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The Beast from the East
23 May 2023 08:34:39
Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President
Jiries
24 May 2023 08:39:54
The current SSW that destroyed Spring for us here now causing unseasonable cool and wet weather in the Med which moved east to hit Cyprus with lot of rain and storms yesterday and after the rain hit in Nicosia from the max of 26c fell to 19C at 4pm so that jolly cool for late May.  Lowest May max in the past was 16C at the early stage of the month but unheard to be near end of the month.  More rain forecast there and unseasonable cool as low as 5C below average to mid 20's,.  Normally May average start at 27C to 33C by end of the month so that overall mean average is 30C. 
picturesareme
25 May 2023 17:17:58
+1
polarwind
25 May 2023 20:51:46

The current SSW that destroyed Spring for us here now causing unseasonable cool and wet weather in the Med which moved east to hit Cyprus with lot of rain and storms yesterday and after the rain hit in Nicosia from the max of 26c fell to 19C at 4pm so that jolly cool for late May.  Lowest May max in the past was 16C at the early stage of the month but unheard to be near end of the month.  More rain forecast there and unseasonable cool as low as 5C below average to mid 20's,.  Normally May average start at 27C to 33C by end of the month so that overall mean average is 30C. 

Originally Posted by: Jiries 



Earlier, I observed that in IMO, since last November, the general circulation in the North Atlantic resembled that of the 60's and 70's.
And I don't think its changed much recently.
So..... what were May temperatures like in the Med then?
"The professional standards of science must impose a framework of discipline and at the same time encourage rebellion against it". – Michael Polyani (1962)
"If climate science is sound and accurate, then it should be able to respond effectively to all the points raised…." - Grandad
"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts". - Bertrand Russell
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts" – Richard Feynman
"A consensus means that everyone agrees to say collectively what no one believes individually.”- Abba Eban, Israeli diplomat
Dave,Derby
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
25 May 2023 21:13:35
Mawar comment moved to Hurricane/tropical storm thread
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Jiries
25 May 2023 21:46:47

Earlier, I observed that in IMO, since last November, the general circulation in the North Atlantic resembled that of the 60's and 70's.
And I don't think its changed much recently.
So..... what were May temperatures like in the Med then?

Originally Posted by: polarwind 



I think used to be 27C in Nicosia in May in the 60's then 28C in the 70's, 20C in the 80;s and 90s then 30C in 00's to 10s then his decade 32C but this year up to date drop back to 29C.  So sure that the rest of the med was 3-4C cooler in the past. 
polarwind
29 May 2023 09:44:30

I think used to be 27C in Nicosia in May in the 60's then 28C in the 70's, 20C in the 80;s and 90s then 30C in 00's to 10s then his decade 32C but this year up to date drop back to 29C.  So sure that the rest of the med was 3-4C cooler in the past. 

Originally Posted by: Jiries 

Yes, cooler in the 60' and 70's, than in more recent times.
The general N. Atlantic circulation pattern of recent months, and in particular, the near position of the Azores High to the SW of us, increases the frequency of Northerly and cooler winds into the Mediterranean and the attendant low pressure systems and heavy rain and which some areas have recently witnessed.
I wonder whether floods in the Med. were more common in the 60's and 70's when the Azores High was similarly positioned as of now?
I'm not forgetting of course that there are other circulation patterns that can lead to storms.
I also wonder if the present circulation pattern were to continue, temperatures in the Med. would return to near 60's, 70's levels?
 
"The professional standards of science must impose a framework of discipline and at the same time encourage rebellion against it". – Michael Polyani (1962)
"If climate science is sound and accurate, then it should be able to respond effectively to all the points raised…." - Grandad
"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts". - Bertrand Russell
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts" – Richard Feynman
"A consensus means that everyone agrees to say collectively what no one believes individually.”- Abba Eban, Israeli diplomat
Dave,Derby
polarwind
15 June 2023 19:40:36
  

Snowiest June in 91 years of record keeping on Mt. Washington with possibly more of the same on the way.
Somewhat unexpected - certainly unusual.
  
        see - https://www.accuweather.com/en/winter-weather/mount-washington-records-snowiest-june-in-91-years-of-recordkeeping/1540787



  
"The professional standards of science must impose a framework of discipline and at the same time encourage rebellion against it". – Michael Polyani (1962)
"If climate science is sound and accurate, then it should be able to respond effectively to all the points raised…." - Grandad
"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts". - Bertrand Russell
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts" – Richard Feynman
"A consensus means that everyone agrees to say collectively what no one believes individually.”- Abba Eban, Israeli diplomat
Dave,Derby
polarwind
18 June 2023 10:37:04
This from Retron on the Model output discussion -

Quote:
'The wetter weather we'll enjoy this week is all part of it, of course. At the moment we're to the north of the jet, as we have been for some weeks now. That's very unusual at this time of year (the textbooks say the jet should be between Iceland and Scotland). Note that even on the cold side of the jet, with persistent NE'lies, we're still far above average this month... and we've set several daily CET records, in fact.

The jet is now working its way north, meaning the belt of rain which has lain to our south over the past few weeks is making its way north. The models show the jet assuming its textbook position by the end of the month.
...............................


Yes, Retron is right.
And this unusual pattern or something like it and based on recent decades, has from my point of view and more often than not, been with us more than several months now (November?) and as I posted about earlier.
Thunderstorms were much more common in the 50's, 60's and 70's than recent decades.
This is a big change, but will this pattern continue and become the new norm and what might be the implications for our the weather?

 
"The professional standards of science must impose a framework of discipline and at the same time encourage rebellion against it". – Michael Polyani (1962)
"If climate science is sound and accurate, then it should be able to respond effectively to all the points raised…." - Grandad
"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts". - Bertrand Russell
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts" – Richard Feynman
"A consensus means that everyone agrees to say collectively what no one believes individually.”- Abba Eban, Israeli diplomat
Dave,Derby
polarwind
19 June 2023 07:11:03

I have heard this morning that sea temperatures around Great Britain are at a record 4deg C above normal.
That is amazing.
"The professional standards of science must impose a framework of discipline and at the same time encourage rebellion against it". – Michael Polyani (1962)
"If climate science is sound and accurate, then it should be able to respond effectively to all the points raised…." - Grandad
"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts". - Bertrand Russell
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts" – Richard Feynman
"A consensus means that everyone agrees to say collectively what no one believes individually.”- Abba Eban, Israeli diplomat
Dave,Derby
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
19 June 2023 07:17:50

I have heard this morning that sea temperatures around Great Britain are at a record 4deg C above normal.
That is amazing.

Originally Posted by: polarwind 



Today

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-12207481/Maps-reveal-extreme-marine-heatwave-developing-British-coast.html 

but the story has been around under the radar for a week (and I'd missed it too). This from the 12th

https://yorkshirebylines.co.uk/news/environment/north-atlantic-ocean-records-its-highest-ever-sea-surface-temperature/ 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
The Beast from the East
19 June 2023 07:46:25

Today

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-12207481/Maps-reveal-extreme-marine-heatwave-developing-British-coast.html 

but the story has been around under the radar for a week (and I'd missed it too). This from the 12th

https://yorkshirebylines.co.uk/news/environment/north-atlantic-ocean-records-its-highest-ever-sea-surface-temperature/ 

Originally Posted by: DEW 



What does this mean in terms of making any difference to our weather?
 
Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President
polarwind
19 June 2023 09:48:05

What does this mean in terms of making any difference to our weather?
 

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 



I would think a large area of ocean with an anomalous temperature affects/changes the usual position of high and/or low pressure systems in the region with the jetstream playing a significant part.

 
"The professional standards of science must impose a framework of discipline and at the same time encourage rebellion against it". – Michael Polyani (1962)
"If climate science is sound and accurate, then it should be able to respond effectively to all the points raised…." - Grandad
"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts". - Bertrand Russell
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts" – Richard Feynman
"A consensus means that everyone agrees to say collectively what no one believes individually.”- Abba Eban, Israeli diplomat
Dave,Derby
polarwind
19 June 2023 10:33:15

Quote: 'U.S. weather is weird, wild and extreme. Here’s why.'

See - https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2023/06/16/jet-stream-extreme-pattern-weather-tornadoes/ 

High ocean temperature anomalies presently dominate the data maps and this affects the position of high and low pressure systems. There are however, other forces acting on the synoptics and I would think nobody knows exactly how it all fits together.



 
"The professional standards of science must impose a framework of discipline and at the same time encourage rebellion against it". – Michael Polyani (1962)
"If climate science is sound and accurate, then it should be able to respond effectively to all the points raised…." - Grandad
"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts". - Bertrand Russell
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts" – Richard Feynman
"A consensus means that everyone agrees to say collectively what no one believes individually.”- Abba Eban, Israeli diplomat
Dave,Derby
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
04 July 2023 07:06:44
Recent record-breaking rainfall in Japan - and some events elsewhere from a week or so ago.

https://watchers.news/ 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
polarwind
04 July 2023 11:23:40

Recent record-breaking rainfall in Japan - and some events elsewhere from a week or so ago.

https://watchers.news/ 

Originally Posted by: DEW 



Interesting 'weather' over there presently.
Japan is of course used to floods; early summer particularly. The west side of Japan, if I remember right, regularly gets high annual rainfall totals.

Over the centuries, Japanese (and Chinese) Civil Engineering, has increasingly improved its knowledge and management to reduce events of catastrophic flooding.
see this history of progress - https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1462901114002433  


 
"The professional standards of science must impose a framework of discipline and at the same time encourage rebellion against it". – Michael Polyani (1962)
"If climate science is sound and accurate, then it should be able to respond effectively to all the points raised…." - Grandad
"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts". - Bertrand Russell
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts" – Richard Feynman
"A consensus means that everyone agrees to say collectively what no one believes individually.”- Abba Eban, Israeli diplomat
Dave,Derby
Jiries
04 July 2023 13:02:28
Death Valley heat return to business after a very cool June with few rainy days and average 4-5C below normal for June.  Reached 52C on 2nd July while Nicosia had some rain on 1st and 2nd July with maxes of 36c which also cooler than average and unusual to record rain values in 2 days row in July.  Looking staying cool to average so that unusual when UK get unsettled and cold Cyprus normally get very hot but not this time.   Numbers of 40C days in Nicosia was record 59 days in 2020, 36 in 2021 and last year 19 times while this year so far 0.
HighPressureGloom
05 July 2023 08:25:37
The Dutch and Germans getting hammered by the low in the north sea that deepened rapidly during the night.
Recent 60mph gusts in Lelystad with hail and temps at 12c. 
+1
Jiries
05 July 2023 12:27:26

The Dutch and Germans getting hammered by the low in the north sea that deepened rapidly during the night.
Recent 60mph gusts in Lelystad with hail and temps at 12c. 

Originally Posted by: HighPressureGloom 



Not long time ago German town was struck by tornado and show the car park camera when it passed though with cars moved and lot of damaged in the town.
+1
Ulric
08 July 2023 08:18:28
The rain in Spain falls mainly in Zaragoza it seems...
https://www.theguardian.com/weather/video/2023/jul/07/spain-zaragoza-floods-sweep-cars-away-torrential-rain-video-report 
 
To doubt everything or to believe everything are two equally convenient solutions; both dispense with the necessity of reflection. - Henri Poincaré
polarwind
10 July 2023 07:31:00

The rain in Spain falls mainly in Zaragoza it seems...
https://www.theguardian.com/weather/video/2023/jul/07/spain-zaragoza-floods-sweep-cars-away-torrential-rain-video-report 
 

Originally Posted by: Ulric 



Not just rain but also... Hail - a lot of it!

See -  https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-europe-66140574  

Very interesting scenes.
"The professional standards of science must impose a framework of discipline and at the same time encourage rebellion against it". – Michael Polyani (1962)
"If climate science is sound and accurate, then it should be able to respond effectively to all the points raised…." - Grandad
"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts". - Bertrand Russell
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts" – Richard Feynman
"A consensus means that everyone agrees to say collectively what no one believes individually.”- Abba Eban, Israeli diplomat
Dave,Derby
polarwind
10 July 2023 14:54:57

  Severe flooding in several areas around the world - see -

  https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-asia-india-66151375
   https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-us-canada-66150950
   https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-asia-india-61996296 
  https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/us-news/new-york-flash-flooding-kills-30427979
   https://www.albawaba.com/news/natures-fury-hits-turkey-again-1525979
   https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2023/jul/10/heavy-rains-cause-flooding-and-mudslides-in-southw/

   
  The question is whether the flooding as of the present, is representative of the normal or average distribution of world floods at this       time of the year?
  This is not an easy question to answer, given that reporting of floods around the world, as I understand it and have previously read, has for the past decade or two, been much better and thorough than in the past.
"The professional standards of science must impose a framework of discipline and at the same time encourage rebellion against it". – Michael Polyani (1962)
"If climate science is sound and accurate, then it should be able to respond effectively to all the points raised…." - Grandad
"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts". - Bertrand Russell
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts" – Richard Feynman
"A consensus means that everyone agrees to say collectively what no one believes individually.”- Abba Eban, Israeli diplomat
Dave,Derby
GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
11 July 2023 12:45:32
I missed this news last week - hottest day globally ever recorded. I believe that the data used is based on a combination of model output and actual 2M temperature data but it appears to be homogeneous so is presumably accurate for comparative purposes. 

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/07/05/world/hottest-day-world-climate-el-nino-intl/index.html 


 
Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
11 July 2023 13:03:15
And just for some balance. Snowfall in Johannesburg ...

https://www.aljazeera.com/gallery/2023/7/10/rare-snowfall-in-parts-of-south-africa 
 
Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
13 July 2023 06:11:45
Mediterranean heatwave making the mainstream news - must be serious
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66183069 
 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl

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