The ensemble mean 850hPa value for Day 10 for our location is still -6c with a spread of -3 to -9.  The op was at the mild end of the spread.

I don’t call that average?

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

18z looking good thus far!
 

Originally Posted by: squish 

This op looks as though it will entertain 

Originally Posted by: ballamar 

Yes, all the models with the exception of the ECM op run are. 

The 18z GFS also brings colder air in sooner on this run (-10 t850# into the northern mainland at 168 hr)

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

ok don’t rub it in 🥲

Originally Posted by: Polar Low 

Icon a bit more widespread than gfs potentially quite a wintry day from all 3 18z for many 
https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/icon.aspx?run=18&charthour=48&chartname=ukpreciptype&chartregion=uk&charttag=Precip%20type 
 

Originally Posted by: Polar Low 

It’s an observation not a gloat and the cold moves south.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

Nice to see the GFS has finally started to entertain the idea of a Thames Streamer on Monday.

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/royaume-uni/precipitations-hd/45h.htm 
 

Originally Posted by: Gusty 

A pretty dull dream then! 😁

It's not until 360 that there's significant snow over England, and even then it turns straight back to rain - the synoptics flatter to deceive.

I do wonder what we'd all have made of the classic winters of yore, had the GFS been accessible back then! (It was around in the 80s, for example, albeit called the MRF model back then, but not for us mere mortals to see... that had to wait until the mid 90s.)

That said, unimpressed though I am by the 12z, at least it continues the theme of being mostly dry, and keeping our northern contingent happy!

Originally Posted by: Retron 

Just joking Michael, I pretty chilled out about the 2 potential cold spell down here at least we have some potentially very cold air to tap into this year.
I do think it’s starting to look a good January for Northern Districts at least if it’s cold your after.

 

Originally Posted by: Polar Low 

I see that the Wash streamer come up at midnight on 54 hours tab and I am right under it.  If that happened that good timing to be at night and get up to see some covering on the ground.  

Originally Posted by: Jiries 

Pretty drab output across the board for long term cold. 
12z EC underwhelming and the pub run is a horror show at the end. 
 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 

I know what you mean I enjoy the extra reflection you get back from the snow you can tell it has snowed before you draw the curtains.
I love that crispeee sound under foot 👍

 

Originally Posted by: Polar Low 

Pretty drab output across the board for long term cold. 
12z EC underwhelming and the pub run is a horror show at the end. 
 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 

Yes indeed all those expectations of a strong PV displacement, SSW, HLB, negative NAO etc, but it now looks like a few colder drier days and then back to an Atlantic dominated pattern with really not much to shout about when it's all over.

Hope I'm wrong but don't see that much hope for anything memorable.

J

Originally Posted by: shepherd