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Saint Snow
28 December 2023 17:45:36

Shannon entropy is high

Originally Posted by: Retron 



What's she been smoking?

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
+1
White Meadows
28 December 2023 19:08:59
Looks like most models have backed right off from a cold outbreak. Met office still have it in the long ranger but the signal keeps getting pushed back since before Christmas. Chance of a severe and prolonged widespread spell probably 12/1 based on current trends. 
I wonder if this increases the chance for a mild or very mild setup arriving later next month?
Would be great to see the daffodils poking up early. 
Gandalf The White
28 December 2023 19:09:13

A mate describes this choice of words as a "Zen Exercise". i.e. Sitting on a fence that isn't there. 😁

Originally Posted by: Roger Parsons 



🤣🤣🤣
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


David M Porter
28 December 2023 19:13:54

Looks like most models have backed right off from a cold outbreak. Met office still have it in the long ranger but the signal keeps getting pushed back since before Christmas. Chance of a severe and prolonged widespread spell probably 12/1 based on current trends. 
I wonder if this increases the chance for a mild or very mild setup arriving later next month?
Would be great to see the daffodils poking up early. 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 



Wrt the bit in bold, I'm not sure how you reach that conclusion at this stage?

There are suggestions in some op runs of HP taking over the week after next. Assuming that happens (and it's a big assumption to make at this range), where the HP goes after that will almost certainly determine whether or not a cold spell follows.

We've still got another week of the current unsettled weather to go according to the models before any possbility of a change of pattern is signalled.
Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
+3
Gandalf The White
28 December 2023 19:21:56

Looks like most models have backed right off from a cold outbreak. Met office still have it in the long ranger but the signal keeps getting pushed back since before Christmas. Chance of a severe and prolonged widespread spell probably 12/1 based on current trends. 
I wonder if this increases the chance for a mild or very mild setup arriving later next month?
Would be great to see the daffodils poking up early. 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 



I don’t think that’s a fair summary of the latest output.  The GFS ensembles have still got a lot of blocked perturbations, GEM ends very cold, ECM ends on the cool side.   This is still a long way from resolved, especially as any SSW is still a week away and who knows what impact that might have - or not have.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


White Meadows
28 December 2023 19:28:58

Wrt the bit in bold, I'm not sure how you reach that conclusion at this stage?

There are suggestions in some op runs of HP taking over the week after next. Assuming that happens (and it's a big assumption to make at this range), where the HP goes after that will almost certainly determine whether or not a cold spell follows.

We've still got another week of the current unsettled weather to go according to the models before any possbility of a change of pattern is signalled.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 


Of course they’ll continue to chop and change, but there’s no doubt we’re in a rather dumbed down situation compared to the last few days re coldie hopes. 
 
David M Porter
28 December 2023 19:41:19

Of course they’ll continue to chop and change, but there’s no doubt we’re in a rather dumbed down situation compared to the last few days re coldie hopes. 
 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 



IMHO, it's way too early at the moment to be casting any judgement one way or the other wrt the output beyond next week as we are talking about 10+ days away. That is a very long time in model output terms and not a range we can have anything even approaching a small level of confidence in just now.

Next week still looks rather unsettled as per the present moment and what we have seen over the past three weeks. That is about as much as we can have anything like a reasonable amount of confidence in right now. Beyond next week, who knows, but there are some subtle suggestions appearing in some op runs now of a change in pattern after next week. What sort of change it will be, assuming it happens at all, we don't know and won't know for some time yet. However that is what is being suggested at least in some runs.
Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
doctormog
28 December 2023 19:51:48
The ECM 12z ensemble mean looks quite conducive for colder weather in the week to ten day period.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
White Meadows
28 December 2023 19:52:29

IMHO, it's way too early at the moment to be casting any judgement one way or the other wrt the output beyond next week as we are talking about 10+ days away. That is a very long time in model output terms and not a range we can have anything even approaching a small level of confidence in just now.

Next week still looks rather unsettled as per the present moment and what we have seen over the past three weeks. That is about as much as we can have anything like a reasonable amount of confidence in right now. Beyond next week, who knows, but there are some subtle suggestions appearing in some op runs now of a change in pattern after next week. What sort of change it will be, assuming it happens at all, we don't know and won't know for some time yet. However that is what is being suggested at least in some runs.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 


Totally agree with this. But it still doesn’t detract from today’s output vs the picture painted over last few days. 
Gusty
28 December 2023 19:58:41

What's she been smoking?

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 



SSW - Some special weed 😉
Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



+1
David M Porter
28 December 2023 20:20:40

Totally agree with this. But it still doesn’t detract from today’s output vs the picture painted over last few days. 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 



I for one treated the output from earlier in the week with a great deal of caution, for the reason of the reduction in data there was during Xmas Day and Boxing Day which Darren (Retron) and others rightly spoke about beforehand. I am fairly sure that others here did the same over Xmas.

For me, it is pointless at the moment fretting over the time period in question because it is still over a week away. What is mildly encouraging IMO is that a possible end to the current very unsettled spell is being suggested, albeit tentatively. Whether it happens or not as shown is another thing, but it is one straw to clutch at the moment in my view, if nothing else.
Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
+2
White Meadows
28 December 2023 20:50:33

The ECM 12z ensemble mean looks quite conducive for colder weather in the week to ten day period.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


Maybe for northernmost regions. London not even scraping a frost as far as the eye can see:
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=ecm&var=202&run=12&lid=ENS&bw=1 

 
doctormog
28 December 2023 21:02:24

Maybe for northernmost regions. London not even scraping a frost as far as the eye can see:
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=ecm&var=202&run=12&lid=ENS&bw=1 

 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 



Yet below the long term average from the 4th of January to the end of the set (13th). My comment was not for “northernmost regions” it was a general observation on the synoptics. It looks colder than average, possibly not exceptionally wintry just below average. It ties in well with the Met Office outlook.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
+2
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
28 December 2023 21:27:08


Would be great to see the daffodils poking up early. 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 



Come to Chichester - we already have buds showing!
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Saint Snow
28 December 2023 21:48:48

SSW - Some special weed

Originally Posted by: Gusty 



😁

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
squish
28 December 2023 21:50:49
I feel a pub run is due....
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
+1
White Meadows
28 December 2023 22:10:19

Come to Chichester - we already have buds showing!

Originally Posted by: DEW 

The Shannon SSW type? 
+1
White Meadows
28 December 2023 23:00:59

I feel a pub run is due....

Originally Posted by: squish 



Not even close nor any cigars on the pub run. 
GFS playing it cool on the shandy instead after LOD from the local bus routes. 
Gandalf The White
28 December 2023 23:04:30

I feel a pub run is due....

Originally Posted by: squish 



If that’s the pub run then the beer’s off…
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


+1
Joe Bloggs
28 December 2023 23:10:43

If that’s the pub run then the beer’s off…

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 



It’s that awful it’s quite amusing. 🤣🤣🤣

Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
White Meadows
28 December 2023 23:33:40

It’s that awful it’s quite amusing. 🤣🤣🤣

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 



Maybe it’s February’s year again… or March. 

Or April 🤣
 
UncleAlbert
28 December 2023 23:52:40

It’s that awful it’s quite amusing. 🤣🤣🤣

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 


​​​​​​Going by recent ensemble output and if tonights GEFS at least follows suit I feel that some more interesting Op runs are likely tomorrow.  So certainly not a time for giving up on this  particularly chase............yet.
BJBlake
29 December 2023 00:09:08
GFS Control is worthy of a pub run - new barrel just in!!!
And pert’ 17 is a pretty thing to behold, but there again I have a dozen straws in each hand!!

😂🤣😅
Brecklands, South Norfolk 28m ASL
Snow Hoper
29 December 2023 00:29:12
Looks like the Garden Footpath System has led us up another one! 
Going to war over religion is like killing each other to see who has the better imaginary friend.


Home : Thorndon, Suffolk.
+1
White Meadows
29 December 2023 02:51:47

Looks like the Garden Footpath System has led us up another one! 

Originally Posted by: Snow Hoper 



🤣🤣🤣

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