theweatheroutlook

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Brian Gaze
07 March 2023 18:15:22
UKV 15z looks interesting for my patch tomorrow.

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Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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Ally Pally Snowman
07 March 2023 18:22:29
ECM also has 10cm to 20cm widely by Friday morning. 

https://content-eu.invisioncic.com/d321955/monthly_2023_03/1.jpg.f1307176511706e75d87df5d8a46177e.jpg 
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Brian Gaze
07 March 2023 18:30:35
After looking at UKV in more detail I would be a little circumspect about tomorrow's event. Apart from over high ground there isn't much snow at all.

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https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ukv.aspx?run=15&charthour=29&chartname=snow_depth&chartregion=uk-region&charttag=Snow%20depth 



 
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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doctormog
07 March 2023 18:34:13

After looking at UKV in more detail I would be a little circumspect about tomorrow's event. Apart from over high ground there isn't much snow at all.

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https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ukv.aspx?run=15&charthour=29&chartname=snow_depth&chartregion=uk-region&charttag=Snow%20depth 



 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 



Is that new snow depth or is that model suggesting all the snow here will have melted by tomorrow evening?

Edit: Actually acording to the UKV data there is no snow here at the moment.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Matty H
07 March 2023 18:39:27
I’m in Lancashire from tomorrow afternoon until Friday morning. It was looking horrific over the last couple of days, but this evenings runs have watered things down somewhat for there, thankfully. 
Yate, Nr Bristol
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fullybhoy
07 March 2023 18:40:47
Scottish news and weather really ramping up Thursday/Friday here, but looking at the models it looks like its went the usual way 👎🏻
Aldo
Glasgow 165m/asl
 
Downpour
07 March 2023 18:41:41

After looking at UKV in more detail I would be a little circumspect about tomorrow's event. Apart from over high ground there isn't much snow at all.

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https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ukv.aspx?run=15&charthour=29&chartname=snow_depth&chartregion=uk-region&charttag=Snow%20depth 



 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 



Indeed so, Brian. I think it would be foolish to get too excited. It simply doesn't feel cold enough here at low levels in the SE. Perhaps places with significant elevation might see some decent snowfall however. 
Chingford
London E4
147ft
Brian Gaze
07 March 2023 18:44:57

Is that new snow depth or is that model suggesting all the snow here will have melted by tomorrow evening?

Edit: Actually acording to the UKV data there is no snow here at the moment.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 



It's the depth of the snow lying on the surface 
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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White Meadows
07 March 2023 18:45:13
Moderate rain showers looking likely south of the M4. Any sleety wet stuff only to fall here after dark tonight maybe tomorrow night. Then it’s back to business as usual for March standards. 

Meanwhile, Met office has about 8 hours constant hail for large areas of the south according to the weather maps. 
Chunky Pea
07 March 2023 18:48:31

After looking at UKV in more detail I would be a little circumspect about tomorrow's event. Apart from over high ground there isn't much snow at all.

UserPostedImage

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ukv.aspx?run=15&charthour=29&chartname=snow_depth&chartregion=uk-region&charttag=Snow%20depth 



 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


The northern third of Ireland could be the place to be late Weds into Thurs (if driving wet snow is what one is looking for) At least according to the latest GFS. Looks downright miserable to be honest. 
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Ally Pally Snowman
07 March 2023 18:50:42
The UKV model was crap for the December snow here massively underestimated it. 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
doctormog
07 March 2023 18:54:18

It's the depth of the snow lying on the surface 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 



Thanks. I’d be wary of its credibility as its starting data is actually completely wrong for here. 

The ECM  model does seem to suggesting more widespread lying snow however it does often have a tendency to overdo things. Having said that it has underestimated the starting snow depth here too.

Here’s the picture at 48hr https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/united-kingdom/snow-depth/20230309-1200z.html 

By day 6 it shows quite a bit of the white stuff up here. We’ll see. https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/united-kingdom/snow-depth/20230313-1200z.html  
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
dagspot
07 March 2023 19:01:12
model animation on BBC Scotland just seemed to skirt Dumfries and east coast/borders before spiralling away… on this occasion didn't seem to reach central belt ‘subject to change’
Neilston 600ft ASL
Chunky Pea
07 March 2023 19:06:54



The ECM  model does seem to suggesting more widespread lying snow however it has a tendency to overdo things. Having said that it has underestimated the starting snow depth here too.
  

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


I've noticed this for a number of years now regarding the ECM. They way I tend to read snow depth charts these days is just to see them as showing the regions which has the greatest chance of seeing snow falling with depth being an insignificant secondary thought 
The ECM is best, I think, at predicting rain amounts and the locations it will fall in. Like snow amounts though, I also find that it overdoes windspeeds as well during major events. The GFS and the UKMO, more often than not, triumph over the ECM in these regards I think 
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Gandalf The White
07 March 2023 19:14:56

Thanks. I’d be wary of its credibility as its starting data is actually completely wrong for here. 

The ECM  model does seem to suggesting more widespread lying snow however it does often have a tendency to overdo things. Having said that it has underestimated the starting snow depth here too.

Here’s the picture at 48hr https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/united-kingdom/snow-depth/20230309-1200z.html 

By day 6 it shows quite a bit of the white stuff up here. We’ll see. https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/united-kingdom/snow-depth/20230313-1200z.html  

Originally Posted by: doctormog 



Yes, I’m cautious with ECM snow depths.  

I’ve been through all the high res models and the consensus is for periods of sleet and snow here in the morning and again later and overnight into the early hours of Thursday.  The snow depths, where available, offer anywhere between a dusting and 5cm or more.

 
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Chunky Pea
07 March 2023 20:14:51
'Snow line' forecast up until Thurs morning. Favourable for snow throughout. 

UserPostedImage

 
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
The Beast from the East
07 March 2023 20:21:26
Very mild ECM with that trough sitting in the atlantic unable to move across 
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fairweather
07 March 2023 21:01:25
It's the UK, it's snow - we know by now that you can only wait and see what happens. Whatever happens it looks unlikely to be around for many by the weekend. I hope those that didn't get to see any in December get to at least watch some falling in the next couple of days.
S.Essex, 42m ASL
Brian Gaze
07 March 2023 21:35:20
MOGREPS has increased the risk of snow in the south tomorrow morning, but the "big event" in the afternoon and evening seems to have shifted to Midlands.  


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Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
dagspot
07 March 2023 22:01:25
I don't get the BBC forecast… the moving front graphics bear less resemblance to the huge swathe of yellow warning zone?  Some areas of Scotland on Friday look dry cool and sunny…?
Neilston 600ft ASL
fullybhoy
07 March 2023 22:06:40

I don't get the BBC forecast… the moving front graphics bear less resemblance to the huge swathe of yellow warning zone?  Some areas of Scotland on Friday look dry cool and sunny…?

Originally Posted by: dagspot 



Its all looking like its staying to the south and not even getting as far as northern England, yellow warning probably remains “just incase “ Its games a bogey for snow here now i think, first time in my life i can remember we have had absolutely no snow here 👎🏻
Aldo
Glasgow 165m/asl
 
Quantum
07 March 2023 22:08:05
GFS18Z is quite incredible for Yorkshire

Firstly the probability of snow tommorow when it was never forecast through either a humber streamer or the front itself has gone up.

Secondly we are holding steady on the main event Thursday/Friday

And now we have another snow event on Saturday/Sunday!!!
 
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Quantum
07 March 2023 22:30:03

Seriously? https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK18_180_48.png 

Originally Posted by: doctormog 



It does feel like we are on the brink of something truly historic.
 
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Quantum
07 March 2023 22:45:27
ARPEGE18Z also refusing to entertain the idea of bringing in milder conditions by the weekend.
 
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.

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