theweatheroutlook

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Rob K
10 January 2024 17:31:42
Daytime highs of -5C across the Midlands on the 19t according to GFS. A hundred miles or so of adjustment south will do the trick please.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Retron
10 January 2024 17:34:44
Far more scatter in the 12z GEFS short ensembles for London, FWIW - after a relatively tight cluster in the 6z. It'd be nice to get this pinned down one way or the other!
Leysdown, north Kent
nsrobins
10 January 2024 17:35:47
If the 12Z GFS OP isn't one of the mildest options at 180hrs, if not the mildest (London) I’ll eat my rose-tinted spectacles in a Jam tomorrow sandwich.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
doctormog
10 January 2024 17:40:15

If the 12Z GFS OP isn't one of the mildest options at 180hrs, if not the mildest (London) I’ll eat my rose-tinted spectacles in a Jam tomorrow sandwich.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 



I think your hat is safe.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
ballamar
10 January 2024 17:40:20
GEFS flipping quite wildly at the moment - goes to show the uncertainty. See what ECM throws out - no middle ground at the moment!
White Meadows
10 January 2024 17:44:24
Another massive Scandy HP at the end. That’s 3 or 4 runs on the trot now.
New trend emerging. 
 
Retron
10 January 2024 17:48:10

GEFS flipping quite wildly at the moment - goes to show the uncertainty. See what ECM throws out - no middle ground at the moment!

Originally Posted by: ballamar 


Here's an interesting chart from the ECM's 0z run - apparently the red lines show the various positioning of the warm front next Wednesday, one line per ensemble member! Can't say I've seen that sort of chart before, normally the spaghetti plots are for 850s, or 500hPa heights or similar.

It's from the MetO 10-day trend video, the one where Alex Deakin mentions that there could be some "dumps" for Scotland!

The link for that is on the Media thread if you've not already seen it.

https://ukwct.org.uk/weather/warmfront.jpg
UserPostedImage 
Leysdown, north Kent
+3
Ally Pally Snowman
10 January 2024 17:49:58

Another massive Scandy HP at the end. That’s 3 or 4 runs on the trot now.
New trend emerging. 
 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 



We know GFS can be very good at spotting pattern changes way out. So 4 Ops in a row is a great sign.
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Retron
10 January 2024 17:52:22
...and the MetO's view of the most likely snow area, taking all the models and their ensembles into consideration? Along the M4 corridor! (And also here, but I have to admit that sounds dodgy to me...)

https://ukwct.org.uk/weather/snowens.jpg 
UserPostedImage
Leysdown, north Kent
+1
ballamar
10 January 2024 17:55:57

...and the MetO's view of the most likely snow area, taking all the models and their ensembles into consideration? Along the M4 corridor! (And also here, but I have to admit that sounds dodgy to me...)

https://ukwct.org.uk/weather/snowens.jpg 
UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Retron 


living where we do close to the coast this shocks me as well - perhaps it will come off this time
Rob K
10 January 2024 18:03:56

Here's an interesting chart from the ECM's 0z run - apparently the red lines show the various positioning of the warm front next Wednesday, one line per ensemble member! Can't say I've seen that sort of chart before, normally the spaghetti plots are for 850s, or 500hPa heights or similar.

It's from the MetO 10-day trend video, the one where Alex Deakin mentions that there could be some "dumps" for Scotland!

The link for that is on the Media thread if you've not already seen it.

https://ukwct.org.uk/weather/warmfront.jpg
UserPostedImage 

Originally Posted by: Retron 



For all that we moan about the models, the fact that we can even say that there is going to be a front somewhere in our vicinity in a whole week's time is actually pretty remarkable when you think about how far the atmosphere moves in a week.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
+2
MRayner
10 January 2024 18:06:59

Not long before the fax charts come into range....

Originally Posted by: Whiteout 



Good point, they tend to be the guide of what’s really going to happen !!
Location Whisky 🥃 country, Cragganmore ,Moray, 440 AMSL
Retron
10 January 2024 18:07:28

For all that we moan about the models, the fact that we can even say that there is going to be a front somewhere in our vicinity in a whole week's time is actually pretty remarkable when you think about how far the atmosphere moves in a week.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


It does almost seem like magic to me - a bit like when you know there are gales coming in several days' time, when the low responsible is still a tiny wave over the Midwest! (That happened with the last storm system, and the forecasts were pretty good for that).

It's also nice to get a glimpse of some of the extra stuff that's for internal use only at the MetO. I had no idea they even had frontal charts like that, it's impressive to see!
Leysdown, north Kent
+1
fullybhoy
10 January 2024 18:20:58
 I kinda echo saint’s fears about this part of Scotland……….far too far north obviously for these potential low pressure systems pushing in, and as usual too sheltered for anything else coming from the north……..
Aldo
Glasgow 165m/asl
 
Ally Pally Snowman
10 January 2024 18:30:50
Ecm looks like it's going down the high impact snow route at 144h
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
ballamar
10 January 2024 18:33:40
Pivotal moment ECM at 144hrs

shite for the south at 168!
Rob K
10 January 2024 18:36:02

Ecm looks like it's going down the high impact snow route at 144h

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



Pushing it quite a long way north - certainly at the northern end of the Met's range.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Rob K
10 January 2024 18:40:32
Problem with the ECM is that at T144 it doesn't even have cold air across the country - only -3 to -4C, compared to the GFS's -6 to -8C.

So it looks like rain a very long way north to me. The 0C isotherm is level with the Wash at T168, but the -5C isotherm is way up on the Scottish border.

GFS at this point has the 0C line in a similar place but a much tighter gradient, with -5C air only a short distance to the north.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Ally Pally Snowman
10 January 2024 18:45:25
Although I'm in the sweetspot  it's very lacklustre.  Next!

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/england/snow-depth-in/20240118-0000z.html#tab-dates-date 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
ballamar
10 January 2024 18:45:34
Need the initial northerly to be cleaner and stronger or it will end up a complete non event for anywhere south of Scotland! Might have to keep an eye on more runs
Ally Pally Snowman
10 January 2024 18:58:05
Ecm is a stinker first one in awhile. Let's hope its one for the bin.
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Chunky Pea
10 January 2024 19:01:46

Ecm is a stinker first one in awhile. Let's hope its one for the bin.
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



Is this the sort of run that Beast would call 'Pete Tong'? 
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Rob K
10 January 2024 19:03:11
Very slack and generally uninspiring ECM. Not going to worry about that unless it becomes a trend. What we don't want to see is the initial northerly push getting weakened like that.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Ally Pally Snowman
10 January 2024 19:08:40

Is this the sort of run that Beast would call 'Pete Tong'? 

Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 



After such good day thought he wasn't turning up. But you never know.
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
doctormog
10 January 2024 19:12:56
Given the in-depth Met Office analysis and all the model output available to us, including and especially the ensemble data, be very wary of reading too much into any individual operational run. Next week still looks really messy and uncertain with the potential for excitement, disappointment, rain, snow and some serious levels of cold all possible.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
+4

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