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Gandalf The White
11 January 2024 13:39:19

ATM happy with drier for a change but it's incredible frustrating to see Met Office outlooks/BBC etc saying significant disruptive snow along with models showing southern UK and or many parts England plastered in snow yet only for many of us not to see a single flake or even worse for snow to miss the UK altogether and go southwards, I am not saying this will happen but since the BFTE 2018 this has offen been the case....
await the 12z run..

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 



The 06z MOGREPS run has trended slightly colder with just 2-3 runs going milder for London later next week

850hPa temps:
https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/mogreps_display.php?x=0&y=0&run=6&ville=Londres&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&runpara=0&col=0&type=0&ext=0 

2m temps:
https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/mogreps_display.php?x=0&y=0&run=6&ville=Londres&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&runpara=0&type=1&ext=0 

The mean has snow on the ground from late on 17th, albeit not much.

Even down in your neck of the woods the cold holds on and there's some snow about.

 
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


picturesareme
11 January 2024 13:56:38

The 06z MOGREPS run has trended slightly colder with just 2-3 runs going milder for London later next week

850hPa temps:
https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/mogreps_display.php?x=0&y=0&run=6&ville=Londres&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&runpara=0&col=0&type=0&ext=0 

2m temps:
https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/mogreps_display.php?x=0&y=0&run=6&ville=Londres&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&runpara=0&type=1&ext=0 

The mean has snow on the ground from late on 17th, albeit not much.

Even down in your neck of the woods the cold holds on and there's some snow about.

 

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 



These are only out to the 19th and it's around the 21st that both GFS & ECMWF have been showing a rapid warm up for several days now. Afterwards not even a hint of a frost with double digit day highs returning with plenty of rain.
Gandalf The White
11 January 2024 14:12:34

These are only out to the 19th and it's around the 21st that both GFS & ECMWF have been showing a rapid warm up for several days now. Afterwards not even a hint of a frost with double digit day highs returning with plenty of rain.

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 



I was focussing on the uncertainties around developments from the middle of next week.  

Beyond that is little more than guesswork; it might be a return to a mobile pattern or it might not. Against the backdrop of the seasonal indicators the odds are against a mobile pattern becoming established.  That doesn’t mean it won’t happen, but I’ll wait until it comes into a more reliable timeframe.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


picturesareme
11 January 2024 14:15:17

I was focussing on the uncertainties around developments from the middle of next week.  

Beyond that is little more than guesswork; it might be a return to a mobile pattern or it might not. Against the backdrop of the seasonal indicators the odds are against a mobile pattern becoming established.  That doesn’t mean it won’t happen, but I’ll wait until it comes into a more reliable timeframe.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 



Sorry my misunderstanding. I thought tally was talking about the same as nsrobins .
Hippydave
11 January 2024 14:29:24

👍As far as I can see, not that many runs are currently showing snow in the south. As you say, that shows precipitation type, so it is reasonable to assume that the number of runs going for accumulating snow is even lower. I'm not sure if this update is reasonably consistent with other recent ones or not. However, there was a graphic doing the rounds yesterday (either on here or Twitter I'm not sure which - I've been configuring and installing software on new PC since yesterday so haven't been focused on discussions) purportedlyfrom the UK Met which showed a high risk of disruptive snow in southern and central Britain. I wonder what that was based on.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 



I use this site which does have a 24hr snow graph for ECM:-

https://weather.us/forecast/2639022-royal-tunbridge-wells/ensemble/euro/snow-precipitation-24h 

You can change the location as required obviously!

I'd be delighted if the op view from earlier was correct but suspect it wont be😄

I don't tend to look at the snow one all that much although have been a bit more for the projected set up just because I'm more familiar with convective snow than frontal where the required 850s are less certain. 

Edit: should have said there's a depth one in the menu options too:-

https://weather.us/forecast/2639022-royal-tunbridge-wells/ensemble/euro/snow 
Home: Tunbridge Wells
Work: Tonbridge
Whiteout
11 January 2024 14:35:48
*cough* no backing down by the met for midweek next week, via updated forecast - currently on App only  - and press release, longer term possibly milder by next weekend....

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press-office/news/weather-and-climate/2024/disruptive-snow-possible-next-week 
Home/Work - Dartmoor
240m/785 ft asl
Downpour
11 January 2024 14:35:49

These are only out to the 19th and it's around the 21st that both GFS & ECMWF have been showing a rapid warm up for several days now. Afterwards not even a hint of a frost with double digit day highs returning with plenty of rain.

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 



Yes this is the great fear. The ground is absolutely saturated yet a lot of FI charts want to bring in yet another sodden Atlantic regime. A long way off, but we know that wet in FI is far more likely to verify than cold/dry in FI despite the eternal (cockeyed?) optimism of some members on here. 
Chingford
London E4
147ft
Whiteout
11 January 2024 14:39:24
Tuesday 16 Jan - Thursday 25 Jan

Cold with wintry showers affecting northwestern coasts, with showers moving inland especially in the north, clearer in the south. Potential for more persistent snow through Tuesday in the northwest. There is risk of unsettled weather pushing in from the south through midweek, potentially leading to areas of snow and sleet where it meets the colder air across the country. Confidence is low regards the timing of the arrival of any such disturbance, but there is an increasing risk of something potentially disruptive at some point in this period. Widespread frosts continue by night with wintry showers from the northwest between further potential pulses of snow as weather fronts move in from the west these likely drawing in milder conditions by next weekend.

Updated: 14:00 (UTC) on Thu 11 Jan 2024
Home/Work - Dartmoor
240m/785 ft asl
some faraway beach
11 January 2024 14:40:24

Hi Tally - I feel your frustration where you are on the English Riviera. I don't think the models have been poor, but what we see is understandably affected by our expectations. After some of the output of recent days it would be disappointing not to see at least a bit of snow next week but I have a feeling the MetO will now start the process of easing away from the wintry outlooks in their extended texts today. If you are a fan of GFS then it might be some weeks before the next opportunity of HLB and a cold flow returns to model land - and the days are getting longer.
I might be wrong of course - the next GFS OP might show a snow-laden Northeasterly for everyone but even if it did I don't think the outlook would be any clearer.
I have been very quiet with my forecast group about next week - as it stands that was a wise move.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 



Ah. But as they do so, the seas are getting colder. This is why I no longer bother with detailed examination of the models in the search for snow until February and March (and March in particular). I mean, I'm interested if the models show the possibility of cold in December and January, but I'm happy now to leave it at that. Everything has to be aligned so perfectly to overcome the still-high sea temps that there's no practical point in examining every model run. But in March you have so much more leeway as the oceans cool down. 

I know that Brian regularly dismisses March with his "drip-drip" comment, but my experience is that if it's cloudy enough for snow, the sun is irrelevant. The fact is that down here the best all-day sledging I've ever enjoyed was 19 March 2018.
2 miles west of Taunton, 32 m asl, where "milder air moving in from the west" becomes SNOWMAGEDDON.
Well, two or three times a decade it does, anyway.
Retron
11 January 2024 14:42:56

Widespread frosts continue by night with wintry showers from the northwest between further potential pulses of snow as weather fronts move in from the west these likely drawing in milder conditions by next weekend.

Originally Posted by: Whiteout 


Dreadful grammar aside, I've highlighted the bit which stands out to me. That's the first mention of the breakdown, and the fact they mention it being "likely" means there's relatively high confidence in it happening.

Bah, I was hoping for a better outlook, one more conducive to a longer cold spell.
 
Leysdown, north Kent
UncleAlbert
11 January 2024 14:46:44
With respect  to the signal for a quick return to an Atlantic dominated set up after the 21st, my gut feeling , taking on board some favourable background factors and Met Office predictions is that there will be a return of sorts but this will be watered down by the time we get there and at that point some more interesting model runs will be appearing.  But for now plenty to hold our attention!
Downpour
11 January 2024 14:55:01

*cough* no backing down by the met for midweek next week, via updated forecast - currently on App only  - and press release, longer term possibly milder by next weekend....

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press-office/news/weather-and-climate/2024/disruptive-snow-possible-next-week 

Originally Posted by: Whiteout 



Deakin is in full ramp mode on that video. 

I remain sceptical. But it is worth watching even if JFF. 
Chingford
London E4
147ft
Retron
11 January 2024 14:55:37

With respect  to the signal for a quick return to an Atlantic dominated set up after the 21st, my gut feeling , taking on board some favourable background factors and Met Office predictions is that there will be a return of sorts but this will be watered down by the time we get there and at that point some more interesting model runs will be appearing.  But for now plenty to hold our attention!

Originally Posted by: UncleAlbert 


Well, after reading some techno-waffle on the other side (which was going into all sorts of stuff about the "aggregate global wind-flow budget" and "directional flux of propagation of wind-flow"), it just reinforces my thoughts about how damned hard it is to get everything to align in such a way that you can forecast with certainty. There are the odd occasions, 2018 being the last great one, but it seems no matter how good those background signals/teleconnections etc, something always pops up to spoil things!

I still think it's worth considering the zonal winds at 10hPa, as shown by the ECM. On Boxing Day (using Christmas Day data), a mean reversal was shown. Over the coming days they backed away from that idea, and continued backing off as we got closer to the original date - we ended up with a weakening, but not the holy grail. Fast forward a week from that weakening and we have our current blocking going on.

After that weaker interlude, the vortex gained strength, albeit weaker than normal. That would imply a more mobile pattern down here (if it were simply a case of filtering down), but there will be another marked weakening in a week's time.

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-zonal-mean-zonal-wind?area=nh&base_time=202401100000

A week after that would be the 24th 
. What's the betting that we start seeing better charts again around then, or, if we're already in a less mobile pattern than is currently predicted for then, that the blocking will increase?

 
Leysdown, north Kent
Retron
11 January 2024 14:56:37

Deakin is in full ramp mode on that video. 

I remain sceptical. But it is worth watching even if JFF. 

Originally Posted by: Downpour 


It's yesterday's video, FWIW, the one with that ECM frontal chart and the snow over the M4 graphic I posted.

It'd be good to get another one today!
Leysdown, north Kent
Downpour
11 January 2024 15:00:57

Ah. But as they do so, the seas are getting colder. This is why I no longer bother with detailed examination of the models in the search for snow until February and March (and March in particular). I mean, I'm interested if the models show the possibility of cold in December and January, but I'm happy now to leave it at that. Everything has to be aligned so perfectly to overcome the still-high sea temps that there's no practical point in examining every model run. But in March you have so much more leeway as the oceans cool down. 

I know that Brian regularly dismisses March with his "drip-drip" comment, but my experience is that if it's cloudy enough for snow, the sun is irrelevant. The fact is that down here the best all-day sledging I've ever enjoyed was 19 March 2018.

Originally Posted by: some faraway beach 



Yep March can be great for snow. And it's a winter month until the 21st............
Chingford
London E4
147ft
Tim A
11 January 2024 15:13:11

Well, after reading some techno-waffle on the other side (which was going into all sorts of stuff about the "aggregate global wind-flow budget" and "directional flux of propagation of wind-flow"), it just reinforces my thoughts about how damned hard it is to get everything to align in such a way that you can forecast with certainty. There are the odd occasions, 2018 being the last great one, but it seems no matter how good those background signals/teleconnections etc, something always pops up to spoil things!
  
 

Originally Posted by: Retron 



Seen people disappointed that because everything seemed aligned 'only' a five day cold spell would be gutting.  But the fact is all these background signals have existed in the past, but we know from past experience that a cold snowy spell of more than five days is extremely rare.
Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl

 My PWS 
Downpour
11 January 2024 15:18:40

It's yesterday's video, FWIW, the one with that ECM frontal chart and the snow over the M4 graphic I posted.

It'd be good to get another one today!

Originally Posted by: Retron 



Ah, that makes more sense. It did look somewhat optimistic given recent runs...
Chingford
London E4
147ft
Jiries
11 January 2024 15:26:47

Hi Tally - I feel your frustration where you are on the English Riviera. I don't think the models have been poor, but what we see is understandably affected by our expectations. After some of the output of recent days it would be disappointing not to see at least a bit of snow next week but I have a feeling the MetO will now start the process of easing away from the wintry outlooks in their extended texts today. If you are a fan of GFS then it might be some weeks before the next opportunity of HLB and a cold flow returns to model land - and the days are getting longer.
I might be wrong of course - the next GFS OP might show a snow-laden Northeasterly for everyone but even if it did I don't think the outlook would be any clearer.
I have been very quiet with my forecast group about next week - as it stands that was a wise move.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 



My apple weather app was stupid and weirdo as it was showing -2C max to -9C at night then today switched to -4C to 10C?  What ever model they used are very poor and very unreliable.   Not sure where they got the stupid -9C and 10C plus temps in a day? I don't recall next week being mild?
Retron
11 January 2024 15:26:55

Seen people disappointed that because everything seemed aligned 'only' a five day cold spell would be gutting.  But the fact is all these background signals have existed in the past, but we know from past experience that a cold snowy spell of more than five days is extremely rare.

Originally Posted by: Tim A 


It's interesting, you know, as the term cold spell can encompass much!

For example,

A 5-day cold spell without any frost, but with the odd shortlived snow flurry on day 1
A 5-day cold spell with snow settling on day 1, lasting on the ground until day 5
A 5-day cold spell with two or more days with snow falling, snow-on-snow
A 5-day cold spell which drops six inches of powder snow, leading to drifts of several feet - which last for a couple of weeks after the cold spell ends.

The first is what we're having now, here in my part of Kent. The latter is what we had in 2018... and you can guess which one would be mildly disappointing, giving a sense of having wasted rare synoptics!

Or, in other words, snow maketh the cold spell. Get some snow on the ground, have it hang around for another day or two and most cold-lovers would be happy, I'd imagine!

Hopefully we'll all get to move down that little list I posted by the time this is over.
Leysdown, north Kent
Chunky Pea
11 January 2024 15:27:37

Ah. But as they do so, the seas are getting colder. This is why I no longer bother with detailed examination of the models in the search for snow until February and March (and March in particular). I mean, I'm interested if the models show the possibility of cold in December and January, but I'm happy now to leave it at that. Everything has to be aligned so perfectly to overcome the still-high sea temps that there's no practical point in examining every model run. But in March you have so much more leeway as the oceans cool down. 

I know that Brian regularly dismisses March with his "drip-drip" comment, but my experience is that if it's cloudy enough for snow, the sun is irrelevant. The fact is that down here the best all-day sledging I've ever enjoyed was 19 March 2018.

Originally Posted by: some faraway beach 



I agree. March is basically a winter month. A month with no redeeming qualities at all. It is also the month where tropical maritime airmasses are least likely to have any major influence on the weather. Cold, driving polar maritime airmasses more the norm that feel colder than any 'beast from the east' like episodes despite temps reaching well over +5.0c by day. Longer daylight hours as well so we get to witness the sheer ugliness of that month for even longer. 'Spring', in weather terms, doesn't really start until the very end of April or even early May in my opinion. How March can be classed as a Spring month is beyond me. 
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 


"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Russwirral
11 January 2024 15:31:01
with the "cold spell" starting effectively from Sunday, we now have long range model watching and short term too

ICON rolling out now, with higher res precip viewing, makes for interesting viewing with a varied mix of potential for Sunday/Monday.  From nothing but a cold wind, through to a full band of rain sleet and slow decending through the country on offer.

As much as the long term seems dry, ill say again.  Id rather not know about a feature and it pop up with 48 hrs notice, than to cling on to hopes from 7 days out (as the last few days has had us)

Ignorance is bliss has never seemed more relevant than the last 24 hrs.
nsrobins
11 January 2024 15:38:48

Yep March can be great for snow. And it's a winter month until the 21st............

Originally Posted by: Downpour 


Ah that again. It's only winter until the Equinox (which is the 20th March this year) for:
1) Druids
2) People hoping to see a decent snowfall before 'winter' is over

For all other purposes, including and most importantly data collection (astronomical seasons are unequal lengths) and analysis, scientific description and general common sense, winter is Dec, Jan and Feb ;)
 
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
The Beast from the East
11 January 2024 15:46:44
No comments on ICON? 
Keeps it cold at least though the snow just brushes the south
Hard to say where we go from here, 
https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/icone_cartes.php?&ech=180&mode=0&carte=1 
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Chunky Pea
11 January 2024 15:52:30



For all other purposes, including and most importantly data collection (astronomical seasons are unequal lengths) and analysis, scientific description and general common sense, winter is Dec, Jan and Feb
 

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 



Would be interesting to do a statistical study on this. It wouldn't surprise me if the Dec 21nd to Mar 21st period was slightly cooler overall than just the standard Dec - Feb meteorologically defined winter period. I do know, from messing around with data a few years back that the astronomical summer period is slightly warmer than the meteorological one, which is why I imagine its winter equivalent would be similar.  
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 


"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
ballamar
11 January 2024 15:54:49
GFS to flip back to long term cold later?! Hopefully everything slides SE and we stay on the cold side ICON could do that

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