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doctormog
09 January 2024 18:42:23

Energy driving the Arctic air mass south steadily.  Looks fine at T+144: -6c 850s reach London, -11 for northern Scotland.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 



Yes it looks a bit chilly up to 192 hr.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
squish
09 January 2024 18:46:09
ECM and JMA very similar up to 192.

JMA went off on one yesterday but has come back to the general consensus ( excepting the GFS op)

There is always a danger in lows winding up to much in the unstable flow ( Feb 2009 comes to mind and there are some striking synoptic similarities) . However that spell gave a foot of snow here and a red warning.

 
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
Hippydave
09 January 2024 18:48:08

Ecm looks nice and snowy by 192h. Very good

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



Yup, I reckon that's not far off the perfect evolution from the T168 position. 850s around -4 at their highest, so just a case of other parameters as to if it's all snow or rain/sleet for the coastal strip etc. although to my untrained eye it looks snowy. 

A quick look at the 500 hPA chart shows a reasonably robust HP over Greenland too. 
Home: Tunbridge Wells
Work: Tonbridge
Gandalf The White
09 January 2024 18:48:31

Yes it looks a bit chilly up to 192 hr.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 



Pretty much as signalled for several days, with very cold air at your end of the country and a battleground zone somewhere down south. The 12z at T+192 puts that zone in the Channel, a mere 200 miles further south that the GFS 12z.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Gandalf The White
09 January 2024 18:50:49
Potential LP encroaching from the SW to end the run, into established Arctic air
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


squish
09 January 2024 18:52:45
The ECM +216 charts are a bit different between WZ and Meteociel in showing the low to the SW ?
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
CField
09 January 2024 18:59:57
The south is due a big snowstorm from the South West..need that low just to crash into Biscay before moving NE ...keep the UK in the NW cold side of the low like 1881...been some great ones in the past 1881,  March 1893, Dec 1908, 62,63 47, 79, Jan 82...
Favourite snowstorm
Famous channel low
Dec 31st 1978
Hastings East Sussex
Foot of level snow severe drifting
Next day max temp -4 degrees Celsius
Ally Pally Snowman
09 January 2024 19:09:38
Imby snow from todays ecm 0z 20cm, ecm 12z 4cm. The North gets the real dumping on the 12z

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/england/snow-depth-in/20240119-1200z.html#tab-dates-date 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
White Meadows
09 January 2024 19:09:45

The south is due a big snowstorm from the South West..need that low just to crash into Biscay before moving NE ...keep the UK in the NW cold side of the low like 1881...been some great ones in the past 1881,  March 1893, Dec 1908, 62,63 47, 79, Jan 82...

Originally Posted by: CField 


Fun Fact: the snowstorm of 1881 brought considerable falls to East Sussex, including a 10ft drift in Lewes. As the weight amounted high up on the hill, it avalanched tens of meters below onto the local pub killing several punters and staff. The pub is still there, The Snowdrop Inn.

Back to the modern real winter, I don’t understand how EC can look so good yet GFS so poor for the south this evening. Who will win?

Edit: correction, it was 1836
 
Saint Snow
09 January 2024 19:12:36
GEM is a really snowy run. Atlantic low skids through across the south, bringing snow up to around Lancs/Yorks, then a secondary low spinning off it sinks southeastwards, bringing another bout of snow, before a cold N'ly flow.

Manic!

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
jhall
09 January 2024 19:15:02

Fun Fact: the snowstorm of 1881 brought considerable falls to East Sussex, including a 10ft drift in Lewes. As the weight amounted high up on the hill, it avalanched tens of meters below onto the local pub killing several punters and staff. The pub is still there, The Snowdrop Inn.

Back to the modern real winter, I don’t understand how EC can look so good yet GFS so poor for the south this evening. Who will win?
 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 



The Lewes avalanche wasn't from the 1881 snowstorm but from the one in December, 1836. Gavin covered it in one of his videos on Youtube just a week or two ago - well worth watching.
Cranleigh, Surrey
Polar Low
09 January 2024 19:18:39

Potential LP encroaching from the SW to end the run, into established Arctic air

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 



First one should just about be ok, Blizzard conditions for a time south, 2 Low Snow to rain south very good run for North.
Small short wave at 168 delays cold to south a little which doesn’t help but we get away with it.
looks primed for cold returning later on with possibly prolonged cold locked in once again

http://wxcharts.com/?panel=default&model=ecmwf,ecmwf,ecmwf,ecmwf®ion=europe&chart=overview,850temp,wind10mkph,snowdepth&run=12&step=186&plottype=10&lat=51.500&lon=-0.250&skewtstep=0 

 
Ally Pally Snowman
09 January 2024 19:55:37
Excellent ECM 12z means all the way . 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
+1
DPower
09 January 2024 19:57:26
Very good run from the ecm. Lows running into the cold block way to far out to discuss at that range. looking at lower strat and upper trop profiles tells me the ecm has got this. Of course I could be wrong but if the gfs is wrong I think it may take a couple of days yet to work it out.
potential for a very interesting week next week if things work in our favour for once.
ballamar
09 January 2024 20:08:20
Biggest concern in the south will be the dew points just hope we can get some low ones in place - coastal regions will usually suffer
Heavy Weather 2013
09 January 2024 20:11:07
Angle of attack will also be important - will need to have colder dew points off the continent in the south.

We are high risk / high reward status in the south, and to be honest better that that a drive N/NW.
Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Joe Bloggs
09 January 2024 20:24:20

Excellent ECM 12z means all the way . 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



Postage stamps T+144 

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/78/16419/gens_panelddx5.php.png 

T+168

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/61/19029/gens_panelnmw2.php.png 

T+192

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/15/20002/gens_panelofr6.php.png 

You can certainly see why the Met Office are concerned about disruptive snow. As you’d expect there are a few spoiler members amongst the EPS but the majority are cold and wintry, some markedly so. 

 

Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
+1
ballamar
09 January 2024 20:31:53
At the moment somewhere is going to potentially have a historic snowfall ! Get on the right side of a triple point and bingo
jhall
09 January 2024 20:50:13
I see that at T+240 the ECM OP is one of the mildest members of the ensemble for London, with the mean 850mb temperature being -3.3C. I especially like the CTRL, which keeps it cold out to about Day 14 - though I suppose that could mean less snow (I haven't checked its actual charts). 
Cranleigh, Surrey
Chunky Pea
09 January 2024 20:57:50
EC mean from 192hr onwards looks very advective, esp for the northern half of both UK and Ireland. 
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
White Meadows
09 January 2024 21:19:41
Deep Dive interesting today. Basically some very heavy rain (yet again) probable for the south next week. Much drier further north. 

Alex Deakin with the 10 day trend video tomorrow. Should be a little more insightful re next week.
 
doctormog
09 January 2024 21:24:04
This is the Deep Dive link below and I would strongly recommend that people watch it and draw their own conclusions: https://youtu.be/toG_dTpPcJI?si=oGNcjFjaATVguG8a 
 
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
+4
Gandalf The White
09 January 2024 21:30:22

Deep Dive interesting today. Basically some very heavy rain (yet again) probable for the south next week. Much drier further north. 

Alex Deakin with the 10 day trend video tomorrow. Should be a little more insightful re next week.
 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 



Which Deep Dive was that?  Today’s one said nothing like that. Were you taking in what was said or is this just more trolling?  Pretty poor either way, since some guest viewers might believe what you are suggesting.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


+1
White Meadows
09 January 2024 21:31:46
Rainfall totals spiking once again for London in this evenings output, from early- midweek next week. This is the last thing we need down here. There are many, many areas still with standing water and nowhere for it to drain with such saturated ground. 
EC looks wetter than GFS currently. 
 
White Meadows
09 January 2024 21:33:20

Which Deep Dive was that?  Today’s one said nothing like that. Were you taking in what was said or is this just more trolling?  Pretty poor either way, since some guest viewers might believe what you are suggesting.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


No Peter. There’s a clear section showing Plymouth temperature rising in tandem with precipitation. It’s nothing to get upset about, unless you live in already flooded areas in the south of course.
 
+2

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