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JMM2005
29 September 2024 22:39:19
 We hed to October and autumn proper though for many we have already seen a fair bit of autumnal weather. What have the wether gods in store for us this year.
All time CET 9.73
1991 - 2020 CET 10.59
All time Warmest
Year    Temp
2001   13.20
1969   13.10
2005   13.00
2006   12.90
1921   12.80

All time Coldest
Year    Temp
1740    5.30
1817    6.40
1683    6.50
1692    6.50
1896    6.90

1991 – 2020 Warmest
Year    Temp
2001   13.20
2005   13.00
2006   12.90
1995   12.70
2011   12.50

1991 – 2020 Coldest
Year    Temp
1992   7.70
1993   8.30
2003   9.10
2008   9.50
2012   9.50

Models are very mixed I am going to got for a flat 10C for the Month but given recent chilly weather a sub 10c and even a colder than all time CET would not surprise me. 

As always can I have your predictions through by Midnight tomorrow 30th September, 

Regards Justin 

Justin
Brighton seafront
Webcam of the beach and Brighton's palace pier
https://www.skylinewebcams.com/en/webcam/united-kingdom/england/brighton/brighton-pier.html 
Bertwhistle
30 September 2024 07:47:02
Continued suggestions of persistent cold over Scandinavia and W Russia make me bet on the low(er) side. I'll PM my guess Justin.
Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.
Saint Snow
30 September 2024 10:19:38
October has got to be in with a shout for the toughest month to forecast the temp for.

It's also interesting to note the lack of representation of recent Octobers in the all-time coldest. We very rarely get a cold October these days.

A curiosity is that none of the coolest Octobers since 1991 have been followed by a notably decent winter (93/4, 03/4 and 08/9 all had some snow, but not overall good)



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Windy Willow
30 September 2024 15:37:12
I'm hoping for something cooler. but maybe not cold. It will be law of sod though if it now ends up warmer!
South Holland, Lincs 5m/16ft ASL

Don't feed the Trolls!! When starved of attention they return to their dark caves or the dark recesses of bridges and will turn back to stone, silent again!
Bertwhistle
02 October 2024 16:06:35
HadCET 11.8°C to 1st. An ambivalent start by October.
Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.
Saint Snow
02 October 2024 16:24:02
This needs stickying, Mods!

😉

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Spring Sun Winter Dread
02 October 2024 20:27:52
Saint Snow , re your comment on October and winter : for the SE England I would certainly consider 2008-09 to be one of the better ones of the last 30 years or so for cold and snow , it delivered the heaviest snowfall here since Feb 1991 in the February and was the first in a series of 3 successive colder than average winters . I know further north and in Scotland it was relatively unremarkable . No winter since 2010-11 has been colder in the CET though . That amazing cold and snowy snap at the end of Oct 2008 was effectively a preview of it.
On the whole though it is fair to say there is no correlation . Cold October followed by mild winter is a thing (eg 1992, 93, 2003 though none of those were exceptionally mild), while conversely the very warm October of 1995 was followed by a (relatively by modern standards) harsh winter . But no trend ! 
johncs2016
02 October 2024 21:36:26

This needs stickying, Mods!

😉

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


Hungry Tiger was very quick in stickying the autumn moaning thread, and I'm sure that he'll sticky this thread as well when he is ready to do so.

I reckon that he's probably just either busy or on holiday just now.
The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
ARTzeman
03 October 2024 08:38:00
IMANSF143           10.2C         Nicks'1BATH75   10.5c
Metrcheck              11.23c            Anomaly        0.73c
Netweather            23.48c            Anomaly        2.09c
Peasedown St John  8.79c            Anomaly        -3.91c.




Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Gavin D
03 October 2024 14:31:35
Hadley

12.5 to the 2nd

2.0c above the 61 to 90 average
0.1c above the 81 to 10 average
Saint Snow
03 October 2024 14:47:29

Saint Snow , re your comment on October and winter : for the SE England I would certainly consider 2008-09 to be one of the better ones of the last 30 years or so for cold and snow , it delivered the heaviest snowfall here since Feb 1991 in the February and was the first in a series of 3 successive colder than average winters . I know further north and in Scotland it was relatively unremarkable . No winter since 2010-11 has been colder in the CET though . That amazing cold and snowy snap at the end of Oct 2008 was effectively a preview of it.
On the whole though it is fair to say there is no correlation . Cold October followed by mild winter is a thing (eg 1992, 93, 2003 though none of those were exceptionally mild), while conversely the very warm October of 1995 was followed by a (relatively by modern standards) harsh winter . But no trend ! 

Originally Posted by: Spring Sun Winter Dread 





Yes, I get I was being subjective.

A curse of living int he UK is that snow events are rare enough, but nationwide snow events are like hen's teeth.

FWIW, I found the 2008/9 winter to be immensely frustrating. We had one day where it snowed light-to-moderately for about 3 hours in an air temp of about 2c and nothing stuck, beyond a slushy mess on grass. There was one occasion either that winter or the preceding one, though, where we had genuinely freezing rain. It was fascinating to witness.

That winter also pales into insignificance in comparison to the two winters that followed (and, indeed, to 2012/13)

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
ARTzeman
04 October 2024 10:18:51
IMANSF143        9.6c       Nicks'1BATH75      10.3c
Metcheck            10.86c         Anomaly          0.35c
Netweather          11.96c        Anomaly          1.57c
Peasedown St John   9.81c     Anomaly          -2.89c.......       




Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Gavin D
04 October 2024 16:44:19
Hadley

11.9 to the 3rd

1.4c above the 61 to 90 average
0.3c below the 81 to 10 average
ARTzeman
05 October 2024 09:01:01
IMANSF143         10.1c          Nicks'1BATH75     10.1c
Metcheck             10.76c              Anomaly           0.25c
Netweather          11.68c              Anomaly           1.29c
Peasedown St John  9.6c              Anomaly           -3.1c.




Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Gavin D
05 October 2024 14:03:12
Hadley
11.5 to the 4th

1.0c above the 61 to 90 average
0.6c below the 81 to 10 average
Spring Sun Winter Dread
05 October 2024 16:13:25
Amazing contrast there SS.
For me Feb 2009 and Oct 2008 still stand out as 2 of the most notable snow events I can remember.
The former for it's intensity and depths , the latter ... Simply because it was in October ! And this was after a period of several years when we had struggled to get anything in the depths of winter making it all the more remarkable  
Not sure I will see October snow again in the south in my lifetime 
Gavin D
06 October 2024 13:23:02
Hadley

11.5 to the 5th

0.9c above the 61 to 90 average
0.5c below the 81 to 10 average
Hungry Tiger
07 October 2024 11:07:11
Apologies for sticking this a bit late. Had some problems at home and forgot.   🙂 
Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


Hungry Tiger
07 October 2024 11:14:47
I'll go for 11.75. Sorry this is a late one. I expect penalty here.   
Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


Gavin D
07 October 2024 13:14:57
Hadley

11.6 to the 6th

1.0c above the 61 to 90 average
0.3c below the 81 to 10 average
ARTzeman
08 October 2024 10:32:31
IMANSF143        11.34C      Nicks1BATH75      11.5c.
Metcheck            11.51c            Anomaly          1.00c
Netweather         12.23c            Anomaly          1.64c
Peasedown St John     11.27     Anomaly         -1.43c.




Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Gavin D
08 October 2024 13:27:27
Hadley
11.9 to the 7th

1.4c above the 61 to 90 average
Bang on the 81 to 10 average
ARTzeman
09 October 2024 09:42:20
IMANSF143           11.5c        Nicks'1BATH75      11.5c
Metcheck               11.69c            Anomaly           1.18c
Netweather            12.42c            Anomaly            2.03c
Peasedown St John  11.13c          Anomaly            2.03c.  




Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
ARTzeman
10 October 2024 08:59:35
IMANSF145           11.15c          Nicks'1BATH45      11.5c
Metcheck               11.64c               Anomaly          1.13c
Netweather            12.47c               Anomaly          2.08c
Peasedown St John  11.52c             Anomaly          -1.18c.     




Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Gavin D
10 October 2024 13:10:16
Hadley
12.2 to the 9th

1.7c above the 61 to 90 average
0.4c above the 81 to 10 average
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