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Joe Bloggs
11 January 2024 19:10:45

I have a feeling that it won't be that clear cut. 

Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 



It may well not be, however it looks like a strong signal at the moment. 

It could be high pressure is more stubborn to our north and the lows slide, but not much evidence of that at present. 

It may also be a brief milder interlude rather than a full long lasting zonal breakdown. 

Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
Chunky Pea
11 January 2024 19:18:37

It may well not be, however it looks like a strong signal at the moment. 

It could be high pressure is more stubborn to our north and the lows slide, but not much evidence of that at present. 

It may also be a brief milder interlude rather than a full long lasting zonal breakdown. 

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 



This is what I'm personally hoping for, but I'm a glass half empty sorta fella. 

You are right. The signal is there alright, but I think once a cold airmass sets in over these shores, it is hard to shift.. or at least, not as easy as the current outputs are showing. The likelihood is that the milder flow will win out in the end but I just think it will be a dirtier, slower transition that what we are currently being shown. But I'm not a model with trillions of data points imputed into me all the time, so I'm probably talking bx. 
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
David M Porter
11 January 2024 19:20:54

It may well not be, however it looks like a strong signal at the moment. 

It could be high pressure is more stubborn to our north and the lows slide, but not much evidence of that at present. 

It may also be a brief milder interlude rather than a full long lasting zonal breakdown. 

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 



Your last point seems to tie in fairly well with the thoughts of both the BBC and MetO, Joe.

The last BBC update earlier this week mentioned about a milder spell for a time towards the end of this month/start of Feb, and the 6-15 update from the MetO today seems to suggest something similar.

 
Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Gusty
11 January 2024 19:37:04

Taking the GFS and ECM op runs at face value, and the GEFS - it looks like milder air will take over UK-wide next weekend.

We’re looking at a week-long cold spell. 

 

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 



Yes. I think many of us would be happy to take that when you look at many under achieving Januaries of recent years.
A week with much interest. Cold northerlies, harsh frosts, convective snow showers on favoured windward coasts, a couple of battleground events and probably one last event for the north of the UK with the breakdown by Saturday 20th.

Ps..the Atlantic looks lively again in the longer term. Clearly wanting to make up for its 15 day extended holiday ! 
 
Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



BJBlake
11 January 2024 19:49:34

Yes. I think many of us would be happy to take that when you look at many under achieving Januaries of recent years.
A week with much interest. Cold northerlies, harsh frosts, convective snow showers on favoured windward coasts, a couple of battleground events and probably one last event for the north of the UK with the breakdown by Saturday 20th.

Ps..the Atlantic looks lively again in the longer term. Clearly wanting to make up for its 15 day extended holiday ! 
 

Originally Posted by: Gusty 

Totally agree...but check our pert 15 of the GFS output - which looks rather feasible - and maintains the cold for the northern half of the UK, and a snow-fest that would go with that would be memorable. Just one pert, but with all that heavy weight cold air in place,  I wouldn’t bet against it - as recent evolutions have favoured the colder scenarios of early runs handling this weekend’s cold snap, that are now recent runs for up to the +175 hour mark.
Brecklands, South Norfolk 28m ASL
+1
PFCSCOTTY
11 January 2024 20:00:55

bbc London suggesting  6 degrees from Monday up to 8 by Saturday …isn’t that just average ? 
+1
ballamar
11 January 2024 20:08:37
Now it looks like the end before it began cold spell, when is it acceptable to say FI starts at 72hrs?
Joe Bloggs
11 January 2024 20:28:58
EPS postage stamps for Day 10

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/72/27355/gens_panelrvw9.php.png 

Very strong agreement to milder more mobile conditions. Not 100% though, there are a few rogue members - and may not last too long. 

Still, a cold week to come. Hopefully snow for a fair few. 

Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
MStewart
11 January 2024 20:32:35
This was the corresponding week in 1982, when the south had an amazing snow event although a mild incursion into the south west for a time. I remember this well!

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?jaar=1982&maand=1&dag=8&uur=1800&var=1&map=1&model=cfsr 

points to note
1/ 850 temps are higher than -10
2/ the models would have flick-flacked all over the place beforehand if the tech existed then 

im still excited about next weeks possibilities for snow. I don’t think it’s over just yet, and I’d definitely take another 10 days of cold before a mild-up too. I’m enjoying wearing my coat 😀



 
Mark
Twickenham
12m ASL
Polar Low
11 January 2024 20:36:04

EPS postage stamps for Day 10

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/72/27355/gens_panelrvw9.php.png 

Very strong agreement to milder more mobile conditions. Not 100% though, there are a few rogue members - and may not last too long. 

Still, a cold week to come. Hopefully snow for a fair few. 

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 



Indeed

Not sure why your viewing them in panel Joe complete N/H view here click different members at the top
https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwfens_cartes.php?code=23&ech=264&mode=0&carte=1&ext=0 

 
CField
11 January 2024 20:39:37

This was the corresponding week in 1982, when the south had an amazing snow event although a mild incursion into the south west for a time. I remember this well!

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?jaar=1982&maand=1&dag=8&uur=1800&var=1&map=1&model=cfsr 

points to note
1/ 850 temps are higher than -10
2/ the models would have flick-flacked all over the place beforehand if the tech existed then 

im still excited about next weeks possibilities for snow. I don’t think it’s over just yet, and I’d definitely take another 10 days of cold before a mild-up too. I’m enjoying wearing my coat 😀



 

Originally Posted by: MStewart 

yes remember it well I lived in Hastings and they forecasted snow turning to rain  but the mild air only got as far as Southampton .....
Favourite snowstorm
Famous channel low
Dec 31st 1978
Hastings East Sussex
Foot of level snow severe drifting
Next day max temp -4 degrees Celsius
+1
Saint Snow
11 January 2024 20:40:11

ECM bringing in the Atlantic. In southern and central regions it all seems to depend on the mid-week event. 


UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 




Oh look, pressure has soared over the Western Med/Iberia/NW Africa, to torpedo our chances of a decent cold spell.

Is this something that has really increased in frequency/persistence in the past few years/decades? It's something that the models often don't show until a few days out - like it's not a 'default' thing to model.

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Joe Bloggs
11 January 2024 20:40:26

Indeed

Not sure why your viewing them in panel Joe complete N/H view here click different members at the top
https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwfens_cartes.php?code=23&ech=264&mode=0&carte=1&ext=0 

 

Originally Posted by: Polar Low 



Thanks - yes am aware, but prefer to quickly scan through them all via the panel and also means I can post a link. 👍

Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
Saint Snow
11 January 2024 20:44:22
I've given up on this now being anything to get excited about.

Even if we get snow, it'll quickly get washed away.

No country-crippling snowmageddon this time  😥

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
ballamar
11 January 2024 20:51:42

EPS postage stamps for Day 10

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/72/27355/gens_panelrvw9.php.png 

Very strong agreement to milder more mobile conditions. Not 100% though, there are a few rogue members - and may not last too long. 

Still, a cold week to come. Hopefully snow for a fair few. 

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 


Little hope with that big blob of orange to the south! Just hoping next week delivers something for a day
MStewart
11 January 2024 20:55:42
Where are you looking? So many models, runs, operationals, controls etc
Mark
Twickenham
12m ASL
doctormog
11 January 2024 21:01:04
Nearly time for the 18z runs, will they continue the wintry spell (that is not being discussed) followed by the change to more mobile conditions at day 8+ (that is being discussed)? Will the GFS op run continue to be out of kilter with its ensembles? Will there be more random little features in a similar theme but with different specifics appearing on the 18z GFS op run? Stay tuned for the next exciting instalment of *winter is/is not over.

* delete as appropriate 
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Polar Low
11 January 2024 21:01:52
Big switch to mild at the surface a few as Joe has said hang on in different ways but  key really is it’s a week away, for how long? a complex issue to resolve next week.
May look completely different after the weekend as Michael has said
London at the surface 

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwfens_table.php?x=0&y=0&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&run=12&ext=1&mode=7&sort=0 
ballamar
11 January 2024 21:03:55

Nearly time for the 18z runs, will they continue the wintry spell (that is not being discussed) followed by the change to more mobile conditions at day 8+ (that is being discussed)? Will the GFS op run continue to be out of kilter with its ensembles? Will there be more random little features in a similar theme but with different specifics appearing on the 18z GFS op run? Stay tuned for the next exciting instalment of *winter is/is not over.

* delete as appropriate 

Originally Posted by: doctormog 



definitely not over  - just hope if it does turn mild it doesn’t completely wipe out the cold over Scandi ! Hate to get a mild easterly after this
Joe Bloggs
11 January 2024 21:32:04

I've given up on this now being anything to get excited about.

Even if we get snow, it'll quickly get washed away.

No country-crippling snowmageddon this time  😥

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 



Lovely 18z ICON for us Saint.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ICOOPEU18_120_1.png 

Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
Matty H
11 January 2024 21:33:17

iPhone app was showing 7c for here a week on Saturday during the day…….its now showing   minus 1c lol

Originally Posted by: fullybhoy 



It’s almost like it’s a total waste of time looking at automated apps a week out isn’t it?
Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny 
https://human-rights-channel.coe.int/stop-sexism-en.html 
+3
UncleAlbert
11 January 2024 21:57:22

yes remember it well I lived in Hastings and they forecasted snow turning to rain  but the mild air only got as far as Southampton .....

Originally Posted by: CField 



Biggest blizzard since 1963 in the Bristol area and remains so today.
Joe Bloggs
11 January 2024 21:57:24
The cold is upgrading as we get closer.

Yesterday it was looking like Monday would be a less cold day with slightly warmer uppers. Not anymore.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU18_90_2.png 

Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
squish
11 January 2024 22:05:53
Decent start to the pub run!
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
squish
11 January 2024 22:08:11
Key now is spitting the energy SE around Newfoundland early on to prevent the Atlantic revving up too quickly.

Sods law there will be a run that soon that keeps all the energy too far south!
 
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl

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