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Ally Pally Snowman
28 November 2023 16:38:41
Gotta love the GFS 12z bitter easterly -10c 850s by day 10. 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
jhall
28 November 2023 16:41:38

Gotta love the GFS 12z bitter easterly -10c 850s by day 10. 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



Sod's Law said it was bound to happen as soon as people started writing off this cold spell.
Cranleigh, Surrey
warrenb
28 November 2023 16:42:11

Gotta love the GFS 12z bitter easterly -10c 850s by day 10. 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


And GEM has +8. ENS is the way forward at the moment, as there clearly an inflection point approaching which will have huge influence going forward.
Tonbridge 45m 
+2
David M Porter
28 November 2023 16:44:24

Full fat easterly on GFS 12Z next week.

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 



Didn't see that coming after the earlier GFS op runs, Brian.

I think this only serves to highlight even more just how much volatility there is in the output right now. This is still a long way from being settled one way or the other, IMO.
Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
doctormog
28 November 2023 16:47:17
The GFS 12z op run combined with the GEM highlight the uncertainty I mentioned earlier. In isolation both are of limited worth.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
ballamar
28 November 2023 16:47:18
Crazy GFS run - looks like the lows could start sliding under the Scandi high. Pretty much a dream pre Christmas scenario. Will probably be gone next run though

would rival the cold spell from 2018 and maybe even some of the better ones! Could be a trend setter
Saint Snow
28 November 2023 16:54:48
A big difference on that 12z is a big chunk of the PV sat over the Kara Sea, stopping the SH being able to be bullied eastwards by the Atlantic.

As a result, energy undercuts the SH and, by t+312, the SH is retrogressing to Iceland.

As others have said, so much volatility across (and within!) the models, that it's pointless fixating on any one outcome at present.

Damned purdy GFS run, though!!

 

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
warrenb
28 November 2023 16:55:11
Yep. GFS goes full Day After Tomorrow. Next please.
Tonbridge 45m 
Saint Snow
28 November 2023 16:56:05

Yep. GFS goes full Day After Tomorrow. Next please.

Originally Posted by: warrenb 



One of these days, mate, one of these days...

😉😁

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
moomin75
28 November 2023 17:00:55
I'm starting to think a human somewhere in GFS and ECM towers talk to each other and deliberately put out these runs manually just to toy with us all.
I am not falling for the 12z GFS one jot. A clear Outlier surely.
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
+1
Gusty
28 November 2023 17:03:51
Difficult to comment on anything past 5th December. Its nice to see options are still on the table though.
Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



warrenb
28 November 2023 17:04:12

One of these days, mate, one of these days...

😉😁

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


Can you imagine what the charts would have looked like heading toward 1987 or 1991. As you say, one day 
Tonbridge 45m 
Ally Pally Snowman
28 November 2023 17:04:43
Lol the easterly just keeps coming and coming and snow showers plowing in from the North Sea. A beauty 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
+1
David M Porter
28 November 2023 17:10:47

I'm starting to think a human somewhere in GFS and ECM towers talk to each other and deliberately put out these runs manually just to toy with us all.
I am not falling for the 12z GFS one jot. A clear Outlier surely.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 



There is so much uncertainty right now that I honestly think all bets are off wrt what happens from late next week onwards, Kieren.

I still clearly recall the state of total confusion the models were in for a while in mid-Feb 2018 when they first began to pick up on the development of the Beast, with some runs showing the Beast coming in while others wanted to bring in the atlantic. In the end the Beast won out, but it was on a knife-edge for while from what I recall.
Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
ozone_aurora
28 November 2023 17:14:51

There is so much uncertainty right now that I honestly think all bets are off wrt what happens from late next week onwards, Kieren.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 


I think all this will depend if the Monarch Butterfly will flap its wings over eastern Mexico City at 18.36 hours tonight. 😛
ballamar
28 November 2023 17:21:47

There is so much uncertainty right now that I honestly think all bets are off wrt what happens from late next week onwards, Kieren.

I still clearly recall the state of total confusion the models were in for a while in mid-Feb 2018 when they first began to pick up on the development of the Beast, with some runs showing the Beast coming in while others wanted to bring in the atlantic. In the end the Beast won out, but it was on a knife-edge for while from what I recall.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 



face it we all know GFS 12z has it nailed from 10 days out. How could you doubt such a run?
Russwirral
28 November 2023 17:21:56
moomin75
28 November 2023 17:27:01

There is so much uncertainty right now that I honestly think all bets are off wrt what happens from late next week onwards, Kieren.

I still clearly recall the state of total confusion the models were in for a while in mid-Feb 2018 when they first began to pick up on the development of the Beast, with some runs showing the Beast coming in while others wanted to bring in the atlantic. In the end the Beast won out, but it was on a knife-edge for while from what I recall.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 


Virtually zero support from the GEFS for the 12z operational run David, so I would suggest it's a run for the bin!
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
doctormog
28 November 2023 17:31:16
The range of outcomes by day 10 on the 12z GEFS ensemble set is quite notable with very little consensus.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
warrenb
28 November 2023 17:32:45

The range of outcomes by day 10 on the 12z GEFS ensemble set is quite notable with very little consensus.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


Indeed we have a spread of +10 to -8 (bet you can't guess which one is -8).
Anyway, the spread is even between the runs as well, so as said, absolutely no consensus at all.
Tonbridge 45m 
Retron
28 November 2023 17:33:50

Can you imagine what the charts would have looked like heading toward 1987 or 1991. As you say, one day 

Originally Posted by: warrenb 


I can tell you what they looked like in 1991 - the Today newspaper had a weather column by Philip Eden back then, and it showed a synoptic chart with a high to the NE of Scandinavia. The accompanying caption said "Cold high H will move southwestwards"... it was unusual, as they didn't usually say "cold high", just "high". The high did indeed move SW'wards, and a few days later we had our easterly.

They would have used the UKMO global model for that, so it picked it out a few days in advance at least.

I'm not sure about 1987, although I do know that snow was forecast as my mum freaked out... she hated snow so very much, as the previous year she'd had to help clear the road for the hearse that took her dad to the crematorium. I also know there was enough notice for her to get in a load of food and paraffin for the greenhouse heater, which was a good idea as we were cut off for over a week.
Leysdown, north Kent
+1
CField
28 November 2023 17:42:20
As a few others have wisely pointed out...this isn't a straightforward transition to Southwesterlies yet....GFS picking up on something ..... been a long time since UK was under a Rex high... 
Favourite snowstorm
Famous channel low
Dec 31st 1978
Hastings East Sussex
Foot of level snow severe drifting
Next day max temp -4 degrees Celsius
Jiries
28 November 2023 17:43:27

Can you imagine what the charts would have looked like heading toward 1987 or 1991. As you say, one day 

Originally Posted by: warrenb 



That what I am after proper subzero temps, proper band of snow follow by showers and deep cold night temps.  Not much to ask for that UK can get those temps at our lattitude zone but the ruddy models that give those always take them away from us.  This Thursday they took the snow chances out and sent them further  south.  

Why the models always doing on purpose to send hte LP with snow chances down to EU and not us? But with rain they happy to throw at us.  I always blame the models for that entirely.   That why I miss the old days no models was exist so we get better winters cold spells.
ballamar
28 November 2023 17:43:42
Couple of members agreeing with the Op run! Has to start somewhere!
warrenb
28 November 2023 17:46:34
Anyone ever noticed that p19 goes cold at the slightest sniff. I always does, I call it the brown line of cold
Tonbridge 45m 
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