theweatheroutlook

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Saint Snow
08 January 2024 13:25:24

This is exactly what I thought when I saw that final frame. Our HP merging with that massive Arctic high, meeting in the middle over Scandinavia. Looks very Jan 87 and would have the potential to deliver a 1 in 100 year event. 
 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 




Cold easterlies generally tend not to bring snow to MBY - but the way this colder period is shaping up, we may get snow before such a change to an easterly*, which I'd certainly be happy about as the easterly would just preserve the snow on the ground


* usual caveats about the reliability of charts at +384 😂

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
+1
Saint Snow
08 January 2024 13:26:40

Again glamorous charts.

Again waiting for a frost.....
 

Originally Posted by: The Dub Version 




5th morning running we've had a frost here

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
fairweather
08 January 2024 13:45:35
GFS 06z London shows a very large spread from the 16th. The predicted cold plunge happens. But, Op and Control run are right at the coldest end and only one pert below them for the period of the next cold spell. From the 17th the mean is -4 to -2C but with such a spread is unlikely to be valid. The best bet would be for the tighter cluster just above the Op to be joined by the very uncertain runs above the mean but there are a lot of them now. This might get the mean down  to -6 to -7C where it has largely been before this run. The Northern contingent is a bit better with the mean being -8C to -5C and a bit less scatter.
All in all personally wouldn't say this is the best run so far based on the ensembles but could be based on the operational, which we are always told to ignore on one run!
S.Essex, 42m ASL
Downpour
08 January 2024 13:51:45

A couple of the high res models were showing very light snow/sleet for much of East Anglia and the SE, but not as organised or heavy as appears to be the case.  Definitely something to keep in mind when seeing charts showing apparently zero precipitation days ahead.

It is also, as expected, colder today than the BBC charts were showing last night: currently barely 2c here, contrary to the predictions of 4-5c.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 



Indeed, Gandalf. We have had a few flurries here today which came as a surprised. Nothing heavy nor settling, but certainly an improvement on the wet dross we have suffered over the festive period. 
Chingford
London E4
147ft
GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
08 January 2024 14:03:58
There is now a Winter weather memories thread for those who want to reminisce about the good old days 🙂
Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
The Dub Version
08 January 2024 14:15:36

There is now a Winter weather memories thread for those who want to reminisce about the good old days 🙂

Originally Posted by: GezM 



During you remember last week when the charts were showing a Siberian nirvana?
Ah those were days.
😂
Berkshire
+1
doctormog
08 January 2024 14:24:59

During you remember last week when the charts were showing a Siberian nirvana?
Ah those were days.
😂

Originally Posted by: The Dub Version 



You might want to get your memory tested.😇
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Hippydave
08 January 2024 14:31:56
Disappointing GFS ens for here as others have said, better the further North you go. 

Not looked through them particularly but I assume it reflects whether the milder push circa 17th Jan wins out in the south (albeit on some of the members that looks temporary before cold returns) or like the Op the milder push fails and it stays broadly cold. 

If I had to guess I'd say GFS is doing a stereotypical thing of overdoing a new signal and will gradually moderate over the next couple of runs, although nothing to say it's not going to firm up on milder air winning out for the South at least. 

It's certainly been a fun little chase for phase 2 of the cold with plenty of little twists and turns which look to continue for a few days more!
Home: Tunbridge Wells
Work: Tonbridge
+1
DPower
08 January 2024 14:49:34
Latest ecm 06 run only goes out to t144 shows a straight northerly and does NOT look likely to develop the spoiler wave crossing west to east from Greenland delaying the cold to the UK. So the ecm now looks in line with what the gfs 06z run had shown. looking forward to some cracking model out put this afternoon and this evening and also for the coming days ahead. It also has the potential to be of a more unstable north to north easterly airflow increasing the snow chances for the UK along with the very cold embedded airflow the UK will be under. 
What a fantastic outlook and in the heart of winter as well.
Zubzero
08 January 2024 14:50:44

Is that a polar low about to form east of Iceland?

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_264_1.png 

Originally Posted by: Tom Oxon 



No polar lows wont be picked up by the models till much closer till the time.

They are so rare I can't remember when thev last one to affect the UK was. 
If one did occur, short range higher res models might pick it up. Or fax charts 

I think even these days they are a nowcast, radar-satellite watch. Not sure if global models would even pick them up?
Gandalf The White
08 January 2024 15:03:42

No polar lows wont be picked up by the models till much closer till the time.

They are so rare I can't remember when thev last one to affect the UK was. 
If one did occur, short range higher res models might pick it up. Or fax charts 

I think even these days they are a nowcast, radar-satellite watch. Not sure if global models would even pick them up?

Originally Posted by: Zubzero 



The high res ones would, since they’re a collection of showers resulting from strong convection, but as you suggest, only at relatively short timescales.

I think I can remember two or three in my lifetime so they’re incredibly rare: you need a deep, very cold Arctic flow with enough of a north/NNE component to get them inland down the eastern side.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Hade Edge Snowman
08 January 2024 15:24:44

No polar lows wont be picked up by the models till much closer till the time.

They are so rare I can't remember when thev last one to affect the UK was. 
If one did occur, short range higher res models might pick it up. Or fax charts 

I think even these days they are a nowcast, radar-satellite watch. Not sure if global models would even pick them up?

Originally Posted by: Zubzero 


Didn't we have a Polar Low from the NNW in early January 2010?
Hade Edge Snowman
West Yorkshire
1060 feet/323 metres ASL
Joe Bloggs
08 January 2024 15:34:10

Didn't we have a Polar Low from the NNW in early January 2010?

Originally Posted by: Hade Edge Snowman 



Pretty sure we had one in Manc in Jan 2015 - wasn’t a spectacular snowfall IIRC. 

Anyway - 12z has started. ICON ok but a bit of a flabby block. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ICOOPEU12_168_1.png 
 

Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
Bolty
08 January 2024 15:43:00

Pretty sure we had one in Manc in Jan 2015 - wasn’t a spectacular snowfall IIRC. 

Anyway - 12z has started. ICON ok but a bit of a flabby block. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ICOOPEU12_168_1.png 
 

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 



Remember it, it was late 29 January 2015. That day actually started off with snow during the morning rush hour in Manchester, before the rest of the day cleared. Later on the snow returned (the Polar low) and brought another dolloping in the evening.

https://youtu.be/mIeeeecLTf8 
Scott
Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.
My weather station 
+1
Rob K
08 January 2024 16:14:11
12Zs rolling out

GEM and GFS both seem to be delaying the cold heading south just a little. Still look solid enough though with 1060+ mb over Greenland (1070+ on GFS - in fact at 120 hours on WZ there is a small 1080mb isobar!)
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
The Dub Version
08 January 2024 16:16:38
Poor met update

"Bands of rain and drizzle spreading south at times"

"very small risk of snow"


 
Berkshire
+1
Rob K
08 January 2024 16:18:19
That's some seriously cold air to the north on the GFS 12Z! The question is how far south can it get before being cut off.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
llamedos
08 January 2024 16:20:49
Earlier reminiscent posts have now been moved to "Winter weather memories and general winter chat" thread.
Better late etc., 
"Life with the Lions"

TWO Moderator
+1
doctormog
08 January 2024 16:22:37

Poor met update

"Bands of rain and drizzle spreading south at times"

"very small risk of snow"


 

Originally Posted by: The Dub Version 



I doubt the Met Office would appreciate selected/edited quoting of their forecast, which states: 

“Cloudy, with patchy light rain or drizzle for central and southern areas, although many areas staying largely dry. Sunny spells and scattered showers, wintry in places, further north, most frequent along coasts. Winds will be light with temperatures likely to be a little below average. Into the start of the following week, it is likely to turn colder as northerly winds begin to develop across of the UK and bring a risk of snow showers, particularly across the north. Further bands of light rain and drizzle may also sink south at times. There is a very small risk of a period of snow across some southern areas for a time. Confidence is low through the rest of this period, but an increased chance of unsettled conditions returning from the west.”

Anyway back on topic and the 12z output looks rather wintry so far (up to 180hr) in the same timescale as before.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
+1
jhall
08 January 2024 16:33:22
If the 12Z T+192 should happen to come off then we'd be in for some fun!
Cranleigh, Surrey
Ally Pally Snowman
08 January 2024 16:34:06
+1
Saint Snow
08 January 2024 16:38:27

JACKPOT!!! Stunning. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=20&model=gfs&var=25&run=12&time=231&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 




A bit more than Fleetwood misses out on that 🤣

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
doctormog
08 January 2024 16:39:36
High risk high reward setting. It all looks a bit messy on the output this evening but it also looks very very snowy in places. With variability between runs in terms of detail at that range I would expect further changes in the coming runs. The air is so cold and unstable in this setup that features look like popping up somewhere, whether that means milder or snowier rea mains very much to be determined.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Ally Pally Snowman
08 January 2024 16:40:37
Bit chilly over the snowfields.🥶🥶🥶🥶🥶🥶🥶🥶🥶🥶🥶🥶🥶🥶🥶🥶

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=20&model=gfs&var=17&time=258&run=12&lid=OP&h=0&tr=1&mv=0#mapref 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
White Meadows
08 January 2024 16:42:39
All eyes on the Scandy high potential at the end of this GFS 12z….

 

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