I've been reluctantly roped in to a game of golf around the 5th of February so am pleased to see it preceded by a lengthy dry spell and by the look of the GFS ensembles not especially cold and almost certainly no lying snow. In fact if the latest operational were to hold accurate in 10 days time (unlikely!) it could be quite Springlike.

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The GFS and even ECM continue to please me in terms of looking for a possible shortcut to Spring-like weather. 👍 

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This is bit of a 2018/19 dejavu here when we had a warming in January and February turned out really mild - wonder if Feb 2023 could be similar to that of 2019?

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I feel already in Spring mode and good to know so next month I will have my energy amount drop below the DD amount and go back to credit again, plus side Feb a short month also help as this month just a tad a bit above while Dec was nasty month to me,  Like to see the SSW or whatever to skip it this year especially in Spring not to be cold as 2021. 

Starting to look like February could be very mild once again and Winter will go quietly. I don't think there's been a properly cold February for 32 years now.

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https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?model=gfs&var=2&geoid=48656&lid=ENS&bw=1 

Not outlier as there other members going for above average uppers for my area.  Cyprus will be very cool in early Feb after a very warm Jan so far.

See what the 12z brings, have noticed the 6z does overdo the Atlantic sometimes but possibly just personal perception. 

as long as we dont get another storm eunice I will be happy. Another Feb 1998 would be fine with me. If we cant have snow, then let it be spring

last year was disaster in terms of damage to my property from eunice
 

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GFS 12z shaping up nicely 

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Didn't you do this yesterday with the GFS op run or was that someone else?

It's mild/unsettled or something comments and then boom! a beautiful Scandi HP 🤣

(And yes, it'll probably be unsupported or an outright outlier so very, very unlikely). 

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The Beastlet From The East.

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Lol! Goodluck trying to guess the February CET. GFS is all over the place at the moment.  
 

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Or maybe 12z overdoes the blocking. Great run for cold but we all know unlikely at this stage!
GEM looks like it gets the high into a more favourable position as well

Whilst unlikely at this time the blocking theme is now making a more regular appearance.  Who knows what February could bring. I'm just grateful for the current milder theme that will aid my trip up to Deepdale on Saturday and avoid the risk of a frozen pitch!!

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There's been a few hints over the last couple of days that the unsettled start to Feb might be watered down - okay the GFS op does that in a thoroughly entertaining way but there's been a reasonable number of ens members which keep HP  more influential, alongside the unsettled ones. 

GEMs op is similar and not a million miles away from the GFS op - it doesn't manage to get the HP far enough North for an Easterly here but it is still travelling North by T240. 

It'll be interesting to see the ens later on - I was pretty confident of a return to unsettled weather for the first week in Feb, much more uncertain now. I doubt the GFS op will be right (or remotely similar for the 18z) but wouldn't surprise me if the Southern third of the UK at least sees little or no rain over the next 14 days or so. Whether the HP gets far enough North to cut a mild SW feed off for any of the country is debateable - unlikely based on the last few days of ens suites but could all change.

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Definitely some agreement for blocking over UK in 10 days. Where it goes after will determine a lot of February but stagnated air could get cold as we have already seen this winter. Atlantic doesn’t get much of a look in

and lift off to SSW 
https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/  

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I guess the question at the moment is whether the change to a blocked set-up as suggested by some operational runs is merely unfounded noise which will promptly get binned again, or are they starting to pick up on a clear new signal from somewhere/something.

For me, tomorrow's runs and those over the coming weekend will make for very interesting viewing.

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I do seem to have something of the Midas touch when it comes to the op run at least. Just unfortunately there isn't much support yet in the ensembles for a Scandi high.

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Extract from HippyDave:

  'There's been a few hints over the last couple of days that the unsettled start to Feb might be watered down.......)

​​​​​​Your post overall more a less echoes my thoughts as posted this morning.  IMO a fair reflection of where, according to current data, we appear to be heading in the coming weeks.

What a flip from ECMWF? Never seen such a flip TBH - from what was weaker zonal winds at 10hpa with some going in reverse to now going stronger again for the foreseeable after only 2 days of weaker than average zonal winds! wow! That's really poor model forecasting by the ECMWF. 🙄

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Looking at gefs and ecm, gfs models, I’m pretty confident that to the middle of next week high pressure will be dominating. Just hoping it’s orientation gives us at least some sunny days and cooler nights. 

after that I love the beastearly that’s showing up, but that looks like an outlier for now. I’d like to see more runs joining it before I get too excited. Probably more unsettled and less cold at that range instead but at least not the storm that was showing in fantasy island earlier this week.

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 I think there is a possible window of opportunity due to stratospheric warming and big decrease in zonal winds for a Scandi high to develop in two to three weeks time. Wave breaking from the Pacific side and Siberian side and zonal winds further just above 0m/s could very well lead to a Scandi block hopefully close enough to influence our weather and perhaps bring a potent wintry blast with it for several days. 
Unfortunately the once forecasted split and reversal that the gfs was modelling fairly consistently for about 3 days has long since departed. It could I suppose re-invent itself but I doubt it. 
 
Above is a post I made on the 23rd with regards to a POSSIBLE scandi high development around the start of the second week in February. The only problem with this strat forecast is that we have only got the gfs strat forecasts to rely on. Even so the high res ecm op and control are seeing similar Pacific wave breaking and amplification from the Atlantic sector. It is obviously still no more than a watching brief at the moment especially with there being little support from eps and gefs. 
IF we are to get a Scandi high and subsequent continental airflow I doubt this has anything thing to do with the mjo or aam as is being touted  by some, but more to do with strat forcing.
Strat warmings can of course lead to milder temps as they can push stronger zonal westerly winds down into the troposphere  but with the warming further up not being of sufficient strength to really trouble the vortex.

Met office long touted return to widespread Atlantic wind and rain are looking much less likely now. Thank god. 
Have to say their mid to longer range narrative has been poor this month. 
Let’s see if the contingency planners does a U-turn for the rest of winter in the coming days when it’s released. 
 

A bit annoyed with the poor ECMWF forecast for zonal winds at 10hpa but on the plus side (despite no SSW/wind reversal of zonal flow) we can still get cold weather, - I still feel that we could be in for something from middle of February onwards, BBC forecast continue to forecast this as have the Met Office 10 day trend - recent models have been flirting with the ideal of a Scandinavian high. Models didn't really pick up on this recent cold snap and they never forecast the cold spell in early December which lasted over 2 weeks and whilst there was no big freeze or snow event for many it occurred without a SSW like the current one and as mentioned parts of Cornwall have seen the first proper snow since BFTE last week as well as back in December so could this be the winter of surprises!?

Looking at 18z ENS I notice a dive in uppers around 1st & 2nd starting to become more colder each run - this wasn't forecast a few days ago!



But for now - will take dry weather over anything! - I think most of us will.😀

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