theweatheroutlook

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Roger Parsons
12 May 2024 10:47:05
Why you probably missed the Northern Lights on Saturday
"Geomagnetic activity indeed remained very high throughout Saturday, so the aurora was above our heads but sadly not when the sky was dark enough to see it. There were indications that activity would not be in the extreme "G5" category as it was on Friday night but weakened to a severe "G3"... It was indeed at this level into the evening but, just as darkness fell, geomagnetic levels fell below the threshold, leaving many of us rather disappointed at seeing nothing."

However:
"Forecasters at NOAA and the Met Office Space Weather centre are predicting the arrival of another strong CME on Sunday and into Monday.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be strong to severe (G4) with a chance of an increase at times to extreme (G5).
Therefore, for another chance to see the aurora – anywhere in the UK - you might want to keep an eye on things on Sunday night.

Why you probably missed the Northern Lights on Saturday
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cglv53402mko 
RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
+1
Bolty
12 May 2024 14:49:31
A few sources hinting that tonight could be a bit better for the aurora as another solar storm is due to hit us. Added with the risk of thunderstorms this evening, it could make for a very interesting night. Aurora accompanied by lightning flashes - surely that would be a once in a lifetime event for those lucky enough to witness it!
Scott
Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.
My weather station 
+1
Roger Parsons
12 May 2024 20:19:27

A few sources hinting that tonight could be a bit better for the aurora as another solar storm is due to hit us. Added with the risk of thunderstorms this evening, it could make for a very interesting night. Aurora accompanied by lightning flashes - surely that would be a once in a lifetime event for those lucky enough to witness it!

Originally Posted by: Bolty 

Pretty weak data on AuroraWatch just now - but that could change. Keep watching. https://aurorawatch.lancs.ac.uk/ 
 
RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
Retron
13 May 2024 05:21:06

Pretty weak data on AuroraWatch just now - but that could change. Keep watching. https://aurorawatch.lancs.ac.uk/ 
 

Originally Posted by: Roger Parsons 


There were a couple of red bars earlier, but the NASA charts only peaked at around 120GW - the auroras became visible around 200GW down here the other night, apparently, and became spectacular after around 280GW (it peaked at just over 300GW).

I did wake up several times during the night to check, just in case, but of course nothing. I feel a bit zombiefied this morning!
Leysdown, north Kent
+2
Roger Parsons
14 May 2024 14:36:58
"Giant sunspot AR3664 is no longer facing Earth. That makes it extra dangerous. Right now, the Carrington-class sunspot is passing over the sun's western limb--a region of the sun that is magnetically connected to our planet. Indeed, we are feeling the effects of that connection; take a look at this map of ongoing radio blackouts:"
https://spaceweather.com/images2024/14may24/blackoutmap.jpg 
https://spaceweather.com/ 
RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
+1
Roger Parsons
15 May 2024 05:38:56
More solar activity:
THE BIGGEST SOLAR FLARE OF THE CURRENT SOLAR CYCLE:
Earth-orbiting satellites have just detected the most intense solar flare of the current solar cycle (so far)--an X8.7-category blast from giant sunspot AR3664. Extreme ultraviolet radiation from the flare ionized the top of Earth's atmosphere and caused a deep shortwave blackout over the Americas.
https://spaceweather.com/ 
RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
+2
Roger Parsons
16 May 2024 09:36:48

More solar activity:
THE BIGGEST SOLAR FLARE OF THE CURRENT SOLAR CYCLE:
Earth-orbiting satellites have just detected the most intense solar flare of the current solar cycle (so far)--an X8.7-category blast from giant sunspot AR3664. Extreme ultraviolet radiation from the flare ionized the top of Earth's atmosphere and caused a deep shortwave blackout over the Americas.
https://spaceweather.com/ 

Originally Posted by: Roger Parsons 


A series of off-target CMEs emitted by departing sunspot AR3664 has missed Earth.
As a result, today's minor geomagnetic storm watch has been cancelled.
https://spaceweather.com/ 
Nevertheless....
https://aurorawatch.lancs.ac.uk/ 

 
RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
+3
Roger Parsons
18 May 2024 06:29:23
More Northern Lights soon as Sun storms strengthen
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c163j8551ygo 
https://aurorawatch.lancs.ac.uk/ 
RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
+1
Roger Parsons
20 May 2024 06:13:48

A series of off-target CMEs emitted by departing sunspot AR3664 has missed Earth.
As a result, today's minor geomagnetic storm watch has been cancelled.
https://spaceweather.com/ 
Nevertheless....
https://aurorawatch.lancs.ac.uk/ 

 

Originally Posted by: Roger Parsons 

NOAA forcasters say that minor G1-class geomagnetic storms are possible on 20th when a CME is expected to graze Earth's magnetic field. The CME was hurled into space by a powerful M7-class flare on May 17th, so even a glancing blow might be geoeffective."
https://spaceweather.com/ 
 
RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
Roger Parsons
22 May 2024 19:58:55
Spaceweather says: "No CMEs are heading for Earth. This means geomagnetic activity should remain low for the next 3 days." 😬
RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
Roger Parsons
25 May 2024 16:25:50
The May 10th solar superstorm did more than spark worldwide auroras. It also electrified rocks and soil. NOAA and USGS models of the storm reveal "very high" geoelectric fields in parts of the United States.
https://spaceweather.com/ 
 
RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
+2
Roger Parsons
27 May 2024 18:16:47
"Could it happen again? Sunspot AR3664, which caused the historic May 10th superstorm, is returning following a two-week trip around the farside of the sun. It announced itself today with an X2.8-class solar flare."
https://spaceweather.com/ 
RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
+3
Roger Parsons
29 May 2024 20:28:04
"Returning sunspot AR3664 is picking up where it left off two weeks ago. Today, it unleashed a long-duration X1.4-class solar flare, which caused a deep shortwave radio blackout over the Americas. From now on, every explosion will be geoeffective as the sunspot turns to squarely face our planet in the days ahead. "
https://spaceweather.com/ 

 
RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
Roger Parsons
02 June 2024 15:18:30

"Returning sunspot AR3664 is picking up where it left off two weeks ago. Today, it unleashed a long-duration X1.4-class solar flare, which caused a deep shortwave radio blackout over the Americas. From now on, every explosion will be geoeffective as the sunspot turns to squarely face our planet in the days ahead. "
https://spaceweather.com/ 

 

Originally Posted by: Roger Parsons 

"Evidence is mounting that a halo CME seemingly hurled into space by one of yesterday's X-flares (see below) may have been a farside event. If so, the coincidental cloud will miss our planet and not cause any geomagnetic storms." See link above.
RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
Roger Parsons
03 June 2024 07:37:01

NOAA forcasters say that minor G1-class geomagnetic storms are possible on 20th when a CME is expected to graze Earth's magnetic field. The CME was hurled into space by a powerful M7-class flare on May 17th, so even a glancing blow might be geoeffective."
https://spaceweather.com/ 
 

Originally Posted by: Roger Parsons 

Update:
A "G1-class geomagnetic storm is possible on June 4th when a CME is expected to graze Earth's magnetic field. The CME was hurled into space on June 1st by a complex X1-M7 double solar flare. Much confusion has attended this forecast because there were actually two CMEs at the same time--one toward Earth and one away from Earth."
RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
+1
Roger Parsons
03 June 2024 16:27:36
"Planetary Line-up" is fake news by crap journalists and barking "Web-crazies". e.g.
"Five planets will align in the night sky on Tuesday in a celestial lineup that will not occur again for 17 years. Jupiter, Mars, Mercury, Uranus and Venus will all be visible at the same time in an ultra rare planetary alignment, which Nasa has dubbed a 'planet parade'."
https://www.independent.co.uk/space/five-planets-aligned-tonight-how-to-watch-b2309863.html 

Sky & Telescope says: There is no "planet parade" spectacle!
"There is no "planet parade" spectacle! Friends and relatives may be asking you about the incredible "Planet Parade" they've heard is happening in the sky. Some internet and "news" outlets are calling it the third great celestial spectacle of this spring after the solar eclipse and the auroras.
Sorry. This is a case of a crazy-weird falsehood ballooning from a tiny kernel of truth and rolling like wildfire through the modern world.
The kernel of truth? This week, the seven planets other than Earth are in a line spanning about 90° along the ecliptic. But most of them are too close to our line of sight to the Sun to be seen at all. Only modest Saturn and Mars are in naked-eye view as dawn begins these mornings."

This Week's Sky at a Glance, May 31 – June 9
https://skyandtelescope.org/astronomy-news/observing-news/this-weeks-sky-at-a-glance-may-31-june-9/ 
RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
+2
Roger Parsons
08 June 2024 19:39:39
"A powerful explosion on the sun today peppered Earth and nearby spacecraft with "hard" protons. The radiation storm fogged satellite cameras for hours. Following close behind, a CME is heading for Earth, and its arrival on June 10th could spark G2-class geomagnetic storms." Full story
https://spaceweather.com/ 
https://aurorawatch.lancs.ac.uk/ 
RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
+1
Roger Parsons
13 June 2024 20:57:39
 Noctilucent clouds (NLCs) are spilling out of the Arctic to lower latitudes. Marek Nikodem spotted the electric-blue clouds at midnight (June 11-12) over Szubin, Poland (+53N):     
"These are our first noctilucent clouds of the season here in Poland," says Nikodem. "It was a very nice display."
https://spaceweathergallery2.com/full_image.php?image_name=Marek-Nikodem-CDS_4125_1718152701.jpg 
https://spaceweather.com/ 
RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
+1
Roger Parsons
13 June 2024 20:58:44

"For the second day in a row, protons from the sun are raining down on Earth. This is causing a shortwave radio blackout inside the Arctic Circle--also known as a polar cap absorption event. The protons are being funneled toward the Arctic by Earth's magnetic field; their ionizing effect extinguishes shortwave transmissions at all frequencies below 30 MHz. This event should last for another 24 to 48 hours. You can monitor its progress here."
https://spaceweather.com/ 
RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
+1
Roger Parsons
15 June 2024 16:45:23
A CME hit Earth's magnetic field today, June 15th (1157 UT). The unexpected impact sparked a minor G1-class geomagnetic storm, which could wax and wane for the rest of the day.
Also:
A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SUNSPOT:
Only a few days ago, sunspot AR3712 didn't exist. Now it's 8 times wider than Earth and growing fast:
Magnetograms of the sunspot reveal a mixed-polarity magnetic field with north (+) and south (-) poles bumping together. Magnetic reconnection could soon cause an X-class solar flare. Any such eruption this weekend will be geoeffective as the sunspot is turning to directly face Earth.

https://spaceweather.com/ 
https://aurorawatch.lancs.ac.uk/ 
 
RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
+1
Roger Parsons
19 June 2024 17:50:27
Summer will officially arrive in the Northern Hemisphere on Thursday (June 20) at 4:51 p.m. EDT (2051 GMT) — the June Solstice.  
At that moment, the sun will reach the point at which it's farthest north of the celestial equator. To be more precise, when the solstice occurs, the sun will appear to be shining directly overhead for a point on the Tropic of Cancer (latitude 23.5 degrees north) in the eastern Pacific Ocean, roughly 1,100 statute miles (1,800 kilometers) southwest of Los Angeles.  

June solstice 2024 brings changing seasons to Earth on June 20 — What to know
https://www.space.com/june-solstice-2024-changing-seasons 
RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
+2
Roger Parsons
24 June 2024 17:47:47
Noctilucent Clouds...
"Last night, an outbreak of noctilucent clouds (NLCs) lit up Europe as far south as Paris. This is supposed to be a bad year for NLCs because of high solar activity. However, the clouds didn't get the memo."  😁
https://spaceweather.com/ 
RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
Roger Parsons
28 June 2024 17:55:45
Noctilucent Clouds
"Sky watchers in Europe are reporting intense displays of noctilucent clouds. To say this is a surprise would be an understatement. Solar Max has arrived, and solar activity should be melting the clouds away. Water vapor injected into the mesosphere by the Tonga volcano and SpaceX rockets could be upending normal trends in noctilucent cloud formation."
https://spaceweather.com/ 
RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
+2
Windy Willow
28 June 2024 18:39:30

Noctilucent Clouds"Sky watchers in Europe are reporting intense displays of noctilucent clouds. To say this is a surprise would be an understatement. Solar Max has arrived, and solar activity should be melting the clouds away. Water vapor injected into the mesosphere by the Tonga volcano and SpaceX rockets could be upending normal trends in noctilucent cloud formation."https://spaceweather.com/

Originally Posted by: Roger Parsons 


I thought I may have seen nocilicent cloud 2 evenings back, whilst sat in the garden, this makes me now believe I did indeed see it, as this was the same night as the amazing display in ireland, although what I saw was just a small part and nowhere near as spectacular as the online pictures.
South Holland, Lincs 5m/16ft ASL

Don't feed the Trolls!! When starved of attention they return to their dark caves or the dark recesses of bridges and will turn back to stone, silent again!
+2
Roger Parsons
28 June 2024 18:51:27
Keep looking!!!!
RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
+1

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