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Ally Pally Snowman
06 January 2024 19:06:01
That's the spirit just talk about snowflakes and ignore the ECM.  😆

Hope for better tmrw.
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Hippydave
06 January 2024 19:08:39
I'd generally expect GFS to be the model spitting energy all over the place to mess up a cold pattern but ECM has that with spades on this op run. Hopefully a more encouraging ens set will appear later, which with the rest of the output would suggest the op can be discounted for now.
Home: Tunbridge Wells
Work: Tonbridge
Polar Low
06 January 2024 19:12:44
Fab ukmo 
https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmoeu.php?&ech=168&mode=0&carte=1 
TBH perhaps we should be looking for Brian’s blended solution 
Both ukmo and ecm look very different N/H
again we wait for the ecm set
 
fairweather
06 January 2024 19:18:15
@Caz - take the Northern IMBY's then the Southern IMBY's view and YBY will be somewhere in between but drier. 😂
S.Essex, 42m ASL
Whether Idle
06 January 2024 19:19:07

Fab ukmo 
https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmoeu.php?&ech=168&mode=0&carte=1 
TBH perhaps we should be looking for Brian’s blended solution 
Both ukmo and ecm look very different N/H
again we wait for the ecm set
 

Originally Posted by: Polar Low 



On this NH view you can see North America getting really shafted by the cold at 168...
https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmoeu.php?ech=168&mode=1&carte=1&type=&archive= 

 
Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Polar Low
06 January 2024 19:23:50

On this NH view you can see North America getting really shafted by the cold at 168...
https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmoeu.php?ech=168&mode=1&carte=1&type=&archive= 

 

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 


Quite literally 😁 Amazing how it always seem to come good for them (hint)


 
warrenb
06 January 2024 19:42:11
Short waves are hissy fits for models
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
06 January 2024 19:49:45

@Caz - take the Northern IMBY's then the Southern IMBY's view and YBY will be somewhere in between but drier. 😂

Originally Posted by: fairweather 

😀That would work well for me!  Anything but this quagmire and closed roads.  I just want dry feet and to get from A to B without a 50 mile diversion due to flooding.   👍
Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Chunky Pea
06 January 2024 19:52:52
EC day 10 still looking northerly, though I'm only looking at the pressure pattern in isolation. 
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 


"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
doctormog
06 January 2024 19:53:12
As expected the ensemble (mean) picture from the 12z ECM set are largely unchanged. 

Day 8 mean: https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMAVGEU12_192_1.png 

Day 10 mean: https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMAVGEU12_240_1.png  
Hungry Tiger
06 January 2024 20:05:12
It's looking like we're about to lose this cold spell. This isn't the first time this has happened. I hope I'm wrong.   🙂 
Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


doctormog
06 January 2024 20:10:25

It's looking like we're about to lose this cold spell. This isn't the first time this has happened. I hope I'm wrong.   🙂 

Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 



Really? Based on one operational run of one model which is not representative of its own ensembles? It looks as likely as it ever did.
UncleAlbert
06 January 2024 20:11:02
Well, the last thread was a 7 day affair.  If this one is as short then I suspect my snow boots will ultimately come out of the shed around the 16th - 20th for the first time since I moved to North Somerset 10 years ago.  (Missed BFTE - in Canaries).   Unfortunately, here in the South granted that many snow events are created by battle scenarios, it seems that that the forces for winter are supported by a very long and tenuous supply line that can be outflanked with ease, as demonstrated by the projected set up.  May this thread be long in pages and not time.
Heavy Weather 2013
06 January 2024 20:49:27

It's looking like we're about to lose this cold spell. This isn't the first time this has happened. I hope I'm wrong.   🙂 

Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 



Erm, it’s already cold with a risk of snow on Monday. How can we lose ‘this cold spell’. Total nonsense.
Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Hungry Tiger
06 January 2024 21:01:25

Erm, it’s already cold with a risk of snow on Monday. How can we lose ‘this cold spell’. Total nonsense.

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 



As I said- hope I'm wrong.    🙏   🙂 
Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


Ally Pally Snowman
06 January 2024 21:07:39
ECM ensembles trending the wrong way and back to average from about 19th down here. We need improvements sharpish 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
David M Porter
06 January 2024 21:10:33

It's looking like we're about to lose this cold spell. This isn't the first time this has happened. I hope I'm wrong.   🙂 

Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 



We would only be "losing" this cold spell of it had been the case that the models had been in good agreement as to one happening and had then changed their minds. Rather like we have seen happen in the model output many times through the years.

There was, IIRC, a suggestion of this in a couple of GFS op runs last Sunday which showed HP moving SE over the UK and then settling to the south, a bit like we saw during mid-late December. However, since Monday/Tuesday there has been pretty good and solid agreement about this week's colder spell. What happens beyond this week has still to be fully resolved, one way or another.
Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
warrenb
06 January 2024 21:34:06

Met office app just updated to a high of 3 and light snow from 6am to 3pm for monday
Gandalf The White
06 January 2024 21:39:49

ECM ensembles trending the wrong way and back to average from about 19th down here. We need improvements sharpish 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



The ensemble mean 850hPa value for Day 10 for our location is still -6c with a spread of -3 to -9.  The op was at the mild end of the spread.

I don’t call that average?
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


jhall
06 January 2024 21:49:56

ECM ensembles trending the wrong way and back to average from about 19th down here. We need improvements sharpish 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


The 19th is a long way away. And there seem to be quite a few ensemble members that keep it cold even that far out, although they are of course in a minority.
Cranleigh, Surrey
Polar Low
06 January 2024 21:51:57
Jiries
06 January 2024 21:55:13

ECM ensembles trending the wrong way and back to average from about 19th down here. We need improvements sharpish 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



Remember this model is a trouble/spoiler maker that always set out o ruin any cold chances remember what happened before?
Polar Low
06 January 2024 22:04:49

The ensemble mean 850hPa value for Day 10 for our location is still -6c with a spread of -3 to -9.  The op was at the mild end of the spread.

I don’t call that average?

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 



I would say a tad colder than you mention for day 10 quite a few manage to get the cold to London,
we all know day 10 is many moons away
Also out of interest look at the uncertainty even about 850,s for London on Monday

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwfens_table.php?x=0&y=0&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&run=12&ext=1&mode=0&sort=0 
 
Gusty
06 January 2024 22:05:02
Nice to see the GFS has finally started to entertain the idea of a Thames Streamer on Monday.

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/royaume-uni/precipitations-hd/45h.htm 
 
Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



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