Model Output thread: 6th January onwards· Page 22

Gandalf The White
Advanced Member

09 January 2024 21:36:52

No Peter. There’s a clear section showing Plymouth temperature rising in tandem with precipitation. It’s nothing to get upset about, unless you live in already flooded areas in the south of course.

Originally Posted by: White Meadows

No, WM, that doesn’t cut it, since you didn’t specify a location in your post. If you’re now backtracking and saying milder in the south-west then that would at least be closer to the message from the Deep Dive.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E

White Meadows
Advanced Member

09 January 2024 21:41:39

#527

No, WM, that doesn’t cut it, since you didn’t specify a location in your post. If you’re now backtracking and saying milder in the south-west then that would at least be closer to the message from the Deep Dive.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White

I’m glad we’re singing from the same hymn sheet 😇

doctormog
Advanced Member

09 January 2024 21:42:27

#528

No Peter. There’s a clear section showing Plymouth temperature rising in tandem with precipitation. It’s nothing to get upset about, unless you live in already flooded areas in the south of course.

Originally Posted by: White Meadows

Did they mention anything else? Anything about elsewhere or the overall prospects for the UK in the next ten days or indeed for the rest of the winter or was it a forecast for rain in the southwest that lasted over 29 minutes?

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS)

Heavy Weather 2013
Advanced Member

09 January 2024 21:42:39

#529

Deep Dive interesting today. Basically some very heavy rain (yet again) probable for the south next week. Much drier further north.

Alex Deakin with the 10 day trend video tomorrow. Should be a little more insightful re next week.

Originally Posted by: White Meadows

It said the SW and even then highlighted the significant uncertainty even with places like Plymouth. These feels like trolling and is not useful. I watched 20 minutes and this statement is a poor reflection on what it was showing.

Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.

+2

Lionel Hutz
Advanced Member

09 January 2024 21:43:33

#530

This is the Deep Dive link below and I would strongly recommend that people watch it and draw their own conclusions: https://youtu.be/toG_dTpPcJI?si=oGNcjFjaATVguG8a

Originally Posted by: doctormog

Very interesting, thanks for posting. Obviously still uncertain given the time frame but shows the possibilities. It puts the occasional wobbles that we have on here in perspective.

Lionel Hutz
Nr.Waterford , S E Ireland
68m ASL

+2

Chunky Pea
Advanced Member

09 January 2024 21:44:50

#531

No, WM, that doesn’t cut it, since you didn’t specify a location in your post. If you’re now backtracking and saying milder in the south-west then that would at least be closer to the message from the Deep Dive.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White

Does it really matter?

Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022

+1

doctormog
Advanced Member

09 January 2024 21:45:40

#532

It said the SW and even then highlighted the significant uncertainty even with places like Plymouth. These feels like trolling and is not useful. I watched 20 minutes and this statement is a poor reflection on what it was showing.

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013

Absolutely, and you have given context to WM’s comments which were indeed part of the forecast, along with the uncertainty you mention. Yet it was only a tiny part of the forecast. As you say a poor reflection. I’m sure it wasn’t intentional.

On a more on topic theme the 18z GFS op run is starting to come out. Will it go for the less cold but potentially very snowy then milder theme again this time or will it be more in line with the other output? We will find out soon I guess!

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS)

White Meadows
Advanced Member

09 January 2024 21:46:00

#533

Very uncertain indeed. I was merely highlighting the prospects of possible further flooding in the south, which believe it or not is more important to some people than falling snow, which can of course be a flooding threat itself.

+1

pdazz
Newbie

09 January 2024 22:00:18

#534

yes, I watched this and was surprised to see the probability % of the next 3 months being Avg/Mild/Cold than normal.........an interesting watch!

This is the Deep Dive link below and I would strongly recommend that people watch it and draw their own conclusions: https://youtu.be/toG_dTpPcJI?si=oGNcjFjaATVguG8a

Originally Posted by: doctormog

+2

pdazz
Newbie

09 January 2024 22:08:59

#535

Interesting times ahead, slightly milder temps than recently over the next few days , but then another cold shot from the North this time (not that this Easterly was that cold, but hey, that'll do me!) could we be locked in for a protracted cold period from around 15th? Atlantic looking sleepy and cold spell forecast ties in well with Met Office long range update since mid December ( what do they know that we don't 😂)

scillydave
Advanced Member

09 January 2024 22:19:32

#536

Deep Dive interesting today. Basically some very heavy rain (yet again) probable for the south next week. Much drier further north.

Alex Deakin with the 10 day trend video tomorrow. Should be a little more insightful re next week.

Originally Posted by: White Meadows

No mention at all of 'very heavy rain' in the deep dive.

There was a discussion about the possibility of low pressure systems pushing into the South West / South of the country and Plymouth was given as an example of where this might occur. The presenters were at pains to point out that this precipitation, if it occurs, could be rain, sleet or snow.

Currently living at roughly 65m asl North of Cowbridge in the Vale of Glamorgan.

Formerly of, Birdlip, highest village in the Cotswolds and snow heaven in winter; Hawkinge in Kent - roof of the South downs and Isles of Scilly, paradise in the UK.

+2

Joe Bloggs
Advanced Member

09 January 2024 22:20:17

#537

GFS continues to water down the Greenland heights earlier than the other models, limiting the CAA and convective snow potential , before it gets messier from the SW.

So it’s GFS vs. the Euros.

Who knows.

Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL

ballamar
Advanced Member

09 January 2024 22:23:54

#538

GFS continues to water down the Greenland heights earlier than the other models, limiting the CAA and convective snow potential , before it gets messier from the SW.

So it’s GFS vs. the Euros.

Who knows.

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs

was hoping that low could slide SW from 186

+1

doctormog
Advanced Member

09 January 2024 22:26:11

#539

GFS continues to water down the Greenland heights earlier than the other models, limiting the CAA and convective snow potential , before it gets messier from the SW.

So it’s GFS vs. the Euros.

Who knows.

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs

If the GFS is going to be right…

will it be this GFS: https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU00_198_1.png

Or this GFS? https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU18_180_1.png

That is the same time point from the same model on two runs on the same day. If the 00z op run was correct the 18z op run is nonsense or vice versa.

Do we pick one isolated op run from one model that changes markedly every 6 hrs or do we look at the cross-model and ensemble picture? If we accept the 18z op picture from the GFS op run we admit that for whatever reason the 00z run was incredibly unreliable.

I think I will reserve judgement until we see the (no doubt wide) range of options from the 18z GEFS suite.

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS)

Russwirral
Advanced Member

09 January 2024 22:30:11

#540

When charts start looking like this, it usually means a GH is changing position to a Scandi high...

I suspect the GH is no more from tomorrow.

Very confused and messy synoptics.

Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history

Joe Bloggs
Advanced Member

09 January 2024 22:30:58

#541

If the GFS is going to be right…

will it be this GFS: https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU00_198_1.png

Or this GFS? https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU18_180_1.png

That is the same time point from the same model on two runs on the same day. If the 00z op run was correct the 18z op run is nonsense or vice versa.

Do we pick one isolated op run from one model that changes markedly every 6 hrs or do we look at the cross-model and ensemble picture? If we accept the 18z op picture from the GFS op run we admit that for whatever reason the 00z run was incredibly unreliable.

I think I will reserve judgement until we see the (no doubt wide) range of options from the 18z GEFS suite.

Originally Posted by: doctormog

Waiting for the ensemble suite is sensible, of course.

The op is still fairly wintry regardless.

Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL

doctormog
Advanced Member

09 January 2024 22:34:05

#542

Waiting for the ensemble suite is sensible, of course.

The op is still fairly wintry regardless.

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs

Yes it is you’re right. The problem is it’s not even consistent with its own recent output nevermind the other models. In short it (the GFS operational run) cannot be right on this run without being wrong in its previous runs. If it is right it will show the same outcome for every run from now on (give or take minor details) and I think we know the likelihood of that.

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS)

+1

Joe Bloggs
Advanced Member

09 January 2024 22:37:10

#543

Yes it is you’re right. The problem is it’s not even consistent with its own recent output nevermind the other models. In short it (the GFS operational run) cannot be right on this run without being wrong in its previous runs. If it is right it will show the same outcome for every run from now on (give or take minor details) and I think we know the likelihood of that.

Originally Posted by: doctormog

Agreed.

Hopefully the ECM/EPS is closer to the mark. 👍

Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL

White Meadows
Advanced Member

09 January 2024 22:41:43

#544

When charts start looking like this, it usually means a GH is changing position to a Scandi high...

I suspect the GH is no more from tomorrow.

Very confused and messy synoptics.

Originally Posted by: Russwirral

we can but dream….