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Russwirral
11 January 2024 15:56:53

GFS to flip back to long term cold later?! Hopefully everything slides SE and we stay on the cold side ICON could do that

Originally Posted by: ballamar 



I wouldnt be surprised if we have a weekend full of fireworks.  I reckon theres couple of features still in the charts that cuold amplify over the next few runs.

But overall if you were to take what we have seen as a balanced source of info, dry looks mos likely.  But Snowy is not out of the question.
Retron
11 January 2024 16:00:14

No comments on ICON?

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


TBH the 180 chart looks like one of those dodgy ML-generated charts! There's no way it'd verify like this - a massive col with scattered tiny highs and lows dotted around...

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/23/26498/icon_0_180kta0.png 
UserPostedImage
Leysdown, north Kent
Russwirral
11 January 2024 16:09:47
We might find on this run that snow threat is removed from the south, but re-invigorates from the north.

Didnt we have a Polar low on tuesday that vanished?

It could be back
Whiteout
11 January 2024 16:14:22
Snow threat back on for the Midlands south lol. This LP is reminding me of the Storm Henk rain where when it starts the Low will pivot and very slowly move away East - the area affected - Midlands South....hence why the Met are concerned...
Home/Work - Dartmoor
240m/785 ft asl
Whiteout
11 January 2024 16:15:26
https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/run/gfseuw-2-159-3h.png?12 

Sweet spot for this run? Oxford. Last 3 runs, Birmingham, Bournemouth beach now Oxford lol
Home/Work - Dartmoor
240m/785 ft asl
Ally Pally Snowman
11 January 2024 16:16:31
We'll its a Bank! from me . But that is the most borderline snow event you will ever see. Nice to see it back though.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=20&model=gfs&var=53&run=12&time=165&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Whiteout
11 January 2024 16:19:59
UKMO pretty good too 😀
Home/Work - Dartmoor
240m/785 ft asl
Retron
11 January 2024 16:20:34

We'll its a Bank! from me . But that is the most borderline snow event you will ever see. Nice to see it back though.

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


And it's a "jank" from me - more cold rain, delightful.

I do get the feeling, though, the potential for widespread disruptive snow is the highest it's been for a long time, even if it's not IMBY!
Leysdown, north Kent
Ally Pally Snowman
11 January 2024 16:23:10

And it's a "jank" from me - more cold rain, delightful.

I do get the feeling, though, the potential for widespread disruptive snow is the highest it's been for a long time, even if it's not IMBY!

Originally Posted by: Retron 



Hows GEM for you? A day earlier. Bit more widespread. 


https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=20&model=gem&var=25&run=12&time=144&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
ballamar
11 January 2024 16:24:41

We'll its a Bank! from me . But that is the most borderline snow event you will ever see. Nice to see it back though.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=20&model=gfs&var=53&run=12&time=165&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



not more cold rain and back edge sleet please good luck to you
Rob K
11 January 2024 16:25:20

My apple weather app was stupid and weirdo as it was showing -2C max to -9C at night then today switched to -4C to 10C?  What ever model they used are very poor and very unreliable.   Not sure where they got the stupid -9C and 10C plus temps in a day? I don't recall next week being mild?

Originally Posted by: Jiries 


The iPhone app uses the IBM model. I'm not sure if that is available anywhere.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Retron
11 January 2024 16:25:30

Hows GEM for you?

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Snowy! But it's the GEM, and I don't really trust its snow depth charts, they always seem to be a bit too enthusiastic.

Still, I'd have no complaints if that run were to come off... and the funny thing is, it pretty much matches that M4 chart the MetO posted yesterday!

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/11/8182/gemfr_16_144sdo2.png
UserPostedImage 
Leysdown, north Kent
nsrobins
11 January 2024 16:26:04
GFS is really a dog with a bone. By Fri lunchtime it's all over in the South with SWlys moving in. If you look at ICON at T180 it'll likley go the same way.
If (and it's a big if) it does snow in Swindon on Weds it'll all be dishwater by Friday (as it stands, nowithstanding the rest of the run and other caveats of course lol)
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
soperman
11 January 2024 16:26:30
Could be a good event for the Chilts but a week away? All bets off.
Retron
11 January 2024 16:30:34
Incidentally that deep cold air over Scandinavia has been replaced, briefly, by some very mild air. The Baltic has lost a quarter of its sea ice in just four days! It's why I don't buy into the argument, posted on here in the past, that deep cold air is hard to shift. It isn't, sadly...

https://en.ilmatieteenlaitos.fi/ice-conditions 
Leysdown, north Kent
picturesareme
11 January 2024 16:30:55

It's interesting, you know, as the term cold spell can encompass much!

For example,

A 5-day cold spell without any frost, but with the odd shortlived snow flurry on day 1
A 5-day cold spell with snow settling on day 1, lasting on the ground until day 5
A 5-day cold spell with two or more days with snow falling, snow-on-snow
A 5-day cold spell which drops six inches of powder snow, leading to drifts of several feet - which last for a couple of weeks after the cold spell ends.

The first is what we're having now, here in my part of Kent. The latter is what we had in 2018... and you can guess which one would be mildly disappointing, giving a sense of having wasted rare synoptics!

Or, in other words, snow maketh the cold spell. Get some snow on the ground, have it hang around for another day or two and most cold-lovers would be happy, I'd imagine!

Hopefully we'll all get to move down that little list I posted by the time this is over.

Originally Posted by: Retron 



We're currently in a 5 day and counting cold spell down here with todays 5.4C being the warmest day of the lot, however we've only had two nights below freezing 🤣 
White Meadows
11 January 2024 16:32:10
Apart from a few Sunday flurries Scotland seems to miss out big time on this afternoon’s runs so far. The low stays closer to France, still probably rain south of London but big changes happening. 
Then a big ole Euro high to finish with and the daffs alarm clock will be sounding before long. 

Nice to have it dry in the meantime, mind. 
Ally Pally Snowman
11 January 2024 16:32:49
doctormog
11 January 2024 16:39:34
The t850 mean on the 12z GEFS has reached the lowest point of all the sets so far for this location at -11.4°C. There is quite a bit of cold air coming in but there are many other factors at play and much to be decided. I would expect the ensembles and the op run of the GFS to be somewhat at odds again in the medium term at least.

More runs needed (and I don’t mean more of the GFS operational runs at day 8 and beyond!)
picturesareme
11 January 2024 16:41:45

Apart from a few Sunday flurries Scotland seems to miss out big time on this afternoon’s runs so far. The low stays closer to France, still probably rain south of London but big changes happening. 
Then a big ole Euro high to finish with and the daffs alarm clock will be sounding before long. 

Nice to have it dry in the meantime, mind. 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 



Lol they already are up. The young shoots up around 5-6 inches now, and crocus are in flower.
Taylor1740
11 January 2024 16:43:19
I might be writing off this cold spell now based on that GFS, a few cold sunny days then a return to wet and windy by Thursday. Won't be long till I'm writing off the entire Winter at this rate.
NW Leeds - 150m amsl
doctormog
11 January 2024 16:44:17

Lol they already are up. The young shoots up around 5-6 inches now, and crocus are in flower.

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 



I’d expect them to come up here in a couple of months. On a different note the timing of this initial northerly has been remarkably consistent on the model output even if what follows it has not been as clear cut.
Chunky Pea
11 January 2024 16:45:44

GEM is still going lol. Only the SW left out 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=20&model=gem&var=25&run=12&time=222&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref 
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


I'd rather have nothing over that slop. 
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 


"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Whiteout
11 January 2024 16:47:13

GFS is really a dog with a bone. By Fri lunchtime it's all over in the South with SWlys moving in. If you look at ICON at T180 it'll likley go the same way.
If (and it's a big if) it does snow in Swindon on Weds it'll all be dishwater by Friday (as it stands, nowithstanding the rest of the run and other caveats of course lol)

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 



Think people would take that Neil 😀
Home/Work - Dartmoor
240m/785 ft asl
Whiteout
11 January 2024 16:51:13
UKMO 168 chart is pretty special 😍
Home/Work - Dartmoor
240m/785 ft asl

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