theweatheroutlook

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DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
05 September 2023 18:37:45
And now it's the turn of Greece under Storm Daniel
https://news.sky.com/story/greece-at-least-one-dead-as-cars-washed-away-during-storm-daniel-with-7-000-lightning-bolts-recorded-12955426 
😲Rainfall totals for today and tomorrow 60-70cm

and for an even more dramatic take
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12482499/Shocking-moment-car-washed-sea-torrential-rain-hits-Greece-sparking-killer-floods-people-ordered-streets.html  with the headline Desperate Brits beg for help after being left stranded on storm-lashed Greek holiday island 

Some wild flood photos from a few days back in Austria
https://news.sky.com/story/austria-flooding-river-levels-reach-100-year-high-amid-storms-12950819 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
06 September 2023 07:32:02
A more meteorological take on storm Daniel. The diagram of the omega-block is interesting.
https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2023/09/fire-to-flood-greeces-destructive-roller-coaster-ride/ 
 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
06 September 2023 07:41:47

So much cooler in France/Italy since yesterday.  Florence  19c and cloudy now compared to 37c plus for the last two weeks and 41c on Thursday .  Snowing at Val Thorens in the Alps today with a covering. 

Originally Posted by: Tim A 



Reminds me of when I spent September 1996 travelling and camping around Italy on trains. We arrived overnight into Florence where it had been 37C the previous day. It then proceeded to rain pretty much the entire month, everywhere including the South and Sicily. The only settled weather we had was in Venice right at the end of the month, with days of 17C. 
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
08 September 2023 07:39:33
Hong Kong and southern China battle widespread flooding from record rains
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-66748239 
Weather authorities issued a "black" rainstorm signal on Thursday night, a warning triggered by rainfall exceeding 70mm an hour. The Hong Kong Observatory later reported an hourly rainfall of 158.1 millimetres, the highest since records began in 1884.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
speckledjim
08 September 2023 07:44:36

A more meteorological take on storm Daniel. The diagram of the omega-block is interesting.
https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2023/09/fire-to-flood-greeces-destructive-roller-coaster-ride/ 
 

Originally Posted by: DEW 


754mm fell in 24 hours which is a record for Greece and an incredible amount of rain - more than I get in a year.
Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip
Saint Snow
08 September 2023 08:59:50
An awful lot of 'record breaking' rainfalls around the world this year.

We know that global warming increases the amount of water that can be carried in the atmosphere, and heavier rainstorms have long been forecast to be a symptom of climate change.

Coupled with the amazing bouts of heat that many places have also encountered, is this the year that the impacts of climate change take a big step up?

 

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
lanky
08 September 2023 09:40:25

An awful lot of 'record breaking' rainfalls around the world this year.

We know that global warming increases the amount of water that can be carried in the atmosphere, and heavier rainstorms have long been forecast to be a symptom of climate change.

Coupled with the amazing bouts of heat that many places have also encountered, is this the year that the impacts of climate change take a big step up?

 

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 



I think it might be

Looking at the Global SST's for this year and the extreme +ve anomalies I think we may be experiencing some sort of step change and these crazy SST anomalies are being reflected in far more extreme rainfall events all over the globe

No concrete evidence of causation afaik but definitely a correlation

https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/ 
Martin
Richmond, Surrey
Charmhills
08 September 2023 10:12:04

An awful lot of 'record breaking' rainfalls around the world this year.

We know that global warming increases the amount of water that can be carried in the atmosphere, and heavier rainstorms have long been forecast to be a symptom of climate change.

Coupled with the amazing bouts of heat that many places have also encountered, is this the year that the impacts of climate change take a big step up?

 

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 



 El Niño also adds more forcing into the atmosphere meaning more energy hence higher rainfall.

Could effect us this late Autumn and into winter in terms of rainfall??
Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
Saint Snow
08 September 2023 10:13:44

El Niño also adds more forcing into the atmosphere meaning more energy hence higher rainfall.

Could effect us this late Autumn and into winter in terms of rainfall??

Originally Posted by: Charmhills 




It does and it could.

👍

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Chunky Pea
08 September 2023 11:00:57

El Niño also adds more forcing into the atmosphere meaning more energy hence higher rainfall.

Could effect us this late Autumn and into winter in terms of rainfall??

Originally Posted by: Charmhills 


If anything, el Nino adds a small jolt to the north Atlantic jet stream during late autumn and winter, though I do stress small. It is a curious coincidence though that slower moving patterns, bringing more longer lasting high pressure zones etc over the greater north Atlantic region have been dominant since the la Nina came into play, and this current stagnant high could be a lagged legacy of that 
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
10 September 2023 10:50:56

754mm fell in 24 hours which is a record for Greece and an incredible amount of rain - more than I get in a year.

Originally Posted by: speckledjim 


The data is now official: 3 years’ worth of rain fell within two days. Scientists on Greek TV discussing the possibility of the formation of new, permanent lakes in the area. It is a new planet

https://watchers.news/2023/09/09/unprecedented-rainfall-causes-catastrophic-flooding-in-greece-leaving-massive-damage-and-at-least-10-dead/ 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Windy Willow
10 September 2023 13:39:05
In Southern France, almost three weeks back now, they had a few 40c days and our friends shared that experience with us, as their property has a lot of trees, they mentioned that you could smell the leaves cooking in the heat of the sun which left a rather pungent odour on the air. it was also very evident when we first arrived on the 31st August as most of the nut trees have dried, crispy leaves which they are now shedding and the fruit trees and most noticeably their cherry, were all wilting and leaves curled. There was overnight rain on the 2nd September which seemed to briefly refresh most of the trees and plants but by the time we were leaving yesterday they were all looking a bit sad as it's been hot and dry all week again. Hopefully it will rain there on Tuesday.
One other note is that this year there has been bumper nut harvests from their hazelnuts and walnuts and all their fruit trees too. But a noticeable lack of so many wasps, in comparison to the last five years, they had a longer and colder winter earlier and a good amount of snow which may (or not) have been a contributing factor.
South Holland, Lincs 5m/16ft ASL

Don't feed the Trolls!! When starved of attention they return to their dark caves or the dark recesses of bridges and will turn back to stone, silent again!
+1
NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
10 September 2023 15:19:12

The data is now official: 3 years’ worth of rain fell within two days. Scientists on Greek TV discussing the possibility of the formation of new, permanent lakes in the area. It is a new planet

https://watchers.news/2023/09/09/unprecedented-rainfall-causes-catastrophic-flooding-in-greece-leaving-massive-damage-and-at-least-10-dead/ 

Originally Posted by: DEW 



Interesting David. Would the Tonga volcano that put huge amounts of water into the atmosphere/stratosphere have had any impact on the widespread large rainfall events we've seen globally this year? From a layman's angle what goes up has to come down.
https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/13/6/912 
 
Vale of the Great Dairies
South Dorset
Elevation 60m 197ft
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
12 September 2023 06:14:10
Storm Daniel has crossed the Med and is producing major flooding in Libya, with a high death toll because of the collapse of two dams. Egypt is next forecast to be hit.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-66773814 
 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
polarwind
16 September 2023 19:01:27
 Flooding -

 Not only but also -  see -
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-66725124    
 
 And so these events continue!




 

 
 
 
  
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Dave,Derby
Chunky Pea
19 September 2023 06:40:48
El Nino officiallly declared by BOM last night.
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Gandalf The White
19 September 2023 06:56:21

Interesting David. Would the Tonga volcano that put huge amounts of water into the atmosphere/stratosphere have had any impact on the widespread large rainfall events we've seen globally this year? From a layman's angle what goes up has to come down.
https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/13/6/912 
 

Originally Posted by: NMA 



That’s an interesting paper. If I’m reading it correctly then a lot of the water was pushed up into the stratosphere and is above where our weather systems form?  The water that did get added to the troposphere would surely have been lost by now?
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
19 September 2023 11:11:03

That’s an interesting paper. If I’m reading it correctly then a lot of the water was pushed up into the stratosphere and is above where our weather systems form?  The water that did get added to the troposphere would surely have been lost by now?

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


That's the thing Peter. Is water ever lost unless it goes into space but I don't know if it does or even can in this case? I have little idea where the water is now. From a logical angle you might expect it/some to have fallen back to the surface by now. A hypothesis might be that the huge volume of water in the atmosphere from that eruption contributed to some of the massive rainstorms in the past few months around the globe. I think the paper sort of implies that. 
Nick
Vale of the Great Dairies
South Dorset
Elevation 60m 197ft
lanky
19 September 2023 13:11:07

That’s an interesting paper. If I’m reading it correctly then a lot of the water was pushed up into the stratosphere and is above where our weather systems form?  The water that did get added to the troposphere would surely have been lost by now?

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 



The Tonga Volcano article reports up to 146*10^12 (Teragrams) of water being ejected into the Stratosphere

The Greek floods the other day show (by my reckoning on the maps published) an average of 200mm of rain falling over an area of about 100km x 100km with some areas inside this square totalling about 700mm but mostly in the range 100-200mm

Using my trusty fag packet the Tonga volcano ejection comes to 0.146Gt (10^9 tons) of water whilst just the Greek flood total on its own comes to around 2 Gt rain

My conclusion is on that basis the Tonga Volcano was not much if any of a contribution to the recent floods

 
Martin
Richmond, Surrey
+3
ozone_aurora
19 September 2023 14:02:17

El Nino officiallly declared by BOM last night.

Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 


What is BOM?🤫
Retron
19 September 2023 14:09:28

What is BOM?🤫

Originally Posted by: ozone_aurora 


The Australian Bureau of Meteorology?
Leysdown, north Kent
+1
Jiries
19 September 2023 17:05:15

That's the thing Peter. Is water ever lost unless it goes into space but I don't know if it does or even can in this case? I have little idea where the water is now. From a logical angle you might expect it/some to have fallen back to the surface by now. A hypothesis might be that the huge volume of water in the atmosphere from that eruption contributed to some of the massive rainstorms in the past few months around the globe. I think the paper sort of implies that. 
Nick

Originally Posted by: NMA 



Like it happened in NZ, Libya, Death Valley, Greece with Cyprus avoided it but got frequent storms here and there.  Is also any water in the atmosphere would had been frozen and then fall back as ice pellets?
picturesareme
20 September 2023 12:27:54
The excess water injected into the stratosphere will increase warming, and not how much rain falls from an event on the other side of the world. 

I read the warming from event will primarily be local to the Pacific - I assume that this would just increase the chance & intensity of El nino. 
picturesareme
20 September 2023 16:45:45
https://www.instagram.com/p/CxaHP3iAUjt/?igshid=NzZhOTFlYzFmZQ== 


Unusual deep early snow yesterday in Lapland 
Gavin D
27 September 2023 15:50:09
Perth, Western Australia, has had its hottest September day on record with a high of 34.3c beating the previous record of 34.2 in 2014
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