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Quantum
01 February 2023 11:12:28

Its bollox. like that phantom Greenland high from December. It will be in line with other models by this evening
 

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 



OK I know deep down you are right, but I'm going to play devil's advocate because I want this so much.

Yes the OP's were dissapointing but there has been support for days now on all the ensembles, and yes its been a minority up until very recently but it isn't quite the full picture to say the ECM is completely against it.
 
Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Quantum
01 February 2023 11:13:31

Certainly not on its own in GEFS

Originally Posted by: ballamar 



Up to 192h its not even the coldest (though I suspect it will be further out). Unbelievably good set of runs!

Even if this is a phantom, surely we have a day or so of cracking model watching ahead! The watching is nearly as good as the snow itself.


Edit: at a glance P1,P2,P3,P6,P7,P8,P10,P12,P17,P18,P24,P25,P27,P29 all show cold before T+192, and there will be some runs that develop cold after T+192.


Jesus christ though, check out some of the runs. P24 is particularly crazy.
 
Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Rob K
01 February 2023 11:38:45

The 6Z is 'the one' isn't it.

Has to be the best single run I've seen in years. You could not ask for a more perfect cold spell.
 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 


It's a ridiculously good winter run for the UK. 

First easterly attack, followed by a renewed pulse of cold air from the east, then when that Scandi-strength cold pool to the east is almost exhausted, the high migrates to Greenland to open the door for a full on Arctic onslaught beyond the end of the run. The 450-500 hour charts would be quite something!
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Quantum
01 February 2023 11:41:19

It's a ridiculously good winter run for the UK. 

First easterly attack, followed by a renewed pulse of cold air from the east, then when that Scandi-strength cold pool to the east is almost exhausted, the high migrates to Greenland to open the door for a full on Arctic onslaught beyond the end of the run. The 450-500 hour charts would be quite something!

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Which we can get for the ensembles but not the OP annoyingly.

Maybe P24 will end in a similar way to the OP?
 
Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Quantum
01 February 2023 11:44:00
Why is this place so empty? I know this could be nothing, but its still delicious model watching for a day or two worst case.
 
Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
ballamar
01 February 2023 12:01:05

Why is this place so empty? I know this could be nothing, but its still delicious model watching for a day or two worst case.
 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 


no idea fun to watch even if it doesn’t happen. That op run is the best run I have seen
doctormog
01 February 2023 12:06:58

Why is this place so empty? I know this could be nothing, but its still delicious model watching for a day or two worst case.
 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 



Perhaps because the scenario shown in some of the GFS op runs, including the 06z one is largely outside the reliable timescale and lacking support from other models and its own ensemble data? That and some people prefer milder weather for numerous reasons or anticyclonic easterlies when they do materialise tend to be cool and grey more often than not. 
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Quantum
01 February 2023 12:08:50

Perhaps because the scenario shown in some of the GFS op runs, including the 06z one is largely outside the reliable timescale and lacking support from other models and its own ensemble data? That and some people prefer milder weather for numerous reasons or anticyclonic easterlies when they do materialise tend to be cool and grey more often than not. 

Originally Posted by: doctormog 



True, although the 6Z as it is wouldn't be, though you are ofc right that a very small adjustment could result in that.

Still, its about the journey not the destination right? I've got more total excitement over the years from model watching than I have from snow.

 
Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
TPentlow
01 February 2023 12:13:40
At last the GFS 06z has the pattern nailed on 😂
________________________________________________
Tom (North Northants - 130m asl)
nsrobins
01 February 2023 12:14:51

True, although the 6Z as it is wouldn't be, though you are ofc right that a very small adjustment could result in that.

Still, its about the journey not the destination right? I've got more total excitement over the years from model watching than I have from snow.

 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Agreed. A cat will have the time of it’s life chasing a mouse, but when it’s caught it will often just walk away with the satisfaction of a job well done. When the models are in this mood, the NWP is the mouse, and we are the cats! Only if GFS is anywhere near correct, the mouse will be well worth tasting.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Quantum
01 February 2023 12:16:56

Agreed. A cat will have the time if it’s life chasing a mouse, but when it’s caught it will often just walk away with the satisfaction of a job well done. When the models are in this mood, the NWP is the mouse, and we are the cats! Only if GFS is anywhere near correct, the mouse will be well worth tasting.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 



That's very true, there have been very few times when I have actually not been dissapointed with the actual cold spell. And actually I don't think I've been satisfied since the early tenties (at least in the winter, there have been some crazy spring cold spells recently). For me 2018 BFTE was a bust, most of the snow ended up in SE Scotland, the -16C uppers did nothing for me in the way they did do something in March 2013.
 
Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Retron
01 February 2023 12:18:04

Why is this place so empty? I know this could be nothing, but its still delicious model watching for a day or two worst case.
 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 


It's because we've seen it all before over the past 25 years or so.

I'll not get excited until the other models pick it up TBH, and even then it'll be with caution!
Leysdown, north Kent
Quantum
01 February 2023 12:19:35

It's because we've seen it all before over the past 25 years or so.

I'll not get excited until the other models pick it up TBH, and even then it'll be with caution!

Originally Posted by: Retron 



Deep down we all know, its not going to happen, but usually people still get to enjoy the ride!
Is it a lack of new members thing? Do we need those naive newbies who still have hope and dreams?
 
Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Whether Idle
01 February 2023 12:28:19
Most model watchers have had their dreams destroyed. annually since 1997. 
Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Snow Hoper
01 February 2023 12:39:13

Deep down we all know, its not going to happen, but usually people still get to enjoy the ride!
Is it a lack of new members thing? Do we need those naive newbies who still have hope and dreams?
 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 



Some of us are lurking. Too afraid to peep from behind the curtain incase it goes wrong again. Like Darren says, we need more CMS before we can start to even remotely smile at a possibility.
Going to war over religion is like killing each other to see who has the better imaginary friend.


Home : Thorndon, Suffolk.
+1
Jiries
01 February 2023 13:21:06

It's because we've seen it all before over the past 25 years or so.

I'll not get excited until the other models pick it up TBH, and even then it'll be with caution!

Originally Posted by: Retron 



Wise move and like myself have total 0% trust with models than 100% trusted in the old days of tele text, ceefax, newspapers and TV forecasters.  Old forecasters were paid to forecast what it coming and not the preference forecasters we having lately.
+1
Crepuscular Ray
01 February 2023 13:22:25
I'm behind the sofa, peeping out occasionally. That GFS run would be incredible and eventually would give Edinburgh another December 2010 or BFTE, both of which gave us 12"+  with heavy snow showers for days on end! Back behind the sofa until late afternoon 😬
Jerry
Edinburgh, in the frost hollow below Blackford Hill
Saint Snow
01 February 2023 13:26:23

It's because we've seen it all before over the past 25 years or so.

Originally Posted by: Retron 



There was something really enjoyable about those first TWO years with the blind optimism every winter, all being fanned by some proper charlatans. 

 

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
fairweather
01 February 2023 13:30:55

The middle part of the 06Z GFS run is laden full of Kent Clipper potential, but I'm also full of model fatique. 😂 I'll wait until if ECM and UKMO come on board within the 144 hrs range and it'll still be chasing rainbows. 

Originally Posted by: idj20 


😀 At least the days are gone when we used to go all in as well based on one GFS op run. 😃
S.Essex, 42m ASL
SnowyHythe(Kent)
01 February 2023 13:53:58
Retron has posted. Nailed on BFTE on the way..😄
nsrobins
01 February 2023 14:02:18

Most model watchers have had their dreams destroyed. annually since 1997. 

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 


With some of the classic disappointments we’ve endured over the years it’s not just one’s dreams that feel destroyed 😲😂
The macroscale global drivers (NH specifically) don’t lend themselves to a sturdy Scandy high, which makes the current lack of cross-model support even more suspicious. The fun is not really knowing if GFS is on to something, but we won’t have to wait long. Get this within 5 days and we’ll know one way or the other. Dare I say ‘blend’?
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
01 February 2023 14:20:26
So no-one wants to hear from ECM or GEM? No surprise as both have strong  SW-lies by Sat 11th, none of GFS' bEastliness.

But it's when models disagree that weather watching gets interesting.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
overland
01 February 2023 14:39:40
For me it is often the case that the chase is more exciting than the actual event, partly as we live in one of the less snowy places of the UK. However, this is countered by getting vicarious pleasure from snow reports elsewhere. The initial excitement is in a cold chart appearing as an op and then, as DEW says, we have the tension of lack of CMA. If were luckily, there is then some sort of agreement with the occasional stress of the odd rogue run and then finally the actual event which rarely matches the expectation (2010 an other earlier events notwithstanding).

 
Mumbles, Swansea. 80m asl
Bolty
01 February 2023 14:40:52
A remarkable divergence between the GFS and ECM this afternoon. The GFS is going all out, with some impressive charts for cold weather fans, whilst the ECM is having none of it, with the Atlantic pushing through fairly quickly. It just shows how critical the exact position of these blocking highs are.

GFS:
UserPostedImageUserPostedImageUserPostedImage
ECM
UserPostedImageUserPostedImage
Whatever happens, one of the models is going to be spectacularly wrong!
Scott
Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.
My weather station 
Quantum
01 February 2023 14:41:34

For me it is often the case that the chase is more exciting than the actual event, partly as we live in one of the less snowy places of the UK. However, this is countered by getting vicarious pleasure from snow reports elsewhere. The initial excitement is in a cold chart appearing as an op and then, as DEW says, we then have the tension of lack of CMA. If were luckily, there is then some sort of agreement with the occasional stress of the odd rogue run and then finally the actual event which rarely matches the expectation (2010 an other earlier events notwithstanding).

 

Originally Posted by: overland 



2005 was such an amazing event for me, arguably even close to 2010 even though it only lasted a week. That exceeded expectations, although forecasts were probably bad at picking up small scale features back then.
 
Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
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