theweatheroutlook

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UncleAlbert
22 November 2023 14:22:22

I’ve frequently seen the opposite observation on here - that patterns last longer and we get “stuck in a rut” for longer periods. That seems more true from my casual observation,  that I have no idea if it is. 

Originally Posted by: Rob K 



But 'a rut' is often a repeating pattern rather than something static.  Even from my schooldays I understood anticyclones to be slow moving features but these days Highs often seem to transfer across the charts as fast as mobile Lows!  One effect of this is that we don't have the 2 to 3 day foggy spells that we used to get.  So on balance think I have to side with Rob K on this one.
Saint Snow
22 November 2023 14:30:49

Just a brief post from me (the new, more sedate and considered Moomin compared to previous years).

My thoughts? Well, beggars can't be choosers in my view. We seem to be approaching a drying and cooling period, with some seasonable conditions looking likely. 
Be that a wintry Nirvana or just some dry, calm and cold early winter conditions is anyone's guess, but at least a temporary end to the Atlantic onslaught looks most likely, and as far as I'm concerned, that'll do just fine for early December.
Whatever the winter brings will be for future threads, of course, but I get a sneaky feeling we may have some periods of interest this coming winter, and that will also do just fine!
 

Originally Posted by: moomin75 




This time of year, a northerly flow will bring colder air than a 'Scandi'.

All the Decembers with a notable cold/snowy spell in my lifetime that spring to mind (81, 09, 10, 22) had a strong Greenland High as the driver.



 

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
moomin75
22 November 2023 15:36:33
ICON 12Z is rather nice I must say.
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
White Meadows
22 November 2023 16:12:19
Jet heading way south on gfs 12z.
Could be a real eye candy run (sypnotically speaking). 
Saint Snow
22 November 2023 16:45:23

Jet heading way south on gfs 12z.
Could be a real eye candy run (sypnotically speaking). 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 




Looking decent.

I'm now starting to worry that it's a case of shooting one's bolt too soon!

A Dec 2010 repeat would be unbelievably fantastic, but that was so unusual to last over four full weeks of cold (I know further south there were breaks) that I don't expect to ever witness it again.

A fortnight of cold with a bit of snow around, taking in the first week of December, would be heartbreaking if it reverted to average mild shite by mid-December.

I'd merrily sacrifice cold and snow up to the 18th, if it was followed by a fortnight of cold and thick snow in the immediate run-up to and over Xmas.

 

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
jhall
22 November 2023 16:45:45

This time of year, a northerly flow will bring colder air than a 'Scandi'.

All the Decembers with a notable cold/snowy spell in my lifetime that spring to mind (81, 09, 10, 22) had a strong Greenland High as the driver.

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


Which is surprising, as it's the reverse of what one might expect, at least for southern England, given that at this time of year the Continent cools down much faster than the sea surrounding the UK, so that a short sea track ought to be a good thing. Perhaps it's simply that prolonged Easterly spells are very rare in December, becoming more common later in the winter.
Cranleigh, Surrey
moomin75
22 November 2023 16:48:31
Well, the last time we had a really cold and snow December, was in 2010.
In 2010, I spent December in Australia. 

Next week, I fly out to Australia for the month of December, so I reckon a cold and snowy December is nailed on! 😅😅😅
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
+2
jhall
22 November 2023 16:49:11

Jet heading way south on gfs 12z.
Could be a real eye candy run (sypnotically speaking). 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 



Heavy snow in northern France and the Low Countries in the op run around T+240. Unfortunately almost all of it stays just the other side of the Channel.
Cranleigh, Surrey
Retron
22 November 2023 17:12:17
We're at the stage now where the models - all of them! - are churning out "eye candy" synoptics. Plenty of time for that to change, but I have to say it's lovely to look at. And the fun thing is it looks for all the world like the sort of thing you'd get after a major SSW - but of course, we've not had one, nor are we likely to for several weeks at least:

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-zonal-mean-zonal-wind?area=nh&base_time=202311210000 

 
Leysdown, north Kent
Ally Pally Snowman
22 November 2023 17:12:46
Some of the synoptics being thrown out atm are truly stunning.  Shame its not just 2c or 3c colder. The continent cools rapidly at this time of year so if we can keep this output to mid December could be jackpot time.
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Saint Snow
22 November 2023 17:20:34

Well, the last time we had a really cold and snow December, was in 2010.
In 2010, I spent December in Australia. 

Next week, I fly out to Australia for the month of December, so I reckon a cold and snowy December is nailed on! 😅😅😅

Originally Posted by: moomin75 




👍

Very generous sacrifice, Mooms!  😁

(hope you have a great trip regardless, matey)

 

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Bertwhistle
22 November 2023 17:38:57

Looking decent.

I'm now starting to worry that it's a case of shooting one's bolt too soon!

A Dec 2010 repeat would be unbelievably fantastic, but that was so unusual to last over four full weeks of cold (I know further south there were breaks) that I don't expect to ever witness it again.

A fortnight of cold with a bit of snow around, taking in the first week of December, would be heartbreaking if it reverted to average mild shite by mid-December.

I'd merrily sacrifice cold and snow up to the 18th, if it was followed by a fortnight of cold and thick snow in the immediate run-up to and over Xmas.

 

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 



Dickensian romantic.

Me too.

Every year since 1981. Then I thought I'd died in 2010.
Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.
+1
David M Porter
22 November 2023 17:44:40

Looking decent.

I'm now starting to worry that it's a case of shooting one's bolt too soon!

A Dec 2010 repeat would be unbelievably fantastic, but that was so unusual to last over four full weeks of cold (I know further south there were breaks) that I don't expect to ever witness it again.

A fortnight of cold with a bit of snow around, taking in the first week of December, would be heartbreaking if it reverted to average mild shite by mid-December.

I'd merrily sacrifice cold and snow up to the 18th, if it was followed by a fortnight of cold and thick snow in the immediate run-up to and over Xmas.

 

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 



On the point in bold, IIRC prior to the Dec 2009/Jan 2010 freeze there were many people on this forum who seriously doubted that we'd ever see month-long major freezes in this country ever again after 20 years of mostly mild/very mild winters. One never knows!

The models look great at the moment, but it's feet firmly on the ground time as we've been let down so many times in the past. Let's hope this isn't one of those times.
Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
+1
Saint Snow
22 November 2023 17:53:02

Dickensian romantic.

Me too.

Every year since 1981. Then I thought I'd died in 2010.

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 



'la petit mort'? 😁

I think this was a common scene for TWO enthusiasts that month!

UserPostedImage

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
22 November 2023 18:08:44

'la petit mort'? 😁

I think this was a common scene for TWO enthusiasts that month!

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 



Some of us on the South Coast came back to life after three days (sound familiar?) when it all melted overnight - and then had to suffer the exquisite torture of those in the north boring on about how marvellous it all was :(
 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+3
Rob K
22 November 2023 18:17:49
UKMO on board with an easterly. Maybe the mid-range forecast, which currently says "only a very small chance of something much colder and wintry developing" will look a bit different in a day or two?
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
jhall
22 November 2023 18:20:07

Some of us on the South Coast came back to life after three days (sound familiar?) when it all melted overnight - and then had to suffer the exquisite torture of those in the north boring on about how marvellous it all was
 

Originally Posted by: DEW 


To add salt to the wound, you wouldn't even have had to go very far north. Where I live, just north of the Sussex/Surrey border, the month was pretty fantastic.
Cranleigh, Surrey
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
22 November 2023 18:44:48

To add salt to the wound, you wouldn't even have had to go very far north. Where I live, just north of the Sussex/Surrey border, the month was pretty fantastic.

Originally Posted by: jhall 



Two images from 2/12/2010
UserPostedImage

UserPostedImage

and one from 7/12/2010, just five days later (yes, the rime is nice, which is why I took the pic, but it's not the same - look at the green grass around and in the background, and this was on the highest point of the Downs locally)

UserPostedImage
 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
White Meadows
22 November 2023 18:45:41

UKMO on board with an easterly. Maybe the mid-range forecast, which currently says "only a very small chance of something much colder and wintry developing" will look a bit different in a day or two?

Originally Posted by: Rob K 



You’d like to think they back their own model at least. Perhaps they they’re covering all bases which is sensible, but also probably expect a major climb down over the coming day or 2?
either way, only yesterday they were ruling out all possibilities for anything remotely cold and meaningful. So it is indeed an ‘upgrade’ to the narrative. 


 
White Meadows
22 November 2023 18:50:56
ECM doesn’t really know what to make of the atmospheric changes afoot, plays with the Atlantic ridge idea then decides to go all Boxing Day 1962 on us
(not 61!) 
 
Rob K
22 November 2023 19:00:04
No quick route back to mildness on the ECM... synoptics look a bit unlikely though.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
squish
22 November 2023 19:15:06
I would say just enjoy the great charts ( ecm +240 in particular) 
they will chop and change of course but we are looking at a couple of weeks of cold weather with the potential of something much colder and snowier coming in from the east .

it might be disappointingly cold grey damp and breezy across the south for much of next week but within all this there are the ingredients for the first really notable cold spell for quite some time 
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
Saint Snow
22 November 2023 19:42:10

Two images from 2/12/2010
UserPostedImage

UserPostedImage

and one from 7/12/2010, just five days later (yes, the rime is nice, which is why I took the pic, but it's not the same - look at the green grass around and in the background, and this was on the highest point of the Downs locally)

UserPostedImage
 

Originally Posted by: DEW 




I can look back with fondness now but, for most of the spell, we were none dry here. We did have some impressive rime (I think Kev Bradshaw has some great pics from not far from me), and on the coldest nights the freezing fog gave a 'diamond dust' effect, but every time the models showed a front or feature to bring snow here, it'd get to 24 hours away then about-turn. I'd experienced a magic afternoon in York on the last Sunday of the November, when unexpectedly heavy - and very localised - snow had put down about 6" in the space of 4 hours, but nothing here.
That changed on the evening of Friday 17th December. We were forecast light snow showers moving in from the west from around 6pm. I was hoping for a cm, maybe even 2. Both ground and air was so cold that anything falling would stick. Driving westwards home from work, I was about 10iles east of home when I saw the first flake. Within a few miles, the snow got heavy. By the time I was home, there was a good cm or two lying. I was happy. 
But it didn't stop, not for a good 3-4 hours. Proper heavy snow, barely a hint of wind. When it was done, 16cm level snow lay deep & crisp & even. The northern outskirts of town where my parents live got around 20cm. On Xmas Eve we went to a country pub for food, about 15 miles north of my house. The snow on their outside tables always a good 25cm, even after inevitable compaction.
Got to Boxing Day before the first hint of a thaw.
A Day or two after the snowfall, Crosby weather station, located literally yards from the beach, bottomed out at -17c, which was remarkable.
That month is a lifetime memory I'll always cherish.

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
22 November 2023 20:45:29

Some of us on the South Coast came back to life after three days (sound familiar?) when it all melted overnight - and then had to suffer the exquisite torture of those in the north boring on about how marvellous it all was
 

Originally Posted by: DEW 

And those in my neck of the woods complaining about being snowed in for days.  Actually, I was the only one because it just seemed to dump it all in a five mile wide strip from the Humber streamer.  It honestly was too much here and I wish we could have shared it out a bit!  We still had remnants of dirty grey ice piles in car parks up to Easter.  I love snow but I’m careful what I wish for since 2010. 
Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
four
  • four
  • Advanced Member
22 November 2023 20:53:02
2010 was no fun here with over 2 feet of powder lying for weeks and temperatures well below -10
The only blessing was not much wind so no major drifting on lower ground but there were still odd days with total whiteout periods.
A very misused term - in a real white out falling and blowing snow become as one, something more like swirling mist - only visibility is a few feet not yards. 
North York Moors weather 
+1

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