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ballamar
14 December 2023 09:22:50
Looking at GEFS think there is a big divergence from 5 days time. The overwhelming favourite will always be heights rising to the south but we could always get lucky!
Russwirral
14 December 2023 09:25:52
From memory this is setting up in a very similar fashion to Christmas 2004

I remember it wasnt really nailed on in the charts, and we spent a few weeks flipping and flopping but the consensus turned more to white than green as we drew closer on the final few days.

Im seeing very similar approach this time too

UserPostedImage

Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 
The Beast from the East
14 December 2023 10:34:10
Much flatter GFS this time. So often the way a potent northerly modelled 10 days out ends up being almost a westerly. 
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Saint Snow
14 December 2023 10:52:52

Much flatter GFS this time. So often the way a potent northerly modelled 10 days out ends up being almost a westerly. 

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 



The 6z is utterly crap.

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Crepuscular Ray
14 December 2023 11:36:31

The 6z is utterly crap.

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 



Based on this single GFS run, could be worse

Wintry showers just before Christmas

Wet and windy on the big day and Boxing day (maybe snow north of central belt)

Snow showers twixt Christmas & NY

Wet and windy NY

Next........
Jerry
Edinburgh, in the frost hollow below Blackford Hill
CField
14 December 2023 12:08:43

The 6z is utterly crap.

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

possible seeds of a Scandi High at the end....darent look to the NW....winter isn't over but I'm not optimistic..
Favourite snowstorm
Famous channel low
Dec 31st 1978
Hastings East Sussex
Foot of level snow severe drifting
Next day max temp -4 degrees Celsius
Saint Snow
14 December 2023 12:10:49

Based on this single GFS run, could be worse

Wintry showers just before Christmas

Wet and windy on the big day and Boxing day (maybe snow north of central belt)

Snow showers twixt Christmas & NY

Wet and windy NY

Next........

Originally Posted by: Crepuscular Ray 




Yes, sorry - I was being a bit IMBY in my tantrum! 😁

Better possibilities for Scotland (and probably the mountains of N Wales & Pennines)

It's a roller coaster at the moment, though - a couple of runs amplified, then a couple flatter, and so on. 

Would like them to start firming up... as long as it's the right kind of solution they firm up on!!!



 

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Brian Gaze
14 December 2023 12:50:36

I too believe wind rather than wintry will be the primary feature going into next weekend.
It isn’t however a given - just 7 days ago we were looking at this weekend being calm and cold with fog and frost. 
 

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 



Agree and I've been suggesting it for several days. However, it's quite possible the GFS / GEFS is overcooking the storm risk as much as it is overdoing the extent of the snow risk. 
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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nsrobins
14 December 2023 12:51:59

possible seeds of a Scandi High at the end....darent look to the NW....winter isn't over but I'm not optimistic..

Originally Posted by: CField 


I mentioned the same yesterday and the seeds for heights stretching NE are indeed being sown by several members. Let's see if develops.
In the meantime a potentially stormy period to come with the risk of wintry hazards on Ben Nevis (other higher elevations available on request)
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
doctormog
14 December 2023 12:55:55

Based on this single GFS run, could be worse

Wintry showers just before Christmas

Wet and windy on the big day and Boxing day (maybe snow north of central belt)

Snow showers twixt Christmas & NY

Wet and windy NY

Next........

Originally Posted by: Crepuscular Ray 



Have you moved to Ben Nevis?😇
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Saint Snow
14 December 2023 16:23:03
The 12z shaping up to be worse than the 6z

As early as next Wednesday, it's collapsing the mid-Atlantic block so the NW'ly flow doesn't even happen. Instead, the high ridges more over the southern half of the UK.

Bland, mild crap. The only bonus is that there won't be that much rain about for many.

 

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
squish
14 December 2023 16:26:05
12z gfs slows things again …although the cold snap May now coincide with Christmas Day .

ICON on the other hand ! 😯
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
Saint Snow
14 December 2023 16:30:07

12z gfs slows things again …although the cold snap May now coincide with Christmas Day .

ICON on the other hand ! 😯

Originally Posted by: squish 




Yeah, Icon looks beautiful!

Big difference between GFS and Icon is the heights over the Labrador Sea/Baffin Bay area. GFS were keen on building them, but have now steadily backed away from that, building the high much further south over Nova Scotia/New England. Icon keep the heights further north. Makes a huge difference.
 

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Saint Snow
14 December 2023 16:31:38
When you compare today's 12z with yesterday's, it's depressing.

 

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
ballamar
14 December 2023 16:46:25
Chances of a seasonal Xmas day diminishing, can still hope it’s on the mild side but trend is not promising.
Crepuscular Ray
14 December 2023 17:09:33

Have you moved to Ben Nevis?😇

Originally Posted by: doctormog 



😂 Yes I'm spending the next 3 weeks up in a bothy at 900m. I'm determined to see a flake! 😂
Jerry
Edinburgh, in the frost hollow below Blackford Hill
+1
Retron
14 December 2023 17:09:48
From tonight's 12z GEFS - in all my years, I've never seen such a low pressure on a GFS north Atlantic chart!

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/55/18685/gens_11_1_168zoq3.png
UserPostedImage 
Leysdown, north Kent
Gusty
14 December 2023 17:33:31
12z GFS run compared with previous runs continues to downgrade the coldness of the upper air. The -5c line appears to cross the south coast for 12 hours on 24th before heading north again.

The corresponding ensemble suite for London are far less keen now on bringing the cold air as far as the south of the UK.



 
Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



Polar Low
14 December 2023 18:02:18
That’s a record breaker by some distance for European and European waters


From tonight's 12z GEFS - in all my years, I've never seen such a low pressure on a GFS north Atlantic chart!

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/55/18685/gens_11_1_168zoq3.png
UserPostedImage 

Originally Posted by: Retron 

y 
doctormog
14 December 2023 18:17:06
The variety of options in a generally unstable (potentially very unsettled) flow from the NW quarter is still the form horse on the run up to and over Chrostmas. On the big day itself there is a lower chance of snow falling than in the period immediately before:

UserPostedImage


UserPostedImage

In short it could be anything from incredibly stormy to wintry. Temperatures could be anything from a bit milder than average to cold. 

More runs needed. 😃
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
ballamar
14 December 2023 19:02:47
ECM is a cracker tonight if you like SW damp winds for Xmas 
Ally Pally Snowman
14 December 2023 19:03:14
Very disappointing 12s it has to be said. 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Jiries
14 December 2023 19:22:19

From tonight's 12z GEFS - in all my years, I've never seen such a low pressure on a GFS north Atlantic chart!

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/55/18685/gens_11_1_168zoq3.png
UserPostedImage 

Originally Posted by: Retron 

If wasn't the pesky Azores HP and the LP sit over Italy, how cold it can reach here from near 100 mph easterly winds from the Urals/Siberia? I would be looking at -10C or thereabout maxes that would easily beat Jan 1987.
CField
14 December 2023 19:39:31

If wasn't the pesky Azores HP and the LP sit over Italy, how cold it can reach here from near 100 mph easterly winds from the Urals/Siberia? I would be looking at -10C or thereabout maxes that would easily beat Jan 1987.

Originally Posted by: Jiries 

over a warm North Sea
Favourite snowstorm
Famous channel low
Dec 31st 1978
Hastings East Sussex
Foot of level snow severe drifting
Next day max temp -4 degrees Celsius
Gusty
14 December 2023 19:44:32

If wasn't the pesky Azores HP and the LP sit over Italy, how cold it can reach here from near 100 mph easterly winds from the Urals/Siberia? I would be looking at -10C or thereabout maxes that would easily beat Jan 1987.

Originally Posted by: Jiries 



Now that would be a real 'day after tomorrow' scenario !  🙂
Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



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