UKMO is a bit questionable in the end IMO - the LP in the southern Atlantic can't get through France due to the collapsing lobe of HP, so you've got mild air pulled up from the south riding up the HP lobe hitting colder air which would presumably kick off LP development and likely lead to milder air being pulled over a chunk of the UK unless we get lucky and the HP slinking into France runs through quickly or if a renewed cold push has enough grunt in it.
I think the 00z MOGREPS had a dip circa 15th as cold air dug in and then a rise after, maybe reflecting that kind of setup. The 6z set have less of a rise so maybe suggesting any mild push is largely blocked off by renewed cold air moving south? I guess wait and see what the 12z set shows.
Whatever way you look at it it's a lot better than the GFS though!
GEM is 'messy' which might be good for some, although down here it looks transient at best. It's good to see it's does go cold again in the end though, rather than following GFS with a raging atlantic and long fetch south westerlies.
Edit: have had another look at UKMO run and can't make my mind up if it's decent or potentially iffy (cold though). That LP may just stall and a further cold push occur and little mild air makes it. Or it might spin up etc.
Edited by user
09 January 2024 17:18:41
|
Reason: Not specified
Home: Tunbridge Wells
Work: Tonbridge