theweatheroutlook

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Ally Pally Snowman
01 February 2023 07:00:17
GFS looking very isolated this morning sadly.  Lots of dry weather though. 
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
nsrobins
01 February 2023 07:01:23
Bit if a reality check this morning. UKM not interested in any significant move of heights NE and trends flat. EC hinting but not on the program. GFS looking very isolated and it’s suite confirms that. 
The chances of an easterly next week on thin ice, but not resolved yet. GFS has a habit of pulling rabbits from the hat and the others play catch up. 
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Snow Hoper
01 February 2023 07:02:34
The SH signal is definitely there. The models not quite sure what to do or where to place it just yet.
Going to war over religion is like killing each other to see who has the better imaginary friend.


Home : Thorndon, Suffolk.
doctormog
01 February 2023 07:12:39
The overall consensus, as much as there is one, is still for high pressure to the E or SE and in close proximity to the UK leading to anticyclonic conditions for most areas. There is a chance for a Scandinavian High but equally the chances for a Euro High among the options.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
01 February 2023 07:41:08
WX temps still bringing freezing weather steadily westwards over the next two weeks but halting it as it reaches the Channel with Britain cold rather than freezing. Pptn staying in the N Atlantic (but in week 2 including W Britain unlike yesterday) and in N Med, with a little in C Europe week 1.

GFS Op building HP to 1045mb Ireland Sun 5th before it moves NE finishing at 1055mb E Baltic Thu 9th with cold E-lies across Europe just about reaching SE England. A new HP sets up W of Ireland with cold air trapped between it and the Baltic HP from Denmark down to Greece, and E Britain on the fringe of this, persisting for most of a week. Both HPs then decline allowing a cold zonal set-up by Fri 17th driven by LPs 975 mb mid-Norway and 990mb Greenland.

ECM is not promoting cold weather unlike the above. It keeps the HP over Britain after Thu 9th directing the cold thrust down towards Italy, and keeping the cold there as the HP stays in C Europe, to 1040mb Romania Sat 11th. At this time LP has deepened near Iceland 965mb and Britain is under Sw-lies.

GEFS in England has mean temp near norm except for a cold few days around Wed 8th (in the S, op and control v cold at this time, and op staying low as an outlier). Bits and pieces of rain in a few ens members later on. Scotland although temps up and down at first misses the colder period; rain minimal in east but quite persistent in W after Wed 8th. 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+3
Downpour
01 February 2023 09:09:52
Forget the models. All eyes will be on Kidlington Kieren tomorrow for Moomintroll Day. Will he see his shadow and predict six weeks of raging zonality?
Chingford
London E4
147ft
David M Porter
01 February 2023 09:26:06

Bit if a reality check this morning. UKM not interested in any significant move of heights NE and trends flat. EC hinting but not on the program. GFS looking very isolated and it’s suite confirms that. 
The chances of an easterly next week on thin ice, but not resolved yet. GFS has a habit of pulling rabbits from the hat and the others play catch up. 

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 



I think someone mentioned in here yesterday of how GFS was the first model to spot the exceptionally hot spell last July at a very early stage, around two weeks before it happened if I recall rightly. Also, I think the GFS ops last November were indicating, at certain times anyway, that there would  be a rise in pressure to the NE around the end of November/start of December, setting us up for the early-mid December cold spell.
Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
The Beast from the East
01 February 2023 09:43:00

I think someone mentioned in here yesterday of how GFS was the first model to spot the exceptionally hot spell last July at a very early stage, around two weeks before it happened if I recall rightly. Also, I think the GFS ops last November were indicating, at certain times anyway, that there would  be a rise in pressure to the NE around the end of November/start of December, setting us up for the early-mid December cold spell.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 



GFS has performed poorly recently. In December it was on its own in predicting a cold xmas period and a greenland block

Its totally leading us up the garden path again. At least it looks mainly dry for the south and should be very springlike as greece gets the cold as normal in modern winters


 
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Arbroath 1320
01 February 2023 09:43:23
Looking at the general pattern, I'd say a Scandi High/cold Easterly next week is fairly unlikely. The GFS model has been toying with this scenario, but the bottom line is that there is too much energy in the Greenland/Iceland area and not enough energy to our SW to sustain any HLB.

The most likely scenario going forward as we head into the first half of February is a continuation of mid-latitude blocking with incursions of unsettled Atlantic weather into the NW of the UK. 
GGTTH
Quantum
01 February 2023 09:45:41
Its quite an interesting pattern. We have almost record cold developing off the eastern seaboard which will push frigid air into the atlantic. This inevitably causes massive cyclogenesis and strengthens the jet. Usually this would just plough through the UK and turn it mild and unsettled. But instead the jet turns north towards greenland and generates this insane pressure gradient which could result in a record strength anticyclone. The precise position of this anticyclone then determines what happens in the UK.

Still, perhaps the models won't fully understand this until the deep low has developed and its downstream effects resolved.
 
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
+1
Saint Snow
01 February 2023 09:47:43
Wonder if the 6z will crank up the roller coaster and send the Winter Optimism Index soaring again?

😁

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Hippydave
01 February 2023 09:48:10
Not sure an enormous amount has changed this morning in terms of the general pattern/most likely mid term evolution.

Probably HP dominated for a few days, average to chilly more likely than overly mild or cold albeit a low chance of either mild/very mild if the HP is further south or cold/very cold if it's far enough north to bring in an easterly. Given the general consensus is for HP to move about I imagine it'll be mild/grey as it nudges in from the Atlantic, chilly/grey as it develops and ridges north, then milder again as the pattern flattens possibly with the far SE maintaining cooler air for a bit longer depending on how quickly the HP is pushed south and how far.

ECM ens IMBY have a similar (to 12z) very small number of what are presumably easterlies judging by temps. Overall though the temps have nudged up a degree or so in the period 7-12th, suggesting HP is not as far north as the 12z set.

I guess the other thing to look for is a second bite of the cherry - there's presumably something in the setup that makes HP forming over Scandi possible, so if that persists we may get attempt 2 a week or so after the first attempt, assuming as looks likely the first attempt fails.  
Home: Tunbridge Wells
Work: Tonbridge
fairweather
01 February 2023 09:52:06
Something to bear in mind, for those like me that just take a quick look at the ensembles when nothing much is going on, is that around February 9th the long term mean hits it lowest of the winter around -3C. (London, 850 hPas).  A quick glance and you see values just below the mean and think, ah, nothing cold, but they are mostly around -6C at this time of year. It doesn't take much of a dip to be quite cold.
S.Essex, 42m ASL
+1
Quantum
01 February 2023 10:21:31
The wierd thing is that the 6Z, taken literally, would take the deepest cold over the UK in the entire winter. Its a very very cold pattern especially for the SE (and quite snowy in the SE too). But doesn't take much for it to be a nothingburger like some of the other models suggest.
 
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
The Beast from the East
01 February 2023 10:25:10

The wierd thing is that the 6Z, taken literally, would take the deepest cold over the UK in the entire winter. Its a very very cold pattern especially for the SE (and quite snowy in the SE too). But doesn't take much for it to be a nothingburger like some of the other models suggest.
 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Its bollox. like that phantom Greenland high from December. It will be in line with other models by this evening
 
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
ballamar
01 February 2023 10:26:15
6z keeps the hope alive with a very cold spell next week. Definitely conflicting output with a slight adjustment south/north on the models makes all the difference. Was very wrong yesterday thinking UKMO would come onboard, interesting GFS op is continuing with a very cold outlook
Rob K
01 February 2023 10:33:23

Wonder if the 6z will crank up the roller coaster and send the Winter Optimism Index soaring again?

😁

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


Erm... yes!

But it is very much out on its own, with ECM, UKMO and GEM all saying "forget about it".
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
idj20
01 February 2023 10:38:18
The middle part of the 06Z GFS run is laden full of Kent Clipper potential, but I'm also full of model fatique. 😂 I'll wait until if ECM and UKMO come on board within the 144 hrs range and it'll still be chasing rainbows. 
Folkestone Harbour. 
warrenb
01 February 2023 10:38:42
Looking at the previous 4 runs of the GFS I think it has just pushed all of it chips to the middle of the table with the 6z.
Tonbridge 45m 
ballamar
01 February 2023 10:42:03
Possibly the craziest run I have seen for a while GFS 6z op run. Would cause a few countrywide issues but seems to be highly unlikely at the moment as it’s on its own. But is run off the latest data. 
if it did come of I might walk to Calais from Dover !
Ally Pally Snowman
01 February 2023 10:42:47
Ridiculous 6z very cold and very snowy.
Hell of a coup if GFS is on the money.
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
ballamar
01 February 2023 10:54:03

Ridiculous 6z very cold and very snowy.
Hell of a coup if GFS is on the money.
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


possibly the coldest run I have seen chances of it happening……same as Trump
nsrobins
01 February 2023 10:58:10

Its bollox. like that phantom Greenland high from December. It will be in line with other models by this evening
 

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


One of your classic posts that pretty much guarantee an easterly 😂👍
 
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
ballamar
01 February 2023 11:05:33
Certainly not on its own in GEFS
Quantum
01 February 2023 11:10:03
The 6Z is 'the one' isn't it.

Has to be the best single run I've seen in years. You could not ask for a more perfect cold spell.
 
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.

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