theweatheroutlook

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CField
29 November 2023 09:23:11
ECM got a very December 78 look to it...be great to get a brutal cold snap starting late Dec into Jan ......
Favourite snowstorm
Famous channel low
Dec 31st 1978
Hastings East Sussex
Foot of level snow severe drifting
Next day max temp -4 degrees Celsius
+2
Martybhoy
29 November 2023 09:29:42
IBM showing some hopeful signs in this neck of the woods.

UserPostedImage 
200m above sea level
Rural East Ayrshire
Near to the village of Sorn
Saint Snow
29 November 2023 10:19:51

ECM got a very December 78 look to it...be great to get a brutal cold snap starting late Dec into Jan ......

Originally Posted by: CField 




You tease!


😀

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
ballamar
29 November 2023 10:20:49
Looking forward to some damp drizzly weather next week by the look of things - typical run up to Xmas 😂
Rob K
29 November 2023 10:36:03
Still a few straws to clutch at... the 6Z GFS control run is interesting, and the ECM seems to be sending a trough southeast into Europe which could liven things up.

Overall though it looks as if any snow chances for the south this week have evaporated, and then there is going to be at least a week of westerly crud to get through.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Ally Pally Snowman
29 November 2023 10:36:13

Looking forward to some damp drizzly weather next week by the look of things - typical run up to Xmas 😂

Originally Posted by: ballamar 



Approaching date record territory on the GFS 6z 14/15c late next week now . 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
ballamar
29 November 2023 10:43:38
If that HP belt over the Azores can flatten further then there is decent potential for mid December onwards, but given recent patterns this is not the usual way it develops. Hopefully can still be festive seasonal before Xmas - like this week is but better for all
moomin75
29 November 2023 11:08:46

Still a few straws to clutch at... the 6Z GFS control run is interesting, and the ECM seems to be sending a trough southeast into Europe which could liven things up.

Overall though it looks as if any snow chances for the south this week have evaporated, and then there is going to be at least a week of westerly crud to get through.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 



At least a week, likely a bit more. We all know how stubborn to shift westerly patterns are....they can proceed for several weeks!!
However, there are so many background signals in our favour this time, not least the intense cold to our north-east, that I feel it may be a relatively short-lived westerly spell on this occasion with more interest into mid-December.
We can but hope eh?
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Rob K
29 November 2023 11:54:33

At least a week, likely a bit more. We all know how stubborn to shift westerly patterns are....they can proceed for several weeks!!
However, there are so many background signals in our favour this time, not least the intense cold to our north-east, that I feel it may be a relatively short-lived westerly spell on this occasion with more interest into mid-December.
We can but hope eh?

Originally Posted by: moomin75 


Yes and the models don't quite seem to want to give up on the signal for heights to rise to the north - the 6Z GFS shows it again with a weak high bubbling up to the north late in the run and some decent cold to the northeast.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
moomin75
29 November 2023 12:01:51

Yes and the models don't quite seem to want to give up on the signal for heights to rise to the north - the 6Z GFS shows it again with a weak high bubbling up to the north late in the run and some decent cold to the northeast.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Absolutely, winter is most definitely NOT over. And in fact I rather anticipate an interesting December, even if we do have to get through a period of warmth first, as showed on this morning's 6z.
15c next week if it's right, but very often in past cold winters, potent cold spells have been preceeded by notable warmth!
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Gusty
29 November 2023 12:01:57
I look at these ensembles and still feel that we are slightly in the game. 

P18 offers a tease. The operational a mild outlier.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49909&model=gfs&var=5&run=6&lid=ENS&bw= 
Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



The Beast from the East
29 November 2023 12:24:34

Absolutely, winter is most definitely NOT over. And in fact I rather anticipate an interesting December, even if we do have to get through a period of warmth first, as showed on this morning's 6z.
15c next week if it's right, but very often in past cold winters, potent cold spells have been preceeded by notable warmth!

Originally Posted by: moomin75 



What have you done with the real Moomin?! Normally you are as glass half empty as me!
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Quantum
29 November 2023 15:04:14
ICON12Z looks better than the 6Z to me for long term cold.
 
Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
cultman1
29 November 2023 15:20:33
The current Met Office update of this afternoon advises that the cold will continue well into next week ….. until at least  5 December 
squish
29 November 2023 15:26:13
ICON 12z has a hint of yesterdays blockbuster GFS run ….just a hint ! 
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
Saint Snow
29 November 2023 15:27:48

The operational a mild outlier.

Originally Posted by: Gusty 



Ah, but is it actually a true outlier?

 

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
+1
Quantum
29 November 2023 16:11:26
Its clear the 12Z set is a strict upgrade on the 6Z and 0Z for those wanting a longer cold spell.
 
Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
The Beast from the East
29 November 2023 16:28:24

Its clear the 12Z set is a strict upgrade on the 6Z and 0Z for those wanting a longer cold spell.
 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 



More Support for heights to the north, but not enough undercutting of the jet and the end result is still the same.
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
nsrobins
29 November 2023 17:04:21

More Support for heights to the north, but not enough undercutting of the jet and the end result is still the same.

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


The 12Z GEFS set might surprise a few and the OP solution (breakdown) for the first time in a few runs not looking as clear cut.
 
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Saint Snow
29 November 2023 17:28:07
Icon 12z builds a high over Scandinavia that then disrupts a meaty Atlantic low by the end of the run (over the UK), with hints of energy slipping underneath into Europe.

GFS's 12z does start to build pressure over Scandinavia, too (albeit slacker) - but then has the low blast it out of the way as the low moves NNE'wards over NI & Scotland. They have the big Siberian High sinking south and then slipping south-eastwards (to open the door for Atlantic lows to take a more zonal path)

GEM initially looks closer to Icon, but with the low getting further east before stalling and disrupting less clearly. GEM also begins to sink the Siberian high.
 

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Rob K
29 November 2023 17:39:58

The 12Z GEFS set might surprise a few and the OP solution (breakdown) for the first time in a few runs not looking as clear cut.
 

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


Yes it may be hopecasting but I am getting the feeling the models are fishing around for a way back to cold. Pressure looks stronger to the north and I wouldn't be all that surprised to see a flip back towards something more seasonal.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Ally Pally Snowman
29 November 2023 17:44:37
Looks about 30% of the GFS ensembles stay cold. 
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=gfs&var=2&run=12&lid=ENS&bw=1 
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
squish
29 November 2023 18:15:16
Short ensembles have trended colder...with the op on the much milder side but synoptically not far off.

Within all these charts and interpretations the holy grail is hidden and not too far from a possibility. The 06z NAVGEM was a great run. Be interesting to see the 12z soon.
 
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
doctormog
29 November 2023 18:21:01
The pattern from the outset of the current cold spell has been cold until the 5th or 6th of December then a signal for milder/more average conditions within a range of outcomes. I still see that as the case, a milder outcome more likely but not a foregone conclusion. The cold air mass in parts of NE Europe is a factor to consider. As always in these situations I am reluctant to make any forecast in the period beyond the coming week, except for trends. That trend is probably milder but uncertain.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
+2
squish
29 November 2023 18:37:34
Good post Doc.

I would say more than the average level of uncertainty, but the 12z's show less sign of the whole pattern being blown away completely, even if there is a temporary warm up for parts....
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
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