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Retron
29 December 2023 12:34:33
Quite an upgrade (for cold) in the 6z GEFS - even a couple of -14s appearing down here.
 
Leysdown, north Kent
+1
Joe Bloggs
29 December 2023 12:51:25

Quite an upgrade (for cold) in the 6z GEFS - even a couple of -14s appearing down here.
 

Originally Posted by: Retron 



Hopefully they are moving towards the EPS and we’ll reach a proper consensus for cold. 

Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
The Beast from the East
29 December 2023 13:23:50
The hysteria has started again in the media and on netweather. How long before Pete Tong enters the building as usual! We never learn!

 
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
+1
UncleAlbert
29 December 2023 14:48:17

1986?
 

Originally Posted by: jhall 


Remember that well.  The synoptic set up was there by the end of Jan.  But 29th to 31st was just cold drizzle across the south.  The proper cold started in the first few days of Feb, so very close especially considering the duration after that.
ballamar
29 December 2023 15:37:10

The hysteria has started again in the media and on netweather. How long before Pete Tong enters the building as usual! We never learn!

 

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 



why not enjoy it and embrace the charts - if it happens great if not nothing has gone wrong. 
+1
UncleAlbert
29 December 2023 16:39:09

why not enjoy it and embrace the charts - if it happens great if not nothing has gone wrong. 

Originally Posted by: ballamar 


Yep, that's what us ice heads do! ⛄😄
Ally Pally Snowman
29 December 2023 16:40:14
Both the 12z GFS and GEM get somewhere interesting by day 10 again. Maybe one day it will be interesting by day 2.
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Joe Bloggs
29 December 2023 16:46:21
Nothing exciting on the 12z GFS op so far.

However I love the idea of a UK anticyclone right now tbf.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_240_1.png 



 

Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
Joe Bloggs
29 December 2023 17:00:51
…… albeit as we head into proper FI some HLB popping up.

If the 12z EPS remain solidly cold maybe the chase will be back on. 
 

Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
Joe Bloggs
29 December 2023 17:20:09
12z GEFS are a mixed bag but most show HP to the NW. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSPANELEU12_210_1.png 

Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
ballamar
29 December 2023 17:35:12
GEM op and control look decent for some colder conditions
Gusty
29 December 2023 18:20:30
GEFS 264 hour mean is showing a fairly strong signal for a strong HP slap bang over the UK. 
If this is a response to the warming stratosphere then its happy days from me too !
Just what is needed at eating away the clock in these dark winter days as we head ever so slowly towards Spring.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&run=12&time=264&lid=AVG&h=0&mv=0&tr=6#mapref 

A fairly good clustering of colder 850Hpa's to spark a little interest too !

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=gfs&var=2&run=12&lid=ENS&bw= 
 
Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
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doctormog
29 December 2023 18:36:02
I did a quick check (Retron-style) to see how many GEFS members reached -10°C or below at 850 hPa for this loction and the total was 20. Quite encouraging if it’s cold your after.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Ally Pally Snowman
29 December 2023 18:57:20
ECM 12z completes the hattrick of Ops that get interesting by day 10. Pulling teeth comes to mind.
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
CField
29 December 2023 19:09:22
UserPostedImage
This is telling me not to buy into it yet
Favourite snowstorm
Famous channel low
Dec 31st 1978
Hastings East Sussex
Foot of level snow severe drifting
Next day max temp -4 degrees Celsius
doctormog
29 December 2023 19:14:38

UserPostedImage
This is telling me not to buy into it yet

Originally Posted by: CField 



I wouldn’t advocate “buying into” anything as that would almost inevitably lead to disappointment if you’re after wintry weather. The ongoing trend is however worth keeping an eye on. Some crisp settled days will do me just fine but that may still be a few days off.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
+2
Joe Bloggs
29 December 2023 19:24:11
Taking the output at face value I think we are heading towards a change in weather type in the longer term to something cooler and more anticylonic. Hopefully lots of settled weather which after the deluge we’ve had recently ain’t no bad thing. 

Yes not a wildly exciting analysis but I think that’s what we’re looking at for now. 🤓

Maybe we’ll get some retrogression and a genuine cold feed into FI in line with the EPS and MetO long ranger. 

Much more confident now of HP taking control though. 👍

Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
+1
Gandalf The White
29 December 2023 19:41:28

ECM 12z completes the hattrick of Ops that get interesting by day 10. Pulling teeth comes to mind.
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



I’d say it starts to get interesting at Day 6 as the LP starts to stall south of Newfoundland and starts a little WAA moving northwards.  The deep LP exiting the Eastern Seaboard at Day 7 stalls and heads north and promotes more significant WAA from Day 8.

Be interesting to see how much support there is amongst the ensemble suite.
.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


+3
David M Porter
29 December 2023 19:52:11

Taking the output at face value I think we are heading towards a change in weather type in the longer term to something cooler and more anticylonic. Hopefully lots of settled weather which after the deluge we’ve had recently ain’t no bad thing. 

Yes not a wildly exciting analysis but I think that’s what we’re looking at for now. 🤓

Maybe we’ll get some retrogression and a genuine cold feed into FI in line with the EPS and MetO long ranger. 

Much more confident now of HP taking control though. 👍

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 



I'll second that, Joe. 👍

A settled spell, even if it isn't especially cold, will be most welcome after what we've had thrown at us recently. The small burn that runs alongside my street is normally little more than a gentle trickle of water. However, after the wet weather of the past three weeks or so, it looks more like a small river at the moment. The ground generally is totally saturated and really in no condition to withstand an continuation of the onslaught from the atlantic. I suspect the same is the case in many other areas too just now.
Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
+1
Polar Low
29 December 2023 19:57:58
Absolutely! some on 0z came a little forward 12z set running a little late tonight control out to 84 nothing much to report thus far 


quote=Gandalf The White;1557377]I’d say it starts to get interesting at Day 6 as the LP starts to stall south of Newfoundland and starts a little WAA moving northwards.  The deep LP exiting the Eastern Seaboard at Day 7 stalls and heads north and promotes more significant WAA from Day 8.

Be interesting to see how much support there is amongst the ensemble suite.
.

Ally Pally Snowman
29 December 2023 20:38:31
ECM 12z ensembles are the coldest yet. Its definitely been a positive day today. Yesterday it was looking very ropey.

 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Polar Low
29 December 2023 20:47:46
Most have cold outbreak from north or n/e or home grown cold at day 10
Good supply of very cold to the n/e on >90% set
something we’ve not had over past winters generally pleased at this stage

 
Brian Gaze
29 December 2023 22:05:38
I'll start a new thread in a minute.
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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