theweatheroutlook

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ballamar
31 January 2023 10:20:00
Cold getting into the SE at 180 - whether it collapses to be seen but could be a last shot at widespread cold this winter
squish
31 January 2023 10:22:44
Slightly slower but better build to our east/northeast on the 06z. Interesting times!
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
ballamar
31 January 2023 10:26:26
Shunted too far east currently on the Op run can imagine a few members on the ENS will be more favourable with hopefully an uptick in the colder ENS perts
Ally Pally Snowman
31 January 2023 10:42:37

Shunted too far east currently on the Op run can imagine a few members on the ENS will be more favourable with hopefully an uptick in the colder ENS perts

Originally Posted by: ballamar 



Atlantic won the first round but looks like the easterly is having another go on the 6z.
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
westv
31 January 2023 10:49:33

Cold getting into the SE at 180 - whether it collapses to be seen but could be a last shot at widespread cold this winter

Originally Posted by: ballamar 


Time is certainly starting to  run out.
At least it will be mild!
Saint Snow
31 January 2023 10:57:13

Atlantic won the first round but looks like the easterly is having another go on the 6z.
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



Looks like setting up too far south for real cold to get advected over the UK.

I can go back to sleep now.

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Ally Pally Snowman
31 January 2023 11:04:22

Looks like setting up too far south for real cold to get advected over the UK.

I can go back to sleep now.

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 



Yep failed again. Could the story be the Atlantic is to strong for any significant cold to get here this February?
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Quantum
31 January 2023 11:04:28
Fascinating watching the scandi high signal develop over many runs, never quite getting there though.

Will it be a slow trend towards it? Will it suddenly dissapear? Or will we suddenly end up with a beasterly at 120h and wonder how we got there?
 
Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
ballamar
31 January 2023 11:06:31
Unless we get a split between the Azores and sceuro high it is unlikely to bring real cold. Some do develop the low over the med so there is hope! But it is a fairly new scenario the models are getting to grip with. 
Quantum
31 January 2023 11:11:10

Unless we get a split between the Azores and sceuro high it is unlikely to bring real cold. Some do develop the low over the med so there is hope! But it is a fairly new scenario the models are getting to grip with. 

Originally Posted by: ballamar 



Thing is though, this scenario has been present in some ensembles for around 4 days now, but was always a small minority. Now I look at the ensembles and some kind of scandi/sceeuro high is the majority scenario. In order to go full on cold spell, we won't need this trend to continue for much longer although ofc a past trend is no guide as to what will happen in the future.
 
Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Karl Guille
31 January 2023 11:13:15
Very very cold two weeks in store for central and southern Europe if the 6z GFS verifies. Still a chance things could evolve westwards but fascinating to watch either way in the absence of more sustained cold further north and west!
St. Sampson
Guernsey
Quantum
31 January 2023 11:14:41
Looking at the 6Z ensembles, this looks the most promising so far. P13 is particularly quick to develop a deep cold SErly which would surely deliver to many eastern parts. P16 has a more classical looking scandi Easterly that I suspect would be good for SErn parts in particular. There are even a few NErly scenarios such as P26.

 
Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Quantum
31 January 2023 11:17:05

Very very cold two weeks in store for central and southern Europe if the 6z GFS verifies. Still a chance things could evolve westwards but fascinating to watch either way in the absence of more sustained cold further north and west!

Originally Posted by: Karl Guille 



I think even if the deep cold fails to arrive, it will turn very cold indeed at the surface by the end of the first week of February.
UserPostedImage
This kind of thing would be cold at the best of times, but even more so with the continent below average.
 
Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Quantum
31 January 2023 11:20:38
Just had a look at the ECM ensembles. Wow, there are some genuinely very cold scenarios here. Starting to see a handful of -15C runs.
UserPostedImage

If we use the metoffice risk matrix that they use for weather warnings, I'd call this scenario an 'Amber' low risk, high impact!

Interesting model watching times are ahead at the very least.
 
Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
ballamar
31 January 2023 11:35:57
Be interesting if the Met update the wording to include any risk of cold today in the outlook. That is usually a good guidance to how likely it is
Quantum
31 January 2023 11:36:54

Be interesting if the Met update the wording to include any risk of cold today in the outlook. That is usually a good guidance to how likely it is

Originally Posted by: ballamar 



My guess is they'll play it safe with something like this:

"Turning colder at the end of the first week especially in the south but remaining mostly dry"
 
Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Saint Snow
31 January 2023 11:39:13

Unless we get a split between the Azores and sceuro high it is unlikely to bring real cold. Some do develop the low over the med so there is hope!

Originally Posted by: ballamar 




Yep.

At t+234, the hope is that that little low over the UK ploughs ESE'wards towards central Europe/Greece, opening the door for that much deeper low in the Atlantic to follow, sending energy under the Scandy high and so allowing it to ridge westwards toward Greenland and bring a more stable block to our NE.

UserPostedImage

But the Jet and AH have other ideas, so the deeper low heads NNE'wards, and the SH ridges SW'wards to put most of the UK under a SE'ly flow that isn't cold enough for anything enxciting.

Still, all that takes place in FI and, like you say, the models are playing about with different scenarios the past few runs. 

 

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
UncleAlbert
31 January 2023 11:54:30

Thing is though, this scenario has been present in some ensembles for around 4 days now, but was always a small minority. Now I look at the ensembles and some kind of scandi/sceeuro high is the majority scenario. In order to go full on cold spell, we won't need this trend to continue for much longer although ofc a past trend is no guide as to what will happen in the future.
 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Exactly my thoughts, you saved me reiterating my post from earlier.  I suppose the next best thing to an outlier is a persistent outlier!
ballamar
31 January 2023 13:10:00
I still think the 6z overdoes the Atlantic but that again is my own view. The 12z will be telling whether the heights can get in the right position and hold off the push from the jet. Great to see a potential new cold shot as we head into Feb - unusual to get cold each winter month. When March hits I want spring warmth so hopefully get the cold over and done with
ballamar
31 January 2023 16:17:44
Wow the cold comes early on the GFS op run!
Quantum
31 January 2023 16:19:07

Wow the cold comes early on the GFS op run!

Originally Posted by: ballamar 



Indeed, although its a backward step on the ICON.

Interesting to see the ensembles. Will this be the first time the cold becomes the dominant outcome?
 
Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
The Dub Version
31 January 2023 16:36:00

My guess is they'll play it safe with something like this:

"Turning colder at the end of the first week especially in the south but remaining mostly dry"
 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 



today ...

"however there is a small chance of easterly winds developing bringing colder weather and some snow showers."
Updated: 14:00 (UTC) on Tue 31 Jan 2023
Berkshire
Ally Pally Snowman
31 January 2023 16:38:37

today ...

"however there is a small chance of easterly winds developing bringing colder weather and some snow showers."
Updated: 14:00 (UTC) on Tue 31 Jan 2023

Originally Posted by: The Dub Version 



Interesting the Met office have put that in their forecast.
GFS wont have the details right yet but I'd say an easterly is looking more and more likely now.
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
fairweather
31 January 2023 16:44:31
Hopefully this will materialise into a decent cold spell. Otherwise this winter will be filed alongside so many others - one cold spell per winter with a bit of snow for some but not all. I fear that things like six foot snow drifts in the South are something relegated to history now.
S.Essex, 42m ASL
Ally Pally Snowman
31 January 2023 16:45:15
Here come round 2 again at 270h . Block much stronger on the 12z than the 6z. 
 
-15c 850s into Kent. Not bad I suppose!

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=20&model=gfs&var=2&run=12&time=321&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref 
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
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