Cold weather and then some appearing in WX temp charts this morning - I'll be pleased if my last night's pessimism is wrong. Week 1 much as yesterday, freezing weather E of a line Balkans - Baltic with an extension to the Alps; then in week 2 the 0C isotherm moves all the way west to cover all but W France and S Spain - and includes much of inland Britain. Quite a change! Pptn in week 1 as ever on N Atlantic and in the Med (plus a little in C Europe) then in week 2 much heavier in C Med while that in the Atlantic clears away to the W. [implication of a frosty rather than snowy period for Britain?]
GFS Op - HP moving up from the SW to a peak centre 1040mb N Ireland Sun 6th; the HP continues to intensify and to form a ridge to Scandinavia with 1050mb being achieved over the E Baltic Fri 10th. [Yesterday's charts show the HP sinking S instead] This directs an E-ly from C Europe across to Britain well established by Sun 12th. Although the HP collapses Thu 16th this allows Arctic air to come S-wards. But such a switch around needs a couple of days of confirmatory charts before confidence is established.
ECM - similar to GFS but the ridge to Scandinavia does not establish fully with the last chart (Fri 10th) placing it over Denmark 1040mb and NE-lies affecting C Europe rather than potentially W to Britain
GEFS - mean temp mostly a little above norm to Mon 6th then several days with it a little below but during this period op & control are either cold or very cold (op. about 15C below norm on Sun 12th). Very dry until Fri 10th after which a little rain in some runs (the coldest runs are the dry ones). Scotland has a short colder period with rain at first.
Interesting, even exciting, but we need more ens members to follow op and control into the freezer; most are much closer to an undistinguished mean and many still above norm.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell
Chichester 12m asl