This morning's GFS op run has one of its trademark "blow up" lows, so I suspect can't be taken too seriously. It has the effect of siphoning up some very mild air, with double figures in the south around day 9.
Nonetheless, watching the descent of the -8 line across the UK, almost but not quite reaching down here, reminds me of playing the 2p slot machines in the Leysdown arcades as a kid. Pull the lever, BAR... BAR... orange. But look, there's another BAR just one away, it was so close. Pull again and you lose, then lose again. As you walk away, disenchanted, you hear the sound of someone else winning the 20p jackpot.
It's what makes events like yesterday's snow so sweet, even if historically it was insignificant.
GEM isn't very exciting down here either, with the -8 line not even getting close before milder SW'lies move in. There's then a glacially slow sinking of colder air, with the 0C isotherm finally making it right at the end. I don't even think that counts as "jam tomorrow".
Perhaps this is a refinement of what we saw yesterday: an initial push of cold air south, which brings some snow to favoured areas in Scotland and northern England. However, a low then spins up, deflecting the cold from the south. As the low moves away, the cold push resumes. This would be an exercise in frustration in the south but quite pleasant if it's snow you're after further north!
It's worth mentioning that although MetO also has a low, it doesn't do much with it (it doesn't engage the jet) and thus the -8 isotherm makes it to the south coast on day 6.
Let's see what the ensembles say.
Originally Posted by: Retron