theweatheroutlook

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Ally Pally Snowman
12 December 2023 16:57:57
Retron
12 December 2023 16:58:27
For posterity, from the 12z GFS today - loads of rain for Kent, snow for much of the UK on Christmas Day. Sod's law if that comes off! (And it almost certainly won't, of course).

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/7/26609/gfs_16_318kdo5.png
UserPostedImage 
Leysdown, north Kent
Gandalf The White
12 December 2023 17:01:32

Lol a proper Christmas day Blizzard.  

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=20&model=gfs&var=53&run=12&time=312&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=6#mapref 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



Yes, and nailed on at a mere 300 hours out…..😉

Still, it’s a continuation of a gentle trend away from mild weather for Xmas.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Ally Pally Snowman
12 December 2023 17:08:08

For posterity, from the 12z GFS today - loads of rain for Kent, snow for much of the UK on Christmas Day. Sod's law if that comes off! (And it almost certainly won't, of course).

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/7/26609/gfs_16_318kdo5.png
UserPostedImage 

Originally Posted by: Retron 



What are the odds you reckon 100/1 , 1000/1?
GFS keeps dangling the festive carrot though.
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Saint Snow
12 December 2023 17:10:01

Following on from a very encouraging 12z Icon run. The 12z Gfs run looks like its going to be an absolute cracker of a run.

Originally Posted by: DPower 




Wild swings in output - the battleground is over that NE Canada/Labrador Sea. Come the weekend before Xmas, the 6z had a low there and high pressure over western USA up to the far SE of Canada. That allowed low pressure to cyclogenesis out of E Canada and across the Atlantic to us. A sort of cool zonality which wouldn't bring snow to anything other that mountains.

12z has the W USA high much further north over Hudson Bay - and with a low to the south of it. That gives the major Scandy Low the room to influence the airflow over the UK, heralding a cold northerly. The NE Canada high does drift eastwards, but certainly over Xmas that helps with the cold flow.

FI and so JFF, but I like the Xmas Eve & Day charts!

Midnight:
UserPostedImage

6am
UserPostedImage

Midday
UserPostedImage



It does start to all go tits-up on the 27th, but the wider view is that by then, the PV is getting scattered, lining us up for round 2 🤣





 

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Ally Pally Snowman
12 December 2023 17:13:55

Yes, and nailed on at a mere 300 hours out…..😉

Still, it’s a continuation of a gentle trend away from mild weather for Xmas.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 



It keeps the interest in this thread at least. Just as we think all hope is lost GFS throws us a straw to clutch. 

 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
ballamar
12 December 2023 17:14:16
The slider has popped in and out of the scenarios usually between a couple of milder runs. Perhaps there is that chance timings will work in favour of a white Xmas. Get your bets on soon!
DPower
12 December 2023 17:32:02
The trend looks to be our friend, the 12z icon run and the 12z ukmo t168 chart looks to be heading the same way as the gfs. I would not be at all surprised to see the energy south of Greenland clearing away south east quicker on future runs bringing in a more potent and direct northerly. More than happy though with the runs this afternoon so far. 
Gfs 12z control run out to t240 is already showing this. Stronger build of pressure over northeastern Canada because of this. The control run looks as though it will be an even better run than the op run.
Retron
12 December 2023 17:44:47

What are the odds you reckon 100/1 , 1000/1?
GFS keeps dangling the festive carrot though.
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Odds on rain rather than snow in Kent? 99% likely!

As for widespread snow as per the GFS, greater than 1% I'd say - but not much more.

That said, the control goes a similar way, which is always good to see.

 
Leysdown, north Kent
+1
squish
12 December 2023 18:04:50
12z GEM is also looking very promising

https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/archives/2023121212/gemnh-0-216.png?12 

 
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
Martybhoy
12 December 2023 18:33:18
We’re back on! Come on!!!!
200m above sea level
Rural East Ayrshire
Near to the village of Sorn
johncs2016
12 December 2023 18:53:44

12z GEM is also looking very promising

https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/archives/2023121212/gemnh-0-216.png?12 

 

Originally Posted by: squish 



In the meantime though, the models are showing up some really classic "if only it were summer" synoptics in many places by this coming weekend and at this time of year, you really can't get any worse than that if it's cold weather that you're after, especially given that this same Azores High was posted missing a lot of the time back in the summer when we could have done with it being around to deliver some decent weather to these parts at that time.
 
The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
Ally Pally Snowman
12 December 2023 18:57:10
ECM is still very much the Christmas Grinch tonight 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
ballamar
12 December 2023 19:11:37

ECM is still very much the Christmas Grinch tonight 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


small steps! Could easily join the fun from where it ends
DPower
12 December 2023 19:17:52

ECM is still very much the Christmas Grinch tonight 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


I would be very surprised if the control run which has the same resolution now as the op run does not show synoptics more typical of what the gfs and other models are showing this afternoon. 
The op run does not seem very feasible to me anyway with high pressure from the northwest coast of America all the way across to the mid- Atlantic.
DPower
12 December 2023 22:39:05
Looks like we are in for 18z pub run special. Even more potent than the 12z with stronger heights over north eastern Canada, this should draw a more potent and direct northerly down across the UK. I really do think we will be now seeing the cold being upgraded in future runs this week with the potential for a very cold and wintry Christmas and holiday period.
Quantum
12 December 2023 22:53:17
Worth pointing out that cold westerlies or Nwerlies are far better than easterlies for some parts of the UK and Ireland. And there is potential for extremely heavy snow showers for western areas. For eastern areas its not great, but if the wind is strong enough it can give a little snow even on the other side of the pennines.
 
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Arbroath 1320
12 December 2023 23:10:57

Looks like we are in for 18z pub run special. Even more potent than the 12z with stronger heights over north eastern Canada, this should draw a more potent and direct northerly down across the UK. I really do think we will be now seeing the cold being upgraded in future runs this week with the potential for a very cold and wintry Christmas and holiday period.

Originally Posted by: DPower 



Yip, a classic pub run special from yesteryear. A week long freeze at least if that run came off. Pity it's all in deepest FI. However, the trend is there for something colder as we approach Christmas. 
GGTTH
Quantum
12 December 2023 23:31:51
Some of the 18Z ensembles have exceptionally potent cold fronts moving across the UK around the 21st, squally line convection and actual tornadoes become a risk in this scenario.
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Zubzero
12 December 2023 23:37:56

Worth pointing out that cold westerlies or Nwerlies are far better than easterlies for some parts of the UK and Ireland. And there is potential for extremely heavy snow showers for western areas. For eastern areas its not great, but if the wind is strong enough it can give a little snow even on the other side of the pennines.
 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 



Even for the majority of Western Uk, a W/NW flow is rubbish for the majority of the population and any very heavy  snowfall will be extremely localised and decent cold unlikely. The outlook to me is the standard Winter weather we get 90% of the time.

On a side note, there is talk of lack of decent easterlies. But I wonder how rare a true decent Polar maritime airmass is these days?
Gandalf The White
13 December 2023 00:09:21

Even for the majority of Western Uk, a W/NW flow is rubbish for the majority of the population and any very heavy  snowfall will be extremely localised and decent cold unlikely. The outlook to me is the standard Winter weather we get 90% of the time.

On a side note, there is talk of lack of decent easterlies. But I wonder how rare a true decent Polar maritime airmass is these days?

Originally Posted by: Zubzero 



The 18z delivers a ‘true’ Polar Maritime flow before it becomes a fairly slack northerly; unless you meant an Arctic Maritime flow? Those are indeed rare. - they’re the ones that can spawn polar lows, which are even rarer.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


BJBlake
13 December 2023 00:45:18

Yip, a classic pub run special from yesteryear. A week long freeze at least if that run came off. Pity it's all in deepest FI. However, the trend is there for something colder as we approach Christmas. 

Originally Posted by: Arbroath 1320 


I couldn’t have said it better myself...a good trend in the direction of another cold spell. The details are never going to be clear at this juncture, but something of interest for model watchers if they are wintry weather fans, and I certainly am. Interest is always enhanced around this time of the year, Christmas should be snowy, but I was just 10 the last time i truly had a sustained wintry spell over the Christmas holidays (1970/71), with a few others that had waning wintriness, or that arrived later in the festive break period.
Brecklands, South Norfolk 28m ASL
Joe Bloggs
13 December 2023 08:07:56
I post some analysis for the first time in ages. The forum then crashes and I lose my posts. Typical 🤣🤣🤣

Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
+3
Heavy Weather 2013
13 December 2023 08:16:12
The initial drop in 850s has been well modelled for days but the mess afterwards has been more difficult.

IMHO we’ve seen some resolution now with subsequent reaction in the ensembles.

Will take a few days for further clarity to emerge. But we are in a better place than a few days ago.
Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
nsrobins
13 December 2023 08:24:06

I post some analysis for the first time in ages. The forum then crashes and I lose my posts. Typical 🤣🤣🤣

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 


Maybe your posts caused such a surge in hits that the site crashed 😉
A small thing I’ve noted - there is an uptick in Scandy high solutions in the 00Z GEFS. With the anomalous warmth in the US, that particular route might be on the menu again. 
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
+1

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