September 2024 has been very contrasting with high pressure and low pressure alternating. We've had some unusually cold days and recently plenty of warm and dry weather. The coming week will start with a thundery breakdown but will quickly swing into a cool and unsettled regime with a return of northerly winds later in the week.
Saturday morning has been dry in central and northern regions but the south have had some scattered heavy thundery showers and thunderstorms. This afternoon will see showers and storms pushing westwards into Wales and south west England leaving large portions of the south and south east mostly dry. Scotland, Northern Ireland and northern England will stay dry with sunny spells in the west but more cloud is likely at times in the east. It will be a warm and humid day with temperatures of 18C to 22C but north sea coasts will be cooler at just 14c.
Overnight, heavy rain and thunderstorms pushes up from with south with much of England and Wales turning very wet by morning. Scotland, Northern Ireland and northern England will keep the dry weather going but watch out for patchy drizzle towards the east coast. Temperatures will be quite cold for Scotland but warm for southern England with a range from 2C to 18C tonight.
Sunday will heavy heavy, thundery showers or longer spells of thundery rain coming and going for much of the day across England and Wales. Watch out for some torrential rain and localized flooding in places. Once more much of Scotland, Northern Ireland and northern England will stay dry but with more cloud compared to recent days. Temperatures will still be warm in the south at 18C to 22C but cooler in the north at 12C to 16C.
A thundery area of low pressure remains over the top of the UK on Monday. Expect more heavy and thundery rain for parts of England and Wales with a further risk of localized flooding in places. The wettest weather will gradually move eastwards with time while most central, northern and western parts of the country stay dry though a band of rain is likely to push southwards into northern Scotland by evening. Generally a much cooler day with temperatures of 10C to 16C but the far south east could still reach 20C.
We should be between areas of low pressure on Tuesday. Scotland and north east England will have some showery rain at times but most places will have a drier day with sunny spells and variable cloud. A rather cool day with temperatures of 11C to 17C.
The next area of low pressure pushes in from off the Atlantic on Wednesday. Outbreaks of heavy and persistent look all set to push northeastwards across the country with some very wet weather likely in places. Winds will also freshen with gales possible around Irish Sea coasts. Temperatures will be turning colder in the north at 8C to 13C but the south will hang on to 15C to 17C.
A secondary low could form from Wednesday into Thursday with a risk of more torrential rain for parts of England and Wales while Scotland and Northern Ireland could be drier and brighter but colder with a risk of wintry showers over the Scottish mountains. Temperatures ranging from just 7C to 15C.
Friday should see all the areas of low pressure clearing away to the east leaving us in a run of straight northerly winds. Wintry showers are possible for mountainous areas of northern Scotland but many places could stay dry with sunny spells. A cold day for late September with temperatures of just 7C to 14C. Watch out for frost risk on Friday night.
Next week could see a ridge of high pressure building across the country with the weather turning drier but it's also likely to be cold with a continued frost risk overnight, especially in the north.
Summary: Turning very unsettled with thunderstorm risk to start followed by spells of persistent heavy rain and localized flooding especially focused on England and Wales. Colder and drier by the end of the week.
Rural West Northants 120m asl
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