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Brian Gaze
01 February 2023 16:53:19
UK Met Global 12z still not interested. 

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Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Ally Pally Snowman
01 February 2023 16:54:57
Hmmmm GEFS 12z nowhere near as good . 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
ballamar
01 February 2023 17:18:51

Hmmmm GEFS 12z nowhere near as good . 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



the 6z spoiled us - will be charts for the memory
Hippydave
01 February 2023 17:18:53

UK Met Global 12z still not interested. 

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 



It's not but equally it's not as flat as it has been, with the end result being a more HP dominated run. I doubt it'll move far enough to get to the GFS style solution but it's moved a little way.

I suspect the GFS op will move more in line with the UKM/ECM*/GEM tomorrow and move HP far enough south that the colder uppers miss us. Seems unlikely it'll keep going off on a cold one for much longer given it's ens and all the other models.
Home: Tunbridge Wells
Work: Tonbridge
ballamar
01 February 2023 17:24:34
No doubt ECM will come up with a Stella run this evening just to confuse the situation 
nsrobins
01 February 2023 17:28:18

No doubt ECM will come up with a Stella run this evening just to confuse the situation 

Originally Posted by: ballamar 


Who knows, but it looks like GFS has given its head a wobble after the Carlsberg 06Z run. All part of the entertainment.
 
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Gusty
01 February 2023 17:28:35

No doubt ECM will come up with a Stella run this evening just to confuse the situation 

Originally Posted by: ballamar 



That you can guarantee !

Likely outcome is we remain high pressure dominated with a cold easterly waft across the south next week. 
Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



The Beast from the East
01 February 2023 17:51:03

Errm, yeah! 🤣

I know what you mean, though, it is doggedly sticking with a colder outcome, even if it's dialled back somewhat in the 12z. Still nothing more than a raised eyebrow at this stage though, as the other models still aren't interested...

Originally Posted by: Retron 


Almost a re run of what happened in mid December
GFS only model which showed a greenland block and a possible white xmas period. Persisted for days, only to flip into line with other models

Just because we get most data 4 times a day from this model, it gets too much attention 
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Jiries
01 February 2023 18:19:02

That you can guarantee !

Likely outcome is we remain high pressure dominated with a cold easterly waft across the south next week. 

Originally Posted by: Gusty 


Look like drier air and sunny one as the way it sit thst normally give is low 30s in summer. Regardless the surface temps the heating costs will be lower due to more stronger Feb  solar input for indoors to warm up so heating on 1 or 2 hrs in evening only.  
+1
Taylor1740
01 February 2023 18:51:39
Looks like game over already for the Easterly unfortunately. A shame but looks like another Winter will pass us by without a proper Easterly.
NW Leeds - 150m amsl
Ally Pally Snowman
01 February 2023 18:53:26
ECM says no. Looks like GFS needs a reboot.
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
nsrobins
01 February 2023 19:08:00

ECM says no. Looks like GFS needs a reboot.
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


No to who? The corresponding 12Z EC chart from yesterday or the other NWP from today. IMO it has moved a decent way towards the easterly solution and at 240 it is attempting a proper push with heights to the NE - a discernible change from the 12Z chart yesterday.
No forecast from me ~ with the current flux that is next to impossible. 
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
DPower
01 February 2023 19:15:03
The euro's backtracking slightly towards the gfs in the 72 - 120 time frame. Could not say which way this will go but would not be at all surprised to see a blended solution with the euro's leaning more towards the gfs than the other way round.
What a cracking 06z run though eh. Shame could not get excited by it due to what the Euro's were showing.
Snow Hoper
01 February 2023 19:48:55

UserPostedImage
Differences in the Lobe strength apparant as early as T+60h.
Look at how high the uncertainty is compared to everywhere else on the planet.
 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 



If you watch Aiden McGivern on the Meto 10 day trend, he seems to suggest that it's a low in the Med that's the driving force for the cold, with its placement being the key.

https://fb.watch/iqwCio_JcS/ 
Going to war over religion is like killing each other to see who has the better imaginary friend.


Home : Thorndon, Suffolk.
Rob K
01 February 2023 20:16:51

Looks like game over already for the Easterly unfortunately. A shame but looks like another Winter will pass us by without a proper Easterly.

Originally Posted by: Taylor1740 


Even if this one fails (as is likely) there is still plenty of winter left.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Karl Guille
01 February 2023 20:40:40
Low pressure over the northern med (ideally France / Italy region) is a pre-requiste for cold air to advect westwards into France / UK.  Currently looks unlikely that a proper injection of cold will ensue from the current set up (given lack of current other model support for GFS option) but still time for change in the next 24/48 hours. This has always represented the best chance of an 'ice day' IMBY!
St. Sampson
Guernsey
idot
  • idot
  • Advanced Member
01 February 2023 20:46:28

Even if this one fails (as is likely) there is still plenty of winter left.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 



except that in 4 weeks time it will probably warm enough to sit outside in a t-shirt and that in two weeks time the sun will be too strong for any long lived snow event that we all want. 

It seems the window is so brief in these modern winters

😁😟🐍
https://twitter.com/JohnathanSizz 

 
Gandalf The White
01 February 2023 21:10:10

except that in 4 weeks time it will probably warm enough to sit outside in a t-shirt and that in two weeks time the sun will be too strong for any long lived snow event that we all want. 

It seems the window is so brief in these modern winters

😁😟🐍

Originally Posted by: idot 



The strength of the sun in the last week of February is the same as it is in mid-October. I think t-shirts outside are exceedingly rare on a cool October day.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


+2
Chunky Pea
01 February 2023 21:58:59

except that in 4 weeks time it will probably warm enough to sit outside in a t-shirt

😁😟🐍

Originally Posted by: idot 


providing there is no wind! Reached a well above average 10c here today but that wind made it feel more like -10c. 🥶
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
+1
Quantum
01 February 2023 21:59:02
Lobe looking broadly the same at T+72h on the GFS18Z.

Nothing major expected in terms of upgrade or downgrade.

EDIT: Lobe at T+96h is stronger. Expecting a substantial downgrade :(

EDIT2: Subtantial looking like the wrong word! The weaker lobe doesn't seem to have made much impact suprisingly. Still, its alot weaker than the ECM12z e.c.t. anyway.


 
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Quantum
01 February 2023 22:08:22
OK comparing T+132h between GFS18Z and GFS12Z, the pattern doesn't look much worse (if at all worse on the 18Z) although the high is a bit further south. The lobe being a bit stronger is clearly still having an impact (in a negitive way). Since the 6Z the lobe has trended stronger on the GFS, this is not great if this trend continues.
 
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Quantum
01 February 2023 22:12:57
Worth noting that the slight trend to strengthen the iceland lobe on the GFS is still a gulf away from the other models.

ICON 18Z has a central 500hpa height of around 500dm at T+72h
GFS 12Z doesn't have a central height because there is no closed circulation, but in roughly the same spot the height is 510dm
The GFS6Z at the same time was maybe 511dm or 512dm.




 
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
crazysaint
01 February 2023 22:26:25
GFS really not letting go of it's path currently
Wickham, Fareham, Hants
+1
squish
01 February 2023 22:32:05
But of a pub run ! 
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
+1

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