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nsrobins
02 February 2023 07:15:20

You'd have to think the GFS Op will come into line later today. 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


I agree with this and Michael makes good points, but it’s the consistency of the GFS OP that I find remarkable. One or two going against its own suite and the other NWP (for simplicity EC and UKM) is typical but 5 or so OP runs in sequence showing broadly the same solution and one that is starkly different to the opposition is remarkable.
Dog with a bone doesn’t do it justice.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
doctormog
02 February 2023 07:36:03
You’re right Neil and it would be remarkable and fascinating if the high res GFS runs end up being closer the actual outcome. As you say the consistency in the face of “adversity” is notable!
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Rob K
02 February 2023 07:41:27
We’ve seen it so many times though in winter: the GFS doggedly sticking to a winter wonderland scenario while all the other models have long since cottoned onto reality. Then it suddenly flips, usually to an even milder run than the other models, and all sign of cold weather vanished from the ensemble in a single run. 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Retron
02 February 2023 07:53:38

We’ve seen it so many times though in winter: the GFS doggedly sticking to a winter wonderland scenario while all the other models have long since cottoned onto reality. Then it suddenly flips, usually to an even milder run than the other models, and all sign of cold weather vanished from the ensemble in a single run. 

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Just one of the 51 EPS members (0z today) goes below -10C at 850 in the next week for London:

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/opencharts_meteogram?base_time=202302020000&epsgram=classical_plume&lat=51.5084&lon=-0.125533&station_name=London 

That compares with 9 out of 31 for the GEFS.

It really is quite an amazing contrast!
Leysdown, north Kent
Brian Gaze
02 February 2023 08:04:44
No support for GEFS from MOGREPS-G either.

UserPostedImage
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
ballamar
02 February 2023 08:14:12
I think from experience a big change from cold to mild is a lot more probable, but I do wonder what the big difference in the models is causing this. As far as I know there is now weight given to any outcome so no doubt after this we might get another  version of an op run and gets a rewrite!
Brian Gaze
02 February 2023 08:24:05

I think from experience a big change from cold to mild is a lot more probable, but I do wonder what the big difference in the models is causing this. As far as I know there is now weight given to any outcome so no doubt after this we might get another  version of an op run and gets a rewrite!

Originally Posted by: ballamar 



The GFS is constantly being developed and this won't change the schedule at all. There is usually one minor upgrade per year with major ones being less frequent. 
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
02 February 2023 08:28:06
WX charts (based IIRC on the GFS Op) still keeping most of Europe in the freezer week 1 and extending that to Britain in week 2. Only Med coasts hanging on to any milder conditions. Pptn week 1 out on the Atlantic plus Alps down to E Med; week 2 a broad band from W France through to Turkey plus the Norwegian coast, Britain in a small drier patch.

GFS Op - HP off W of Ireland moving to S Norway 1045b Wed 8th setting up an E-ly drift across Europe, some v cold air close to SE England by Sat 11th while pressure rises over Greenland 1045mb with ridge to Scotland. Pressure continues to rise over Greenland while dropping over the Baltic 995mb Thu 16th with arctic N-lies for Britain.

ECM - could scarcely be more different. HP moves across Britain Wed 8th and is centred Hungary 1045mb Fri 10th with strong W-lies from the Atlantic stretching across Norway to Siberia, these interrupted by a local deep depression 975mb Sat 11th off NW Scotland. Pressure over Greenland remains low ca 990mb.

FAX like GFS puts HP in the Baltic but a much larger area, pushing the E-lies down into Italy Mon 6th with LP 1011mb in the Tyrrhenian.

GEM also puts the HP into Hungary, 1040mb  Fri 10th and still there Sun 12th with S-lies for Britain.

GEFS temps near norm for now, dropping to 5C below norm for a time around Thu 9th in the S (nearer norm in N) before rising to norm again Mon 13th taking most of the ens members with it though Op and 3 or 4 ens members remain ultra-cold (8-10C below norm). Little prospect of rain before the 13th and not much then. 

Rare and interesting to see so much difference between models at such short range.

I'm away from today until Sun 12th so experiencing the uncertainty in C Europe at first hand, but I don't expect to be posting reviews for the next 10 days. There's plenty of chatter in this thread to take up the space😀
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+7
Snow Hoper
02 February 2023 08:50:18
Either last year or the year before, both the euro model and UKMO were dogidly stuck forecasting a cold spell, with the GFS blatantly refusing. We all watched and commented that the GFS would soon come into line as the time approached, but it never did. Instead, we ended up with the inevitable blended solution whereby we didn't get a cold spell, but equally the GFS was wrong too. I have a feeling it'll go the same way. No snowmageddon, but not mild westerlies either. Something more like a gentle drift from the east bringing cold frosty dry weather again, with fog being the main problem.
Going to war over religion is like killing each other to see who has the better imaginary friend.


Home : Thorndon, Suffolk.
Rob K
02 February 2023 08:58:15

I have a feeling it'll go the same way. No snowmageddon, but not mild westerlies either. Something more like a gentle drift from the east bringing cold frosty dry weather again, with fog being the main problem.

Originally Posted by: Snow Hoper 


Yup, if in doubt, back the blandest possible outcome and you’ll be right 80% of the time!
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
+1
Jiries
02 February 2023 09:09:02

Yup, if in doubt, back the blandest possible outcome and you’ll be right 80% of the time!

Originally Posted by: Rob K 



Yes thanks to all useless models always give us most boring weather all the time.   
jhall
02 February 2023 09:22:26
It's been remarkable over recent days how the operational runs of the GFS and the main European models (ECMWF and UKMO) have stuck to their respective guns in showing quite different solutions. With the critical point drawing closer and closer, it will be fascinating to see which faction "blinks first" and backs down. (To anthropomorphise the models terribly.)
Cranleigh, Surrey
David M Porter
02 February 2023 09:36:16

One thing I have noticed this morning is that although the UKMO, ECM and GEM 00z runs don't go for the easterly a la GFS, what those runs do indicate as far as I can see is a slight weakening of the low heights to the north & north-west. At least in as much as the pink and black colours disappear and what is left is just blue.

It seems as though it is the developments over Greenland that is causing the biggest headache for the models at the moment, from what I can see.
Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
fairweather
02 February 2023 09:39:58

WX charts (based IIRC on the GFS Op) still keeping most of Europe in the freezer week 1 and extending that to Britain in week 2. Only Med coasts hanging on to any milder conditions. Pptn week 1 out on the Atlantic plus Alps down to E Med; week 2 a broad band from W France through to Turkey plus the Norwegian coast, Britain in a small drier patch.

GFS Op - HP off W of Ireland moving to S Norway 1045b Wed 8th setting up an E-ly drift across Europe, some v cold air close to SE England by Sat 11th while pressure rises over Greenland 1045mb with ridge to Scotland. Pressure continues to rise over Greenland while dropping over the Baltic 995mb Thu 16th with arctic N-lies for Britain.

ECM - could scarcely be more different. HP moves across Britain Wed 8th and is centred Hungary 1045mb Fri 10th with strong W-lies from the Atlantic stretching across Norway to Siberia, these interrupted by a local deep depression 975mb Sat 11th off NW Scotland. Pressure over Greenland remains low ca 990mb.

FAX like GFS puts HP in the Baltic but a much larger area, pushing the E-lies down into Italy Mon 6th with LP 1011mb in the Tyrrhenian.

GEM also puts the HP into Hungary, 1040mb  Fri 10th and still there Sun 12th with S-lies for Britain.

GEFS temps near norm for now, dropping to 5C below norm for a time around Thu 9th in the S (nearer norm in N) before rising to norm again Mon 13th taking most of the ens members with it though Op and 3 or 4 ens members remain ultra-cold (8-10C below norm). Little prospect of rain before the 13th and not much then. 

Rare and interesting to see so much difference between models at such short range.

I'm away from today until Sun 12th so experiencing the uncertainty in C Europe at first hand, but I don't expect to be posting reviews for the next 10 days. There's plenty of chatter in this thread to take up the space😀

Originally Posted by: DEW 



Thanks  for these updates and enjoy your break. We'll do our best with some conflicting posts cold vs mild. 😀
S.Essex, 42m ASL
The Beast from the East
02 February 2023 09:42:42
06z rolling now, crucial lobe bit coming up now. Will it finally come into line?
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
David M Porter
02 February 2023 09:50:27

06z rolling now, crucial lobe bit coming up now. Will it finally come into line?

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 



06z looks identical to the 00z so far.
Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
ballamar
02 February 2023 10:04:53
Slowly the dream is fading!
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
02 February 2023 10:07:56
The Swiss Met service and Accuweather both suggest disturbed weather in E Switzerland until Monday, then fine for a few days, and not particularly cold by Swiss standards
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Taylor1740
02 February 2023 10:13:30
Looks like GFS is now starting to move towards the other models, is it time to throw in the towel now?

Either way it doesn't look all that mild next week even if we miss out on a proper Easterly.
NW Leeds - 150m amsl
The Beast from the East
02 February 2023 10:13:48
yes, GFS finally waking up and once again lifting the mini skirt to draw us in and raise hopes only to be dashed again
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Quantum
02 February 2023 10:13:54
Yikes. Lobe stronger on the 6z. Clearly there is still some wiggle room but there is now a trend on the gfs to strengthen the lobe. This will kill the cold spell if it keeps happening. Even so it's still v weak compared to ECM
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Ally Pally Snowman
02 February 2023 10:17:28
Lol GFS 6z still manages to get -10c 850s to the UK in under a week but it's very unconvincing this time. 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Jiries
02 February 2023 10:20:28

yes, GFS finally waking up and once again lifting the mini skirt to draw us in and raise hopes only to be dashed again

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Told you so all useless any model anyway. 
warrenb
02 February 2023 10:33:09
GFS det has been all over the place since the upgrade. Ens have never taken to this easterly with the Det a huge outlier on most runs. 
Tonbridge 45m 
Russwirral
02 February 2023 10:36:21
Weirdly, im quite happy to see downgrades on the GFS today. Im off to Malaga next thurs and up until a week agao it looked to be about 19-20*c.... but recent forecasts have been thundery and 13*c... not quite the golf i had planned mid winter.

Fingers crossed for better Iberic weather

Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 

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