theweatheroutlook

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picturesareme
19 May 2023 12:33:53

Yep May has been ok. But the stand out stat is that the UK has still failed to get to 22c. The latest since 1983 i believe. 
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



We already have gone over 22C this year on the 13th of May - 22.6C recorded at Virginstow in Devon. 

https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/1658073014204784641 
 
Ally Pally Snowman
19 May 2023 12:52:41

We already have gone over 22C this year on the 13th of May - 22.6C recorded at Virginstow in Devon. 

https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/1658073014204784641 
 

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 



Ok good spot . Still no 23c though which still goes back to the 80s for late ness. 


 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Hungry Tiger
19 May 2023 13:18:55

You have to think globally on this one. The heat in Spain may have been a one-week wonder but the area of E Europe around the Caspian and into the Urals has been consistently above average. 

India and SE Asia have been having record early season temps https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Asia_heat_wave  as has NW USA and Canada. Europe is not the only continent!

Originally Posted by: DEW 



Some incredible figures on that link. Amazing.
 
Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


moomin75
19 May 2023 18:25:03
Looking like my thoughts for June may have gone South and its looking like we may be setting up for a dry spell.

We certainly need it, because everywhere around these parts is still sodden from the incredibly wet spring.

Nature's balancing act at it again, but the wet spell couldn't possibly last forever and pleasing to see that we may finally start drying out a bit.

Yep, I was wrong (again) but I called what I thought, and there's still time for it to go pear shaped again...but lots of agreement that we may finally be looking at the very least a week to 10 days of drier weather.
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
fairweather
19 May 2023 23:40:53

Yep May has been ok. But the stand out stat is that the UK has still failed to get to 22c. The latest since 1983 i believe. 
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Indeed, very cool here in the S.E. Already dropped to 8C tonight and still falling at midnight.
S.Essex, 42m ASL
+1
Tim A
20 May 2023 05:12:02
May has been slightly warmer and dryer than average here so far and it only looks to get better, so will probably go down as a good month.  
Yes there hasn't been any heat but there has been a good balance, usable days, the garden is happy and not really had to use any heating apart from briefly on the first few days. 
Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl

 My PWS 
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
20 May 2023 06:58:24
Real warmth still on hold though probably pleasant enough in Britain; as far as Europe is concerned, a step back from yesterday. The generally slightly-below-average conditions in W Europe in week 1 suffer from a northerly drift into Germany and down to the Balkans in week 2. Heat moving up from Spain doesn't quite reach Britain even later on, and the real heat as for much of the last few months remains around the Caspian. Dry for Britain for the next two weeks, this area linking to the Baltic in week 1 but to Spain in week 2. Patchy rain elsewhere, becoming heavier in C Europe in week 2.

GFS Op -  the initial SW-NE broad ridge of HP continues to dominate Britain throughout. It declines to the NE while intensifying to the SW (1035 mb W Ireland Fri 26th) with E/NE-lies for S England; it then drifts NE (Faeroes - Norway 1030mb Wed 31st) but finally to NW (1030mb Rockall Mon 5th) the last movement allowing space for weak N-lies to come down across Britain.

ECM - similar to GFS until Fri 26th but then resuming the broad SW-NE ridge though this somewhat further S and Scotland on the fringe of a deeper LP 985mb SW Iceland

GEFS - temps mostly 3-4 C above norm but with a dip to norm Wed 24th. However the op is a very cold outlier in the W from Sat 3rd, followed a day or so later by the control run. Very dry throughout, perhaps some rain in the W after Thu 1st. 

 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+1
fairweather
20 May 2023 08:25:19

Yep May has been ok. But the stand out stat is that the UK has still failed to get to 22c. The latest since 1983 i believe. 
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Indeed, very cool here in the S.E. Already dropped to 8C tonight and still falling at midnight.
S.Essex, 42m ASL
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
21 May 2023 07:27:11
Still coolish for much of W Europe in week 1 according to WX charts, but a big warm-up in week 2, just about meriting 'hot' over France and certainly so over W Russia. And Britain? Getting rather warm for England in week2, but this warmth tailing off towards N Scotland. Very dry from Britain to Baltic in week 1 with patchy rain mostly through the Med and N from the Black Sea; in week 2 the dry area shifts to Denmark and Norway, with the Med still deluged, and some rain for Britain, too.

GFS Op - HP building in from the SW and becoming centred over Britain 1035mb Fri 26th. but breaking down (well, it is a BH weekend) and by Mon 29th slack LP to the SW and HP just hanging on in the NE. The HP revives over Scandinavia (unlike yesterday when it moved NW-wards) with a S-ly bringing occasional small areas of LP from France (speculatively a promising storm or two). This pattern lasts until Mon 5th when LP is approaching N Ireland fron the west.

ECM - very much like GFS for this week although later the HP over Scandinavia is stronger, suppressing the LP on Mon 29th and  in its final frame (Wed 31st) building W-wards to Iceland, whereas GFS has LP in the N Atlantic.

GEFS - temps near seasonal norm in England, more variable up and down in Scotland, to Fri 26th; then becoming warm or very warm to Tue 6th; some chances of rain at the beginning of June esp in SW else dry.

 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+1
Rob K
21 May 2023 10:35:18
Record high SSTs across the North Atlantic and by some margin. I wonder what this will bring?

https://twitter.com/leonsimons8/status/1660227943124140033?s=46&t=t7g048d3IqjT4FCmTooqTA 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Ally Pally Snowman
21 May 2023 11:42:32

Record high SSTs across the North Atlantic and by some margin. I wonder what this will bring?

https://twitter.com/leonsimons8/status/1660227943124140033?s=46&t=t7g048d3IqjT4FCmTooqTA 

Originally Posted by: Rob K 



Isn't this the part of the world that should actually getting cooler? 
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
fairweather
21 May 2023 16:21:26

Looking like my thoughts for June may have gone South and its looking like we may be setting up for a dry spell.

We certainly need it, because everywhere around these parts is still sodden from the incredibly wet spring.

Nature's balancing act at it again, but the wet spell couldn't possibly last forever and pleasing to see that we may finally start drying out a bit.

Yep, I was wrong (again) but I called what I thought, and there's still time for it to go pear shaped again...but lots of agreement that we may finally be looking at the very least a week to 10 days of drier weather.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 


it was indeed a wet Spring but ten dry days in a row now.
S.Essex, 42m ASL
Taylor1740
21 May 2023 19:33:23
I'm worried now that we could be entering another prolonged drought and we may not see meaningful rainfall until September now.
NW Leeds - 150m amsl
+1
moomin75
22 May 2023 07:06:25

I'm worried now that we could be entering another prolonged drought and we may not see meaningful rainfall until September now.

Originally Posted by: Taylor1740 


We may have a dry spell. Dry spells don't automatically mean droughts.
We've had an incredibly wet spring.....more than enough rain to cope with a dry spell.
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
22 May 2023 07:09:33
Temp charts from WX show the advance of warmer weather into W Europe but in a more measured way than yesterday i.e. slower. In week 1 there is still a cool area from Norway down the N Sea into Germany but in week 2 continental Europe has levelled off to normal for the time of year, with the occasional extra warm patch e.g. SW France & E Russia. Any extra warmth scheduled for Britain yesterday is now restricted to the S Coast, and the rest looks no better than norm. However the rainfall pattern has also shifted with a large very dry area extending from the Atlantic into Britain for both weeks; areas of rain along the N shores of the Med (esp Spain week 2) and up into Russia.

Jet running well N of Britain over the next two weeks bar a brief dip to the S for the BH weekend.

GFS Op - HP moving up from the SW to its greatest extent on Fri 26th 1030mb just W of Ireland before retreating W-wards allowing LP to run S from Iceland 1005mb Shetland Mon 29th (BH Mon looking cool but dry for most). The HP re-establishes and moves NE 1030mb N Sea Fri 2nd finally settling N of Scotland Wed 7th with E-lies for England.

ECM - tracks the LP Mon 29th further E, through Sweden, and HP continues to cover Britain before moving NE as above.

GEFS - temps up and down (esp variable in Scotland) but not far from norm until Sun 28th after which consistently a degree or two above norm and slowly rising into June, not as warm as shown yesterday. Dry at first, some runs show small amounts of rain in first week of June but almost none in NE.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
22 May 2023 07:09:34
Temp charts from WX show the advance of warmer weather into W Europe but in a more measured way than yesterday i.e. slower. In week 1 there is still a cool area from Norway down the N Sea into Germany but in week 2 continental Europe has levelled off to normal for the time of year, with the occasional extra warm patch e.g. SW France & E Russia. Any extra warmth scheduled for Britain yesterday is now restricted to the S Coast, and the rest looks no better than norm. However the rainfall pattern has also shifted with a large very dry area extending from the Atlantic into Britain for both weeks; areas of rain along the N shores of the Med (esp Spain week 2) and up into Russia.

Jet running well N of Britain over the next two weeks bar a brief dip to the S for the BH weekend.

GFS Op - HP moving up from the SW to its greatest extent on Fri 26th 1030mb just W of Ireland before retreating W-wards allowing LP to run S from Iceland 1005mb Shetland Mon 29th (BH Mon looking cool but dry for most). The HP re-establishes and moves NE 1030mb N Sea Fri 2nd finally settling N of Scotland Wed 7th with E-lies for England.

ECM - tracks the LP Mon 29th further E, through Sweden, and HP continues to cover Britain before moving NE as above.

GEFS - temps up and down (esp variable in Scotland) but not far from norm until Sun 28th after which consistently a degree or two above norm and slowly rising into June, not as warm as shown yesterday. Dry at first, some runs show small amounts of rain in first week of June but almost none in NE.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+1
fairweather
22 May 2023 09:06:48
Indeed - even the forecast for this week has already gone askew with thick grey cloud and just 13C at 10.00am after a sunny week being forecast.
S.Essex, 42m ASL
Ally Pally Snowman
22 May 2023 09:21:57
Yep , bit of a wobble from two of the big 4 this morning with both GFS and UKMO showing a northerly for this Bank Holiday weekend.  ECM and GEM look much more promising though with high pressure very much in charge.  Interesting 12s coming up later.
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Ally Pally Snowman
22 May 2023 09:24:26
Well we finally reached 23c in the UK yesterday.  23.3c in Porthmadog.  Latest since 1985 I believe. 
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
cultman1
22 May 2023 10:34:18
The SE and London area seems to be struggling to get to the low 20s degrees due to continuing stubborn cloud cover and cool NE winds a set up which I believe will continue throughout this week and into the BH weekend ? 
Ally Pally Snowman
22 May 2023 11:07:43

The SE and London area seems to be struggling to get to the low 20s degrees due to continuing stubborn cloud cover and cool NE winds a set up which I believe will continue throughout this week and into the BH weekend ? 

Originally Posted by: cultman1 



Yep cloud cover becoming irritating now in the East. 

GFS 6z continues its theme with spoiling the Bank holiday . Cool and cloudy. 

Ecm is much better but I doubt the GFS will be that wrong at that range. 
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
22 May 2023 13:32:17

Yep cloud cover becoming irritating now in the East. 

GFS 6z continues its theme with spoiling the Bank holiday . Cool and cloudy. 

Ecm is much better but I doubt the GFS will be that wrong at that range. 
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



Last night's BBC Weather for the Week Ahead is already looking out of date. It showed a steady warming through the Bank Holiday and into the following week. The last 2 GFS Ops runs are showing the opposite with a significant cooling over the same time period. Although near the bottom of the range, they are not outliers. 

Feels like jam continues to be delayed for large parts of the UK. 
Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
Nick Gilly
22 May 2023 16:16:28
Today's Weather For The Week Ahead on the BBC is still going for a fine and warm Bank Holiday weekend with temperatures of 23-24C widespread. They are sticking to their guns. The GFS is still going for a cool northerly interlude for the same time period.

Who will be right?
mistuk
22 May 2023 17:10:51
Latest UKMO video forecast also sticking with high pressure and warm weather for the weekend
Ally Pally Snowman
22 May 2023 17:16:48

Today's Weather For The Week Ahead on the BBC is still going for a fine and warm Bank Holiday weekend with temperatures of 23-24C widespread. They are sticking to their guns. The GFS is still going for a cool northerly interlude for the same time period.


Who will be right?

Originally Posted by: Nick Gilly 



It's going to be very interesting to see how it plays out some sort of northerly drift looks likely now but how potent and how chilly is unknown.  
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.

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