theweatheroutlook

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four
  • four
  • Advanced Member
Saturday, June 29, 2024 12:09:04 PM
Hmmm ...  I aren't convinced there's any change in frequency at all, but periodically they get a bit of publicity so increased reports helped by social media.
They are very much a peak summer thing a month or so either side of longest day and are quite common then but not every night plus it needs to be mainly clear. 
You will mainly see them from at twilight an hour or more after sunset or before sunrise at UK latitudes - typically just as brightest stars become visible.
North York Moors weather 
Roger Parsons
Saturday, June 29, 2024 12:51:07 PM

Hmmm ...  I aren't convinced there's any change in frequency at all, but periodically they get a bit of publicity so increased reports helped by social media.They are very much a peak summer thing a month or so either side of longest day and are quite common then but not every night plus it needs to be mainly clear. You will mainly see them from at twilight an hour or more after sunset or before sunrise at UK latitudes - typically just as brightest stars become visible.

Originally Posted by: four 


The Space Weather link I gave is usually reliable. I don't read or trust information from general social media or even the general press on such things. New Scientist, which I also treat with caution, says: "Record amount of water from 2022 Tonga eruption is still in atmosphere. Millions of tonnes of water vapour have been lingering in the atmosphere since the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai volcano erupted in 2022." It does not mention NL clouds but links its theme to Global Warming. Whatever your opinion, we might get some good views, so "Clear Skies" and keep looking.
RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
Roger Parsons
Wednesday, July 3, 2024 8:01:56 AM
Green Ghosts in a geomagnetic storm
"Last week, a photographer in South Dakota caught Green Ghosts in a geomagnetic storm. Green Ghosts are a relatively new discovery. They appear when sprites shoot into the atmosphere above strong thunderstorms. This may be the first time the mysterious ghosts have been photographed surrounded by auroras. "
https://spaceweather.com/images2024/02jul24/greenghosts_strip3.jpg 
https://spaceweather.com/ 
RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
+1
Roger Parsons
Wednesday, July 3, 2024 8:15:52 AM
Astronomy Photographer of the Year shortlist revealed
https://www.rmg.co.uk/whats-on/astronomy-photographer-year/galleries/2024-shortlist?f24_pid=c31dabb0-06c7-4d2e-bd99-3e8da31945b0 
RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
+1
Roger Parsons
Thursday, July 4, 2024 10:24:14 AM
Spaceweather: "Yesterday, July 3rd, just before sunrise in Florida, a Falcon 9 rocket blasted off from Cape Canaveral carrying 20 Starlink satellites. After the launch, a magnificent display of noctilucent clouds (NLCs) spread across the sky."
https://spaceweather.com/images2024/04jul24/rocketNLC_strip.jpg 
https://spaceweather.com/ 
RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
+1
Roger Parsons
Monday, July 8, 2024 7:07:48 AM
"A potentially-large sunspot group is hiding just behind the sun's southeastern limb. It's the big dark spot in this helioseismic map of the sun's farside. The active region will rotate onto the Earthside of the sun early this week."
https://spaceweather.com/images2024/07jul24/fatsidemap.jpg 
https://spaceweather.com/  
RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
+1
Roger Parsons
Wednesday, July 10, 2024 2:50:46 PM
"Sunspot AR3738 is getting really big. Watch this movie showing how it has grown in the past 5 days. Now almost ten times wider than Earth, the sunspot group is directly facing our planet with a 'beta-gamma' magnetic field that harbors energy for geoeffective solar flares."
https://spaceweather.com/images2024/09jul24/fastgrowing_crop_strip.gif 
https://spaceweather.com/ 
RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
Roger Parsons
Thursday, July 11, 2024 1:15:47 PM
Meteor shower dates - 3 in July and August.
https://www.rmg.co.uk/stories/topics/meteor-shower-guide 

RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
+2
Roger Parsons
Thursday, July 11, 2024 6:48:10 PM
The May 10th Superstorm Had an Unprecedented Effect on Satellites
" Earth just experienced the biggest mass migration of satellites in history. On May 10, 2024, approximately 5000 spacecraft had to maneuver to maintain altitude, resisting a geomagnetic storm that was trying to pull them down."
https://spaceweather.com/ 
RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
+2
Roger Parsons
Monday, July 15, 2024 11:06:12 AM
Update:
"Jonathan McDowell of Harvard University reports that all 20 Starlink satellites launched on July 11th have re-entered Earth's atmosphere. A failure in SpaceX's Falcon 9 rocket caused the satellites to be deployed lower than usual, too low to escape the drag of the atmosphere below. Right now, our atmosphere is extra-puffed up by high solar activity, so the satellites were doomed despite "warp 9" thuster firings."
https://spaceweather.com/ 
RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
+1
Roger Parsons
Tuesday, July 16, 2024 2:07:41 PM
Sunspot - Proton Storm Alert.
Big, active sunspot AR3738 is approaching "the danger zone"- a region of the sun magnetically connected to Earth via the Parker Spiral. If the sunspot explodes today or tomorrow, it could send a fusillade of energetic protons spiraling toward Earth. Such "proton storms" can fog cameras on Earth-orbiting satellites and reboot their computers.
https://spaceweather.com/ 

RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
+1
Saint Snow
Tuesday, July 16, 2024 2:21:21 PM

Sunspot - Proton Storm Alert.
Big, active sunspot AR3738 is approaching "the danger zone"- a region of the sun magnetically connected to Earth via the Parker Spiral. If the sunspot explodes today or tomorrow, it could send a fusillade of energetic protons spiraling toward Earth. Such "proton storms" can fog cameras on Earth-orbiting satellites and reboot their computers.
https://spaceweather.com/ 

Originally Posted by: Roger Parsons 



Increased potential for aurora?

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Roger Parsons
Tuesday, July 16, 2024 2:28:20 PM

Increased potential for aurora?

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


I doubt it, Saint - but I'll let you know if things change. Recent cloudy skies have made the seeing impossible. I'd been hoping for some Noctilucent clouds. Europe was reporting them earlier. No luck here!!!!!! No meteors either.

The Delta Aquariids meteor shower is active from 12 July to 23 August
https://www.rmg.co.uk/stories/topics/delta-aquariid-meteor-shower-2024-when-where-see-it-uk 

The Perseid meteor shower is active between 17 July and 24 August
https://www.rmg.co.uk/stories/topics/perseid-meteor-shower-guide-uk-when-where-to-see 

Keep an eye on Aurorawatch: I see we had a "yellow bar" today.
https://aurorawatch.lancs.ac.uk/ 
RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
Retron
Tuesday, July 16, 2024 2:43:28 PM

Keep an eye on Aurorawatch: I see we had a "yellow bar" today.
https://aurorawatch.lancs.ac.uk/ 

Originally Posted by: Roger Parsons 


Bear in mind you'll be a disadvantage anyway as it's still mid-summer - we don't get proper nights at this time of year, just twilight. That means you'll need an even stronger input to generate a visible aurora *and* you'll need to be as close to 1AM as possible.

Nights return here on Saturday the 20th, but further north it'll be later (30th for Manchester, 13th August for Aberdeen!)
Leysdown, north Kent
+2
Roger Parsons
Wednesday, July 17, 2024 2:06:49 PM
"Low in the northwest or north at the end of these long summer twilights, would you recognize noctilucent clouds if you saw them? They're the most astronomical of all cloud types, with their extreme altitude and, sometimes, formation on meteoric dust particles. And they're fairly rare — though becoming more common in recent years as the atmosphere changes."
https://skyandtelescope.org/astronomy-news/observing-news/this-weeks-sky-at-a-glance-july-12-21/ 
This Week's Sky at a Glance:
https://skyandtelescope.org/observing/sky-at-a-glance/ 
RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
+1
Roger Parsons
Monday, July 22, 2024 4:48:39 PM
A halo CME is heading for Earth following yesterday's dramatic 'dark plasma eruption,' described below. Its impact this Wednesday could spark a G2-class geomagnetic storm. A NOAA model suggests that the CME could arrive as early as 0200 UT on July 24th
https://spaceweather.com/ 
https://spaceweather.com/images2024/21jul24/doubleplume_strip_opt.gif 
You probably will not see an aurora with the light nights - but if we get hit you can watch the data coming in on Aurorawatch:
https://aurorawatch.lancs.ac.uk/ 
RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
Roger Parsons
Tuesday, July 23, 2024 1:24:51 PM
I'm sure there have been posts about the feasibility of Space Colonies - but I can't seem to find them.
There's a good review in the latest "Biologist" about a book by Kelly and Zack Weinersmith entitled "A City on Mars: Can We Settle Space, Should We Settle Space, and Have We Really Thought it Through?" It's a very readable review and it sounds like the book will be too.

"The resulting book, A City on Mars, has quickly become a New York Times bestseller. It’s hugely entertaining, thanks to Kelly’s funny yet deeply researched essays on the mad realities of space colonisation, and Zach’s zany diagrams, cartoons and illustrations.
The book is also surprisingly frustrating, heartbreaking even. Because for all the authors' research showing how space settlement will be near impossible, absurdly costly and, most of all, plain horrible, many of the world’s wealthiest people still seem far more interested in going there than making our current planet liveable."

Here's the link to the review:
https://www.rsb.org.uk/biologist-book-reviews/a-city-on-mars-can-we-settle-space-should-we-settle-space-and-have-we-really-thought-this-through 
RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
+1
Roger Parsons
Friday, July 26, 2024 6:14:07 AM
Europe's Solar Orbiter (SolO) spacecraft just detected the most intense solar flare of the current solar cycle. The X14-category explosion sprayed energetic particles throughout the solar system, causing high dose rates on Mars and even hitting Earth on the opposite side of the sun. The source of the flare could turn to face our planet late next week. Full story:
https://spaceweather.com/ 
RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
+1
Roger Parsons
Friday, July 26, 2024 1:30:29 PM
Minor Geomagnetic activity 14.30hrs on 26/7/2024
https://aurorawatch.lancs.ac.uk/ 
RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
Roger Parsons
Saturday, July 27, 2024 7:06:00 AM
NOAA forecasters say that G1-class geomagnetic storms are possible today, July 27th, when a CME is expected to graze Earth's magnetic field. 
https://spaceweather.com/ 
RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
Saturday, July 27, 2024 7:28:00 AM

NOAA forecasters say that G1-class geomagnetic storms are possible today, July 27th, when a CME is expected to graze Earth's magnetic field. 
https://spaceweather.com/ 

Originally Posted by: Roger Parsons 


For clarification, the classification of geomagnetic storms runs from G1 (minor, basically not noticed, ca 1700 per 11-year cycle ) to G5 (major, widespread disruption, 4 expected per 11-year cycle).


https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+2
Roger Parsons
Sunday, July 28, 2024 5:48:02 AM
Update: "At least one CME is heading for Earth following a series of solar flares on July 27th (described below). Forecast models are still preliminary, in part because multiple CMEs have emerged and must be untangled for proper modeling. NOAA forecasters are predicting a G2-class geomagnetic storm on July 30th." At this time of year we can't expect to see auroras - but we can monitor the effect in other ways.
https://spaceweather.com/ 
https://aurorawatch.lancs.ac.uk/ 
RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
+1
Roger Parsons
Monday, July 29, 2024 5:03:49 AM

Update: "At least one CME is heading for Earth following a series of solar flares on July 27th (described below). Forecast models are still preliminary, in part because multiple CMEs have emerged and must be untangled for proper modeling. NOAA forecasters are predicting a G2-class geomagnetic storm on July 30th." At this time of year we can't expect to see auroras - but we can monitor the effect in other ways.
https://spaceweather.com/ 
https://aurorawatch.lancs.ac.uk/ 

Originally Posted by: Roger Parsons 


More from "Spaceweather":
"Multiple CMEs are heading toward Earth following a series of strong M-class solar flares this weekend. Two of the CMEs may be merging to form a potent Cannibal CME. The action begins on July 30th and 31st when the CMEs are expected to arrive, possibly sparking strong G3-class geomagnetic storms." 

See DEW's useful summary of Flare categories above.
RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
+1
Roger Parsons
Monday, July 29, 2024 7:22:39 AM
Light nights stop you seeing Auroras, but the best view I have had of them in the UK was driving north from Spalding to Coningsby one winter evening after a attending a lecture at the Spalding Gentlemen's Society [Yes, it's true!] We realised something significant was visible ahead so we pulled in on a dark side road and enjoyed a spectacular display. It does happen. 😁
https://www.sgsoc.org/ 
RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
+2
Roger Parsons
Monday, July 29, 2024 1:58:58 PM
Sunspot complex AR3765-67 is crackling with strong flares - and they're getting stronger. An impulsive X1.5 flare this morning at 0237 UT caused a deep shortwave radio blackout over Japan, southeast Asia and Australia (map). More X-flares are in the offing as the sunspot complex turns directly toward Earth later today.
https://spaceweather.com/images2024/29jul24/hmi1898.gif 
https://spaceweather.com/ 
RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
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