theweatheroutlook

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TheJudge
23 November 2023 07:07:41
With the first prospect of a cold spell looking more likely from the weekend (25th November 2023), we all know how much we can be let down by the models 😉 

Furthermore, how 4 miles down the road can get a dumping of snow and you end up with cold rain or sleet that never quite makes it 😡 

This thread also helps keep the model outlook thread free for people to chat about model watching with an option to moan here. Nothing more to add at the moment, but I am sure there will plenty of posts come mid March 2024 😜
ARTzeman
24 November 2023 11:44:33
No lamppost watching due for me. Might be lucky in early December.




Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Saint Snow
27 November 2023 09:38:18
We really do have the most frustrating climate, especially in winter.

We know that, with the right synoptics, we can get great and prolonged winter spells, including in December. And so often we get teased into believing, then the malevolent weather gods snatch our hopes away.

 

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Bolty
27 November 2023 15:08:01
It's just looking like a very bog-standard early winter cold snap, as far as I'm concerned. Nothing remotely like last December (yet, anyway), but also quite respectable for the toddler days of winter.

No sign of much snow around here, yet though, but I'm not too bothered about that really.
Scott
Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.
My weather station 
richardabdn
27 November 2023 18:21:51
Back from holiday to the exact same revolting, soul-destroying cold wet crap that I was forced to endure for what seemed like an eternity before I left and continued unabated while I was away 🤢

It's pretty much guaranteed the weather will be awful at this time of year but this year, like so many recently, is so bad it defies categorisation.

When the hell are we going to start getting weather coming from the west, like it's supposed to do, instead of from the vile North Sea day after rotten stinking day?

Temperature failed to exceed 12.2C between 14th October and 21st November which is a pathetically low absolute maximum without precedent for that period since at least 1961, even in the coldest years, yet at the same time there have been a total of five slight frosts none lower than -0.6C. No other period in history as been as consistently lacking in extremes at both ends of the spectrum.

It's also rained almost every single day with another ludicrous monthly total of 112mm making for a total of 298mm since the start of October and the 7th wettest October/November combination on record. Three of the wetter years were 1940, 1984 and 1997 which were entirely down to phenomenally wet Novembers. Only 1895, 1941, 1960 and 2002 would have been as consistently wet throughout both months though last year was almost as bad, and possibly worse if excluding the first half of October. It's just unreal 🤮

Yet again a breathtakingly hideous combination of uninteresting, unvaried, unpleasant and unusable day-after-repulsive-day and nothing to think that winter - the worst season of the year will be any different. Sooner it's over the better.
 
Aberdeen: The only place that misses out on everything


2023 - The Year that's Constantly Worse than a Bad November
2024 - 2023 without the Good Bits
johncs2016
27 November 2023 22:56:31

Back from holiday to the exact same revolting, soul-destroying cold wet crap that I was forced to endure for what seemed like an eternity before I left and continued unabated while I was away 🤢

It's pretty much guaranteed the weather will be awful at this time of year but this year, like so many recently, is so bad it defies categorisation.

When the hell are we going to start getting weather coming from the west, like it's supposed to do, instead of from the vile North Sea day after rotten stinking day?

Temperature failed to exceed 12.2C between 14th October and 21st November which is a pathetically low absolute maximum without precedent for that period since at least 1961, even in the coldest years, yet at the same time there have been a total of five slight frosts none lower than -0.6C. No other period in history as been as consistently lacking in extremes at both ends of the spectrum.

It's also rained almost every single day with another ludicrous monthly total of 112mm making for a total of 298mm since the start of October and the 7th wettest October/November combination on record. Three of the wetter years were 1940, 1984 and 1997 which were entirely down to phenomenally wet Novembers. Only 1895, 1941, 1960 and 2002 would have been as consistently wet throughout both months though last year was almost as bad, and possibly worse if excluding the first half of October. It's just unreal 🤮

Yet again a breathtakingly hideous combination of uninteresting, unvaried, unpleasant and unusable day-after-repulsive-day and nothing to think that winter - the worst season of the year will be any different. Sooner it's over the better.
 

Originally Posted by: richardabdn 



For most of the time, I would tend to agree with that but that is normally more likely to be the case during the summer, rather than during the winter months.

At this time of the year though, everything is a bit different. Winds from off the North Sea usually originate from the near continent which at this time of the year, is getting colder all the time. This means that if we can keep those winds coming in from off the North Sea for long enough, there is always the chance that over time, this air could eventually become cold enough to deliver some snow to these parts, especially if the origins of those easterlies are from a more Arctic source, rather than from the Mediteranean Sea.

Westerlies on the other hand, come in from off the Atlantic Ocean, and are usually relatively mild at this time of the year. We can get weather associated with westerlies which is cold enough to bring snow showers to these parts during the winter, but this only ever happens very briefly in showery air masses behind each weather system which moves through (these weather systems will then usually always bring a return to milder weather).

That is usually our most common weather pattern but if we were to go back to that, we would therefore just end up going back to our usual mild crud as a result, and I don't exactly believe that you would want that to happen either, somehow.
 
The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
tallyho_83
28 November 2023 00:15:53
How frustrating! 😦

Well that LP system coming off the Atlantic on Wed night into Thursday looks like taking a much more southerly track now with all southern area's missing out on any weather although does mean we are in the colder air but that's no fun without snow! Thank goodness it's still Autumn. 

But oh so frustrating - the snow goes to France, Belgium and Germany, Denmark, Netherlands, Switzerland. Poland etc.

Also a friend of mine took the train from Berlin to Stockholm today and said that there was light snow throughout the whole trip - even from Hamburg, Copenhagen, Malmo and now Stockholm where it was -7c with light powdery fairy tale like snow but only dandruff there but more is forecast. Friend is from Ukraine and reminded her of home!

I guess on the plus side it;s nice to see Europe get more snow which sets the UK up nicely because any easterly we do get from a Scandinavian high that does build will bring in some bitterly cold air given how cold eastern Europe and Scandinavia has been and will continue to be as well as the fact by tomorrow over 50% of Europe will be snow covered looking at latest radar/satellite.

Previous winters - N. Eastern Europe Scandinavia hasn't seen a lot of snow including baltic states - so my point is that cold air is just over the North sea and it's not even December.  



 
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
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johncs2016
28 November 2023 09:12:29

How frustrating! 😦

Well that LP system coming off the Atlantic on Wed night into Thursday looks like taking a much more southerly track now with all southern area's missing out on any weather although does mean we are in the colder air but that's no fun without snow! Thank goodness it's still Autumn. 

But oh so frustrating - the snow goes to France, Belgium and Germany, Denmark, Netherlands, Switzerland. Poland etc.

Also a friend of mine took the train from Berlin to Stockholm today and said that there was light snow throughout the whole trip - even from Hamburg, Copenhagen, Malmo and now Stockholm where it was -7c with light powdery fairy tale like snow but only dandruff there but more is forecast. Friend is from Ukraine and reminded her of home!

I guess on the plus side it;s nice to see Europe get more snow which sets the UK up nicely because any easterly we do get from a Scandinavian high that does build will bring in some bitterly cold air given how cold eastern Europe and Scandinavia has been and will continue to be as well as the fact by tomorrow over 50% of Europe will be snow covered looking at latest radar/satellite.

Previous winters - N. Eastern Europe Scandinavia hasn't seen a lot of snow including baltic states - so my point is that cold air is just over the North sea and it's not even December.  



 

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 



Northern blocking in winter is fine if that blocking is far enough to our north, to allow the resulting easterly flow to bring in showers from off the North Sea, but those winds need need to be cold enough for those showers to deliver some snow to these parts which isn't always the case, especially in the early part of the season when the SSTs over the North Sea are at their highest.

Furthermore, if the northern blocking is too strong, we could at the very least find that Scotland just comes under the influence of that high pressure which means that it ends up just being bone dry here. Under those circumstances, it will be the southerners who get any snow which is around, whilst Scotland gets absolutely nothing in that regard.

That to me, would be even more frustrating still.
 
The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
richardabdn
29 November 2023 10:32:53
Yet again the Met Office clowns issue a severe weather warning for nothing at all. A weather non-event that wouldn't have got any media coverage in the past but in this era, when we don't get the same extremes of weather, it has to be hyped up to something it's not 🙄

Went to bed last night with a thin covering of snow beginning to develop. In the past I would have gone on to wake up to a decent covering as the showers packed in overnight. In this utterly pitiful, lame and pathetic era, in which we can't get anything worth having, I woke up to the same embarrassingly inadequate dusting that doesn't even fully cover all surfaces. In fact doubtful if it even makes the 50% definition. Just an ugly, unphotogenic mess.

Radar looks largely dry now and no sign of any sunshine either. Just a vile perpetual grey sky yet again. An exceptionally dull end to a grim and horrific autumn 🤢🤢🤢

An utter joke. If there can't even be a proper covering then it's just 'white rain' as far as I'm concerned. Totally undesirable. It's just another miserable depressing, unpleasant day that is providing no benefits whatsoever just preventing me from doing any outdoor activity yet again 🤬
Aberdeen: The only place that misses out on everything


2023 - The Year that's Constantly Worse than a Bad November
2024 - 2023 without the Good Bits
+1
Gusty
29 November 2023 11:44:41

Yet again the Met Office clowns issue a severe weather warning for nothing at all. A weather non-event that wouldn't have got any media coverage in the past but in this era, when we don't get the same extremes of weather, it has to be hyped up to something it's not 🙄

Went to bed last night with a thin covering of snow beginning to develop. In the past I would have gone on to wake up to a decent covering as the showers packed in overnight. In this utterly pitiful, lame and pathetic era, in which we can't get anything worth having, I woke up to the same embarrassingly inadequate dusting that doesn't even fully cover all surfaces. In fact doubtful if it even makes the 50% definition. Just an ugly, unphotogenic mess.

Radar looks largely dry now and no sign of any sunshine either. Just a vile perpetual grey sky yet again. An exceptionally dull end to a grim and horrific autumn 🤢🤢🤢

An utter joke. If there can't even be a proper covering then it's just 'white rain' as far as I'm concerned. Totally undesirable. It's just another miserable depressing, unpleasant day that is providing no benefits whatsoever just preventing me from doing any outdoor activity yet again 🤬

Originally Posted by: richardabdn 



C'mon guys, who's right and who's fibbing ? 

Doc came on here earlier to state that you had light to moderate settling snow ?

doctormog
Advanced Member
 29 November 2023 07:55:08
#12
Light to moderate settling snow here currently.

Who to believe ? 
Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
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johncs2016
29 November 2023 15:36:28
My question is, when on Earth are the Met Office finally going to get it through to their thick heads that "interesting" weather just doesn't happen here in Edinburgh because once they finally realise that, they might then stop issuing these stupid and completely pointless weather warnings for here which never actually end up coming to anything.

Today is the perfect example of that because it has been clearly obvious from the very start that the wintry weather to our east was just never going to make it to here in Edinburgh because there just isn't enough of an easterly component to that wind, to actually bring those showers in from off the North Sea.

Yet in spite of that, the Met Office have still gone ahead with issuing those yellow warnings for snow and ice which have just ended up being a complete waste of time once again.

In fact, I have barely even been following these events, as following events which just never happen here are just a complete waste of time in my books.
 
The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
Saint Snow
29 November 2023 15:44:34
10 posts in this thread so far, and it's not even winter yet!

 

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Roger Parsons
29 November 2023 16:13:50
Just driven home from Boston and across the county every shaded patch is still frosted! A wonderful Turner-esque winter sunset.
RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
+1
Saint Snow
07 December 2023 13:16:25
Is there any winter weather worse than 7c and rain?

It's the epitome of bleak and miserable.

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Retron
07 December 2023 13:26:10

Is there any winter weather worse than 7c and rain?

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


Yes, 1C and rain as we had the other day here. Knowing that it's falling as snow just a couple of hundred feet up makes it even worse!

That's closely followed by severe gales and 13C, as we've had many a time in the past...

I'd rate 7C and rain as "meh" rather than "awful" or "terrible".
Leysdown, north Kent
richardabdn
07 December 2023 20:36:42
Yet another monstrously vile day as the living hell of relentless southerly tracking lows and easterly winds continues unabated 🤬

The ludicrous 7th day this year with 25mm+, 6 of which have occurred since 7th October. To put this breathtaking horror into context, normally there would be just 1 or 2 such days in an entire year and no year since 2006 has recorded more than 4 🤢🤢🤢

Now surpassed last years ludicrous total of 916.4mm to make this the wettest year in my records and still the putrid filth goes on with it now being over a month since there were more than two consecutive dry days 🤢

If there is anything good that can be said about this year then it escapes me. Beyond horrific 🤬
Aberdeen: The only place that misses out on everything


2023 - The Year that's Constantly Worse than a Bad November
2024 - 2023 without the Good Bits
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
08 December 2023 06:22:56
Not sure whether I should moan about this or not.  We awoke to a lovely 4 inches of snow last Sunday, which was great fun and our granddaughter absolutely loved it!  It turned to rain later in the afternoon and it’s hardly stopped raining since!  Everything was drying out nicely after the autumn floods but now it’s all soggy again.  It’s grey and miserable to say the least.  

Here’s the thing!  Had it all been snow and not rain, we’d be completely snowed in by now and cut off!  The 2010 snow was great fun to begin with but there comes a point when it’s just too much.  When every day life is just plain difficult and getting anywhere is impossible, you’re careful what you wish for in future.  
Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Jiries
08 December 2023 22:16:01

Not sure whether I should moan about this or not.  We awoke to a lovely 4 inches of snow last Sunday, which was great fun and our granddaughter absolutely loved it!  It turned to rain later in the afternoon and it’s hardly stopped raining since!  Everything was drying out nicely after the autumn floods but now it’s all soggy again.  It’s grey and miserable to say the least.  

Here’s the thing!  Had it all been snow and not rain, we’d be completely snowed in by now and cut off!  The 2010 snow was great fun to begin with but there comes a point when it’s just too much.  When every day life is just plain difficult and getting anywhere is impossible, you’re careful what you wish for in future.  

Originally Posted by: Caz 



Still i prefer snow than dirty rain every day.  Snow is clean, with clear skies above are very healthy.  I know someone who live near here really hate rain like myself and he ws happy to see the snow few days ago but not enough time to see it.  

I do seriuosly hope not to see those stupid drought threads pop up again it been very wet year and UK will never ever be African drought where you expect months without rain, full sunshine and high temperatures.  So any future dry spells that only last few weeks max is not a dought but welcome massive break from the rain. 
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
09 December 2023 09:11:34

Still i prefer snow than dirty rain every day.  Snow is clean, with clear skies above are very healthy.  I know someone who live near here really hate rain like myself and he ws happy to see the snow few days ago but not enough time to see it.  

I do seriuosly hope not to see those stupid drought threads pop up again it been very wet year and UK will never ever be African drought where you expect months without rain, full sunshine and high temperatures.  So any future dry spells that only last few weeks max is not a dought but welcome massive break from the rain. 

Originally Posted by: Jiries 

I’d rather have snow than rain too.  But there’s a point at which it becomes disruptive and dangerous.  We’ve had so much rain this week, had it been snow, we’d be totally cut off!  In 2010 we had lying snow for weeks from 27th November, it froze, snowed again, froze again. Then on 3rd December, a Humber streamer ensured we got completely snowed in and cut off.  Snow ploughs couldn’t even get to us.  We had a total of 18 inches falling in December.

We had a partial thaw over Christmas, which made a layer of slush beneath the snow.  Then more snow in January, over a layer of compacted icy snow making it treacherous.  Once it started to clear, we were left with grey icy piles along roadsides and in car parks, some lasted until Easter!  After a week of disruption it really became unpleasant and I do not want to experience that again. 
Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
doctormog
09 December 2023 09:24:51
I’d settle for almost anything that is not the incessant east/southeasterly muck that has been dominating our weather in recent weeks (years?).

More of the same today and coming days after a very wet and neither mild nor cool autumn. Tedious in the extreme.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
richardabdn
10 December 2023 10:30:39
I had to go to the dentist to get a tooth extracted on Wednesday and that was the high point of the past five days🤢

Yet another spell of excruciatingly awful good for nothing write-off  🐕💩 from a year that has seldom produced anything but.

Even worse than October and November with this grotesque winter having only two dry days so far and near constant rain/drizzle across the past ludicrous four days which have produced more than the full month average so just like October the full monthly average has been exceeded before the first third is complete. November took until the 14th 🤢

It's just a relentless feed of filth off the North Sea. Even when the radar looks dry there is a hideous drizzle that just won't ever let up. Made the mistake of going out on the bike yesterday morning, the first time I've made an attempt in the two weeks since I was forced to leave the paradise of the Canaries and return to this unliveable hellhole which I despise with every bone in my body. Ran into a heavy soaking drizzle in Kingswells that didn't show up on the radar. Had to head back straight away as it was just hideous and unpleasant in the extreme. Doesn't look there is any point in trying today. It's just the same vile rubbish ad nauseum 🤬

The high pressure dry spell seems to be downgrading into nothing at all. I'm sure by the time it "arrives" it will have mutated into a continuation of this unadulterated horror. Almost guaranteed to hit the disgusting metre of rain for the year now and every single December of the 2020s, so far, will be wetter than every single December of the 2010s, bar 2012. Once again it seems there is no floor on how low things can sink 🤢🤢

Utterly woeful coma-inducing dire temperatures - average by day and the same stupidly mild rubbish at night. A range from 3.9C to 8.1C since Wednesday evening with no sunshine at all or even daylight. Need the lights on all the time. It will be lighter north of the Arctic circle with the snow cover doing more to ameliorate the effects of the 24 hour darkness 🙄

6th weekend this year with zero sunshine - as many as in the previous four years combined. Unpleasant, unusuable, uninteresting. All the time 🤬
Aberdeen: The only place that misses out on everything


2023 - The Year that's Constantly Worse than a Bad November
2024 - 2023 without the Good Bits
Saint Snow
11 December 2023 10:37:26
Seems that* most Decembers have a period of the models showing something potentially magical for the Xmas season, then systematically downgrade until that festive fortnight is just a continuation of the bland, boring mild and damp dirge that characterises most of the British climate.

It's bloody tiresome! 






* I have zero evidence to back this up! 😊

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
roadrunnerajn
11 December 2023 11:14:16
I have a theory…. The charts seem to underestimate the polar vortex in November and early December showing in some cases stunning charts. As the Arctic cools down in December and the contrast between warmer mid latitudes are exaggerated further the vortex really starts to fire helping the jet become stronger.
I have no doubt that the high pressure to our south is slowly advancing northwards during winter months. I know there are many variables and sometimes we get lucky but I am talking in a general sense from many years of observation.
Why does the high to our south tend to move towards us giving us very mild conditions whilst more eastern areas can freeze? I would say the jet as a rule tends to follow the
Atlantic conveyor allowing the high to build northwards. 
It’s just an idea nothing more than that.
Germoe, part of the breakaway Celtic Republic.
Saint Snow
11 December 2023 16:02:42

Yes, 1C and rain as we had the other day here. Knowing that it's falling as snow just a couple of hundred feet up makes it even worse!

That's closely followed by severe gales and 13C, as we've had many a time in the past...

I'd rate 7C and rain as "meh" rather than "awful" or "terrible".

Originally Posted by: Retron 




I get what you're saying, but with rain at 1c, you know there's a chance of it turning to snow and the hope remains. And winds do give a sense of excitement (even if it's laced with worries about your fences!)

7c is too warm for snow, so that hope is removed. But it's also cool and feels thoroughly miserable. 

Just depressing


 

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Essan
11 December 2023 16:13:41

Yes, 1C and rain as we had the other day here.

Originally Posted by: Retron 



I've had worse than that.  Try -1c and rain - as we had here the other week! 
Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job - DNA
#climate #snow #coldwinter #globalwarming #jetstream #El-Nino

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