversal despite a significant warming and then zonal winds strengthen yet again!

UserPostedImage
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
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Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


DPower
23 January 2023 22:40:21
 I think there is a possible window of opportunity due to stratospheric warming and big decrease in zonal winds for a Scandi high to develop in two to three weeks time. Wave breaking from the Pacific side and Siberian side and zonal winds further just above 0m/s could very well lead to a Scandi block hopefully close enough to influence our weather and perhaps bring a potent wintry blast with it for several days. 
Unfortunately the once forecasted split and reversal that the gfs was modelling fairly consistently for about 3 days has long since departed. It could I suppose re-invent itself but I doubt it. 
 
Spring Sun Winter Dread
23 January 2023 23:53:07
I find it hard to believe -9C is the lowest at Heathrow since 2010 even with the last 10 years having been fairly tame for winters.
Feb 2012 saw close to -18C in my area and even just last month Benson got well into negative double figures.
Maybe this is just January but even then Jan 2013 delivered some stunningly cold nights too.
Ally Pally Snowman
24 January 2023 00:04:33

I find it hard to believe -9C is the lowest at Heathrow since 2010 even with the last 10 years having been fairly tame for winters.
Feb 2012 saw close to -18C in my area and even just last month Benson got well into negative double figures.
Maybe this is just January but even then Jan 2013 delivered some stunningly cold nights too.

Originally Posted by: Spring Sun Winter Dread 



It was Heathrow's lowest January night since 1987 which is quite something from such ordinary synoptics .
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Zubzero
24 January 2023 00:32:22

It was Heathrow's lowest January night since 1987 which is quite something from such ordinary synoptics .
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



Been an odd Winter in this regard was -11.2C back in December with snow-cover the coldest night I can remember for Cambridge. Was -8C last night and is -4C atm been one of the best winters I can remember for frosts. The freezing fog and rime before the snow was great to, was -4C Max i think.

As for the outlook "same old" "boring" "A SSW will save us"  spring to mind. 
tallyho_83
24 January 2023 01:59:47

I find it hard to believe -9C is the lowest at Heathrow since 2010 even with the last 10 years having been fairly tame for winters.
Feb 2012 saw close to -18C in my area and even just last month Benson got well into negative double figures.
Maybe this is just January but even then Jan 2013 delivered some stunningly cold nights too.

Originally Posted by: Spring Sun Winter Dread 



Yes me too - what about the BFTE in February /March 2018?
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


Zubzero
24 January 2023 02:51:35

Yes me too - what about the BFTE in February /March 2018?

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 



Was -7.7C In Cambridge on the 28th of Feb 2018. I doubt it was colder at Heathrow. As I said previously I think the minimum here of -11.2C in December was the coldest here since the 80s I think. Been one of the coldest winters here for minimum temperatures to. 
Retron
24 January 2023 04:12:41

Yes me too - what about the BFTE in February /March 2018?

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 


That was more focused over Kent - it went below -14C here, and as low as -17C over the higher parts of the Isle.

Brogdale, a few miles away on the mainland, was the coldest place in the UK that winter, at -14.2C. (Of course, in 2003 it was the hottest place in the UK!)

What was interesting about that BFTE cold spell was how well forecast it was by UKV, the Met Office model. I remember the night before seeing something like -11C forecast for the morning and just laughing out loud: it hadn't even been an especially cold day, several degrees above freezing. Those sort of night time temperatures here hadn't been seen since 1987, and that was much colder air aloft. That said, 850s and thicknesses were at record lows for the end of Feb.
When I got up in the morning it was -8C and the forecast was -13. Maybe, just maybe, I thought, and yes - it actually happened. I made it to work that day (through the snow, didn't go above 20mph even on the dual carriageway), found it closed, went to Tesco (where I was gawped at!), drove home, turned on the news and read about the chaos and how nobody could go anywhere. Whoops!
Here's my station on that day:
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/ILEYSDOW1/graph/2018-02-28/2018-02-28/daily 

No chance of anything so exciting any time soon, of course, it seems like another world. It just goes to show though that you can't write off winter right until the end!
Leysdown, north Kent
Brian Gaze
24 January 2023 08:14:06
Lots of purple on these.

UserPostedImage
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
24 January 2023 08:26:30
Wx temps this morning looking somewhat better for coldies; the freezing weather hangs on for W Europe away from Atlantic coasts and even there it's cool in week 2 (except possibly SW England, extreme W France & Spain), Overall W europe remains below norm, E Europe, though freezing, above norm. Rainfall pattern has also changed: yesterday's 'wodge' of rain over Britain for week 2 has gone and now both weeks are shown with pptn well out into N Atlantic and Med plus a bit over the Alps.

GFS Op shows HP generally centred to the W of Britain until Sun 5th  though later with recurrent N-ly plunges into Europe which could just affect Britain's E coast (Mon 30th Thu 2nd and Sat 4th) . The HP then withdraws to the SW but extends a ridge across Britain with SW-lies though since these SW-lies link to LP over Greenland they may not be mild, esp for Scotland.

ECM is similar to GFS in principle but the LP driving the plunges above is closer and deeper with the promise of a strong cold NW-ly affecting Scotland and N England

GEFS in the S mild at first (doesn't feel like it), cooler Wed 27th, then mean temp close to norm throughout but agreement between ens members breaks down after Sun 29th, small amounts of rain in some runs from Fri 3rd. In Scotland swinging mild-cold-mild-cold before mean settle to norm from Wed 1st at which point any agreement breaks down. Slightly more rain (definitely more in NW) and earlier than in England. Chance of snow in Inverness about 1 in 2 or 3 for much of the time from Fri 29th so expect plenty of mountain snow.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+2
Rob K
24 January 2023 08:42:03

Yes me too - what about the BFTE in February /March 2018?

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 


Heathrow doesn’t really get low minima compared to many places in the SE, as it is quite exposed, urbanised and not in a frost hollow. Quite rare for it even to get below -5C there to be honest. 

In my area we do get much lower temperatures (Farnborough was often one of the coldest places in the UK in cold HP situations although they have removed the weather station now sadly).most winters we will get down to -7 or -8 at least once or twice. This winter we’ve had about four or five that low. 

On Monday morning Odiham got to -8.9C and the second station at Farnborough hit -8.6C. 



 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Brian Gaze
24 January 2023 08:55:08
I recorded -6.9C during the Feb / March 2018 cold snap. In the valley it would probably have been close to -10C I expect.
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Jiries
24 January 2023 10:05:09

Heathrow doesn’t really get low minima compared to many places in the SE, as it is quite exposed, urbanised and not in a frost hollow. Quite rare for it even to get below -5C there to be honest. 

In my area we do get much lower temperatures (Farnborough was often one of the coldest places in the UK in cold HP situations although they have removed the weather station now sadly).most winters we will get down to -7 or -8 at least once or twice. This winter we’ve had about four or five that low. 

On Monday morning Odiham got to -8.9C and the second station at Farnborough hit -8.6C. 



 

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


The reason why they remove interesting cold spot weather stations because they want to make CET scam higher and blame on GW.  I never believe a single thing about CET.  Real truth what is around you feel factor.   
+2
ballamar
24 January 2023 10:25:02
The high looks desperate to retrogress but it’s got on the wrong side of the jet and until that pauses we will be in limbo with a slightly displaced Azores high! 
which is likely to lead to a lovely high over Europe
+1
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