It's come to that time of year now when official winter forecasts are released on various YouTube channels. Mark Vogan (like many others, I had thought that he was Scottish and he does indeed, currently live in the north of Scotland and yet, he is actually originally from Northern Ireland and has said so in many of his videos) is due to publish his winter forecast today both on his YouTube channel, and
here on his website.
Mark Vogan will base his forecasts on all of the various global drivers such as the ongoing ENSO state and SSTs. However, his motives for that tend to be heavily influenced by what is happening with the MJO and if you want to learn more about the MJO, that is the place to go. However, Mark Vogan will always gives us clues along the way as to what his thinking for the season ahead actually is, even before his forecasts are officially released.
Gavin P. on the other hand (who is also a very well known member of this forum) will be issuing his official winter forecast on YouTube on this coming weekend. Unlike Mark Vogan, Gavin P. doesn't give any clues as regards to his overall thoughts for a season ahead before the forecast for that season has been officially released, and prefers to keep everything under very close wraps until that happens. Gavin P. used to have his own website a number of years ago, but decided not to keep that up (except for the purpose of selling merchandise for his channel) as he puts out far more videos on a regular basis than any of the other YouTubers out there (that is not including all of the live streams which he does as well), and doesn't time to be able to maintain a website as well, although he does still have another channel where will sometimes discuss other aspects of his life which aren't weather related, and where he also does monthly videos on General Election predictions and what's happening with the latest opinion polls.
As for his seasonal weather forecasts though, these tend to be heavily based on the analogues which he will discuss in his series of winter update videos leading up to that and quite often, this will go against what the models are saying although that part is also included in the runup to those forecasts as separate videos.
As you can see, both of those YouTubers have their own individually different way of doing things, but they are both just as good as each other in their own way, at what they do and are both really good at that.
As I said above, Mark Vogan's forecast will be released today and up until now, he has hinted that the MJO is about to go into a less favourable phase for cold weather so that although this current cold spell may well last well into the first week of December, Mark reckons that the state of the MJO at that time is likely to result in the Atlantic regaining more of an influence with our weather then becoming milder as a result.
I can therefore just see that story playing out where we get that cold spell just now and then as it gets milder at around the end of the first week of December, that then ends up being it for our "winter". I have seen that story being played out many times in the past, and it wouldn't surprise me one single bit if that happened on this occasion as well.
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The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.