theweatheroutlook

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Russwirral
09 January 2024 10:50:09
Theme starting to appear of "Battlezones" 

Big chance of a jackpot snowfall for some areas of UK, I say UK, as it could be Geurnsey, it could be Shetland and anywhere in between at the moment, such is the swing run to run, model to Model.

But the theme does seem to be leaning heavily on, Atlantic wants to wake up, just at a time when Polar wants to plunge.



This is all that can be read at the moment, its just pretty pictures until there's proper consistency.

Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 
+4
fairweather
09 January 2024 11:15:14

If I hear ‘high risk high reward’ one more time…

Quick summary:

GFS - awful
UKMO - all the potential stuck at 144hrs yet again 
EC - a Beauty 
 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 


......until you look at the ensemble where the op is on the mild side and the main cold cluster is stronger and colder than yesterday. Until that LP track is resolved on the 15th we will be none the wiser run to run.
S.Essex, 42m ASL
nsrobins
09 January 2024 11:17:36
Experience dictates that when GFS and its suite continue to drift away from a theme over successive runs then the former outcome is increasingly unlikely. 
A 6 days away GFS ‘wobble’ or a trend away - time will tell but, in my very humble opinion, a UK wide cold spell of significant proportions looking less likely.
 
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
+3
fairweather
09 January 2024 11:18:31

It's like watching a very good batsman facing a top class bowling attack on an uneven wicket. You still think he has a good chance of scoring runs, but also it wouldn't be a surprise if his middle stump is sent flying. Regardless, it's all good entertainment and there's no point worrying too much about how it will go.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Great analogy Brian.. 😀
S.Essex, 42m ASL
Saint Snow
09 January 2024 11:24:09

Disappointing 06z GFS op. If it verifies - there won’t be that much of a window for widespread convective snow showers, which would be a shame! 

Was really hoping for a “drier” much colder Arctic spell before the messiness begins, but on this run the heights to our NW dilute before the cold unstable feed properly takes hold. 

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 




Obviously the utopia is for the attack from the SW bringing copious snow to a wide band of the UK, before the GH re-stablishes as the low moves away east, and freezing temps set in (for a month) with a foot of snow lying IMBY 🤩, followed by convective snow showers from the NW/N/NE and a couple of snow-laden polar features sinking south.

The weather gods really should hand over scriptwriting duties to me. I can do a far better job.

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
+3
Whiteout
09 January 2024 11:25:29

Experience dictates that when GFS and its suite continue to drift away from a theme over successive runs then the former outcome is increasingly unlikely. 
A 6 days away GFS ‘wobble’ or a trend away - time will tell but, in my very humble opinion, a UK wide cold spell of significant proportions looking less likely.
 

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 



Very much on the mild side of the ens though Neil...
Home/Work - Dartmoor
240m/785 ft asl
Joe Bloggs
09 January 2024 11:26:57

Experience dictates that when GFS and its suite continue to drift away from a theme over successive runs then the former outcome is increasingly unlikely. 
A 6 days away GFS ‘wobble’ or a trend away - time will tell but, in my very humble opinion, a UK wide cold spell of significant proportions looking less likely.
 

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 



Agreed, my first thought when looking at the 06z GFS - was those two swear words “cold zonality”.

Yes I am exaggerating , obviously - but a disappointment compared to other runs. 

Still, plenty of time for change. 

Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
fairweather
09 January 2024 11:27:27

I think this was the case, which I was agreeing with up until the weekend when the ole ‘jam’ flavour crept back in. We originally had great CMA for Greenland high influenced northerly on 13th, then it started slipping… 14th, 15th… seems to keep getting delayed and diluted. But this isn’t anything unusual and should be far less surprising.
 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 


I've been following all of the ensembles closely, saving some to look back at. I can assure you the turning point to uncertainty of the detail has always been the 15th or very close to it. The cold has also always been programmed from that date as has the uncertainty around its extent. Like I said before, a lot depends on that LP. If you want a trend is probably for less settled and more snowy, especially in the north but the chances of deep snow are also higher than they were in the south because earlier on it was generally settled and dry after the northerly set in. 😀
S.Essex, 42m ASL
fairweather
09 January 2024 11:33:51

To borrow the new phrase, “people are entitled to their own opinion, they’re not entitled to their own facts.”

🙂

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


This is my favourite phrase of recent times. it perfectly sums up how I feel about some of the numbskull mainly political opinions thrown at me these days! Back to the models, from my ensemble viewpoint all looks pretty good really. Worst case scenario - most interesting charts for years, best case -lots of snow!
S.Essex, 42m ASL
fairweather
09 January 2024 11:42:08

Yes, the way it's looking is that the Midlands will be the sweet spot... while for us further south, we'll just get flooded out!

The 6z op has 30 hours of continuous rainfall across southern England, from midnight on Tuesday next week through to 6AM on Thursday.

Originally Posted by: Retron 


We have had a run of two or three op runs that have turned out on the mild end. If you based your above statement on the mean falling with the higher values dropping back down your conclusion might be 30 hours of continuous snow which might be too much even for many on here 😀
Personally I think the sweet spot is very much up for grabs while of course I realise the default position is always the M4 corridor!
S.Essex, 42m ASL
Joe Bloggs
09 January 2024 11:45:32

Experience dictates that when GFS and its suite continue to drift away from a theme over successive runs then the former outcome is increasingly unlikely. 
A 6 days away GFS ‘wobble’ or a trend away - time will tell but, in my very humble opinion, a UK wide cold spell of significant proportions looking less likely.
 

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 



Edit - I’m talking crap 

Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
+1
fairweather
09 January 2024 11:46:11

Experience dictates that when GFS and its suite continue to drift away from a theme over successive runs then the former outcome is increasingly unlikely. 
A 6 days away GFS ‘wobble’ or a trend away - time will tell but, in my very humble opinion, a UK wide cold spell of significant proportions looking less likely.
 

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


Like I keep saying, go back to the last three GFS ensembles and there is no slippage. And that is ignoring other models. But there has been on the last three op runs if they are more meaningful, just saying. 🙂
S.Essex, 42m ASL
ballamar
09 January 2024 11:46:36
Definitely a step away further for the south but still enough in the ENS for a little bit of hope in the way of Scandi high. But this chase of a N/NE currently looks dead - trend is clearly heading in wrong direction 
fairweather
09 January 2024 11:48:21

Obviously the utopia is for the attack from the SW bringing copious snow to a wide band of the UK, before the GH re-stablishes as the low moves away east, and freezing temps set in (for a month) with a foot of snow lying IMBY 🤩, followed by convective snow showers from the NW/N/NE and a couple of snow-laden polar features sinking south.

The weather gods really should hand over scriptwriting duties to me. I can do a far better job.

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


😂
S.Essex, 42m ASL
idj20
09 January 2024 11:49:51
Has a January 1984 look about it, Midlands being at the sweet spot for long lasting transient snow while Southern England get to have yet more rain and wind. 
Folkestone Harbour. 
fairweather
09 January 2024 11:58:49
On the subject  of GFS - the ensemble mean was pretty much spot on for accuracy from a week out for where the 850's would end up for this current spell. There were different op runs though and the weather was quite different to what we expected in the South which shows the model and the weather don't always tie up. 😀
S.Essex, 42m ASL
Boardshark
09 January 2024 12:02:20
Don't worry.  We won't get it here in the Midlands.  Always seems to go further east or hits Wales leaving us in no mans land.

That being said currently looks like we are in the firing line, but a long way to go.
 
449ft Sutton Coldfield, West MIdlands
+1
Retron
09 January 2024 12:03:04

On the subject  of GFS - the ensemble mean was pretty much spot on for accuracy from a week out for where the 850's would end up for this current spell. There were different op runs though and the weather was quite different to what we expected in the South which shows the model and the weather don't always tie up. 😀

Originally Posted by: fairweather 


I can't agree there - it didn't show -10s as the mean until less than a day out, consistently modelling the 850s a couple to a few degrees higher than they would be.

The reason why I thought we'd see -10 down here, incidentally, is because the models always underestimate the depth of cold in an easterly + upper cold pool scenario. We don't get to see it very often - 2018 was the last time - but it was the same then. We ended up with -14s, but that was only picked up at the last minute, the mean was -10 to 12 in the runs preceding it. It also happened in the Feb 2005 easterly.

 
Leysdown, north Kent
White Meadows
09 January 2024 12:36:33
06z ensembles show a fairly swift return to average after a brief northerly incursion:

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?model=gfs&lid=ENS&var=2&bw=1&geoid=49069 
 
soperman
09 January 2024 13:01:44
We will need to wait until the weekend for any strong steer either way but hopefully the Model Watch will be entertaining for a while.
We have had snow falling (not laying) in Brixham for the first time since we moved here in 2021 but we are travelling back to the Chilterns next Thursday so very keen to watch the developments.
nsrobins
09 January 2024 13:05:17
Well the very latest UKM written extended might steady the nerves for coldies and is a clear signal in favour of there own model streams and a slap in the face of what GFS and its suite have been trending to.
This story has legs in it yet it seems.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Chunky Pea
09 January 2024 13:06:54

06z ensembles show a fairly swift return to average after a brief northerly incursion:

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?model=gfs&lid=ENS&var=2&bw=1&geoid=49069 
 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 



A lot of 'scatter' appearing there alright, though the broader trend still looks cool. 
 
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Gandalf The White
09 January 2024 13:13:14

06z ensembles show a fairly swift return to average after a brief northerly incursion:

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?model=gfs&lid=ENS&var=2&bw=1&geoid=49069 
 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 



Yes, for the south, pretty much the way the GFS ensemble suite has been trending for the last 36-48 hours. The further north you go the more diluted and delayed the signal for a return to normality.

But as always, we are focusing overly on one model. The case for a battleground somewhere over the UK seems quite strong but 400-500 miles in global modelling terms is nothing, but at the same time it’s everything depending on where you live across that distance.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


+1
Taylor1740
09 January 2024 13:22:30

Well the very latest UKM written extended might steady the nerves for coldies and is a clear signal in favour of there own model streams and a slap in the face of what GFS and its suite have been trending to.
This story has legs in it yet it seems.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


yes, favours it staying cold into early Feb with high pressure to the NW.
NW Leeds - 150m amsl
The Dub Version
09 January 2024 13:26:21

Well the very latest UKM written extended might steady the nerves for coldies and is a clear signal in favour of there own model streams and a slap in the face of what GFS and its suite have been trending to.
This story has legs in it yet it seems.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 



Those extended's are lagged by 24hrs. Based on yesterdays runs.

Premium customers get the correct up-to-date update.

And we know "disruption" could be an icy pavement or a leaf on the line these days with a amber warning.
Berkshire

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