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picturesareme
09 October 2024 01:51:38
I've just read that winds back up to 185mph at the surface. Apparently information from the most recent fly through so won't have been updated yet on NHC
Matty H
09 October 2024 09:02:03
This thing had winds of around 200mph yesterday. A truly catastrophic category 5 storm.  It’s expected to “Weaken” today and make landfall as a category 3 storm with winds of around 125mph. Still bad, but nowhere near as bad as it looked like it may be at one stage. 
The Beast from the East
09 October 2024 10:18:19

This thing had winds of around 200mph yesterday. A truly catastrophic category 5 storm.  It’s expected to “Weaken” today and make landfall as a category 3 storm with winds of around 125mph. Still bad, but nowhere near as bad as it looked like it may be at one stage. 

Originally Posted by: Matty H 


Its still 160, not yet being shredded by the wind sheer, it will happen, but may even still be Cat 4 on landfall 
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
The Beast from the East
09 October 2024 10:37:23
Nice animation

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
09 October 2024 12:27:32

This thing had winds of around 200mph yesterday. A truly catastrophic category 5 storm.  It’s expected to “Weaken” today and make landfall as a category 3 storm with winds of around 125mph. Still bad, but nowhere near as bad as it looked like it may be at one stage. 

Originally Posted by: Matty H 


Too late to stop the storm surge, and that's what will kill people if they rely on a lower wind speed.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
09 October 2024 12:34:00
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cr753r34n3rt 

Hurricane Milton is currently located around 300 miles (485 km) south west of Tampa, Florida, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC).  It has a maximum sustained wind speed of 160 mph (260 km/h) and remains a category 5 hurricane.

So much for hopes of weakening. [report time 1159 BST]


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Gandalf The White
09 October 2024 13:16:22
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cr753r34n3rt 

Hurricane Milton is currently located around 300 miles (485 km) south west of Tampa, Florida, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC).  It has a maximum sustained wind speed of 160 mph (260 km/h) and remains a category 5 hurricane.

So much for hopes of weakening. [report time 1159 BST]


Milton has just dipped below the Cat 5 threshold by 2mph, so technically now Cat 4, but at 155 mph that’s still going to cause horrendous damage, together with the rain and massive storm surge.

I was reading that the Tampa Bay Area has several million residents.  How do you move that many people - and where do they go?  Apparently a lot live in single storey homes, including trailer parks.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Russwirral
09 October 2024 13:42:35
From what I understand this is a serious hurricane.... but i do feel the press has gone into hyperbole about it.  

True its a serious storm, made more serious by its trajectory, and yes - it developed rapidly.  But I struggle to read articles when they start saying - biggest ever hurricane, and record breaking, when infact bigger and more sever hurricanes have come and gone, florida has seen much worse, with bigger surges and bigger rainfall totals, its a cat 5 - but predicted to be sub 3 b ythe time of landfall proper, compare this to the Philippines who regularly get clipped by Super tyhpoons killing large swathes of population, and yet we see very little coverage - if anything - those are the areas that need our support

Dont get me wrong, my heart goes out to anyone in the path.  Im usually the one saying people arent taking weather serious... but it feels like the media train has gotten a big hold on this, and my worry - i suppose, is - as hurricanes affect (severely) a relatively smaller area than the clouds suggest - that people may lose faith in meteorology where reality might not fit the pandemonium.  

anyone else feel like this?
Matty H
09 October 2024 13:48:28
Yep, it’s still nowhere near landfall, and still projected to weaken to around 125mph
However, good point further up about the storm surge 
Matty H
09 October 2024 17:44:57
White Meadows
09 October 2024 21:41:18
Officially downgraded to a Cat 3, weakening further possibly to Cat 2 or less. So a blowy night but one for the canoes to make an outing in the streets. 
Far worse have been seen in Florida. A case of mainstream media grinding out side stories with ulterior agendas. 

Matty H
09 October 2024 22:27:00

From what I understand this is a serious hurricane.... but i do feel the press has gone into hyperbole about it.  

True its a serious storm, made more serious by its trajectory, and yes - it developed rapidly.  But I struggle to read articles when they start saying - biggest ever hurricane, and record breaking, when infact bigger and more sever hurricanes have come and gone, florida has seen much worse, with bigger surges and bigger rainfall totals, its a cat 5 - but predicted to be sub 3 b ythe time of landfall proper, compare this to the Philippines who regularly get clipped by Super tyhpoons killing large swathes of population, and yet we see very little coverage - if anything - those are the areas that need our support

Dont get me wrong, my heart goes out to anyone in the path.  Im usually the one saying people arent taking weather serious... but it feels like the media train has gotten a big hold on this, and my worry - i suppose, is - as hurricanes affect (severely) a relatively smaller area than the clouds suggest - that people may lose faith in meteorology where reality might not fit the pandemonium.  

anyone else feel like this?

Originally Posted by: Russwirral 


Yep, spot on. Significantly weaker now than Helene two weeks ago. Was always projected to weaken. Some comments above about what weakening, well there is and it’s marked
Could even be a Cat 2 when the eyewall hits. 
Gandalf The White
09 October 2024 22:40:51

Officially downgraded to a Cat 3, weakening further possibly to Cat 2 or less. So a blowy night but one for the canoes to make an outing in the streets. 
Far worse have been seen in Florida. A case of mainstream media grinding out side stories with ulterior agendas. 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 


With the greatest respect, 125 mph winds are rather more than ‘a blowy night’; plus and a storm surge at its worst of maybe 4-5 metres; plus almost half a metre of rain in the worst affected areas.  Oh, and not forgetting the crop of tornadoes, nor the damage caused by Helene which has left huge piles of potential projectiles around and weakened/damaged buildings.

As for ‘far worse has been seen in Florida’, not in the part that’s going to take the direct hit.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


picturesareme
09 October 2024 22:49:31
Now this is hurricane.
185mph sustained winds.
From about 10 minutes in things seriously go down, and by 13 minutes total white out.
?si=ErbQkR8m3zsvOx1E
Gandalf The White
09 October 2024 22:53:57

From what I understand this is a serious hurricane.... but i do feel the press has gone into hyperbole about it.  

True its a serious storm, made more serious by its trajectory, and yes - it developed rapidly.  But I struggle to read articles when they start saying - biggest ever hurricane, and record breaking, when infact bigger and more sever hurricanes have come and gone, florida has seen much worse, with bigger surges and bigger rainfall totals, its a cat 5 - but predicted to be sub 3 b ythe time of landfall proper, compare this to the Philippines who regularly get clipped by Super tyhpoons killing large swathes of population, and yet we see very little coverage - if anything - those are the areas that need our support

Dont get me wrong, my heart goes out to anyone in the path.  Im usually the one saying people arent taking weather serious... but it feels like the media train has gotten a big hold on this, and my worry - i suppose, is - as hurricanes affect (severely) a relatively smaller area than the clouds suggest - that people may lose faith in meteorology where reality might not fit the pandemonium.  

anyone else feel like this?

Originally Posted by: Russwirral 


To a degree, but when you look at the area that’s going to be impacted by the storm surge it’s pretty much the entire coastline of Florida, plus the inland, low-lying areas.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/212329.shtml?peakSurge#contents 

This doesn’t look like the impacts are going to be restricted to a small area.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Chunky Pea
09 October 2024 22:55:26



As for ‘far worse has been seen in Florida’, not in the part that’s going to take the direct hit.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


Tampa saw a very similar hurricane in October 1921. 
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 


"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
picturesareme
09 October 2024 22:57:55

With the greatest respect, 125 mph winds are rather more than ‘a blowy night’; plus and a storm surge at its worst of maybe 4-5 metres; plus almost half a metre of rain in the worst affected areas.  Oh, and not forgetting the crop of tornadoes, nor the damage caused by Helene which has left huge piles of potential projectiles around and weakened/damaged buildings.

As for ‘far worse has been seen in Florida’, not in the part that’s going to take the direct hit.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


120mph so mid range Cat 3. 

Far more potent hurricanes have in the past hit the west/ southwest coast of Florida in the past. Of course even 120mph will do some significant damage. 

Helene went much further north of where Milton is going.
Gandalf The White
09 October 2024 23:07:10

120mph so mid range Cat 3. 

Far more potent hurricanes have in the past hit the west/ southwest coast of Florida in the past. Of course even 120mph will do some significant damage. 

Helene went much further north of where Milton is going.

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 


The pictures from the area, together with the comments from the local authorities, show that Helene impacted as far south as Tampa. Where the eye of Helene went is not indicative of the zone that experienced storm and hurricane force winds and storm surges. This is a point made with almost every update from the NHS.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Matty H
09 October 2024 23:11:01

120mph so mid range Cat 3. 

Far more potent hurricanes have in the past hit the west/ southwest coast of Florida in the past. Of course even 120mph will do some significant damage. 

Helene went much further north of where Milton is going.

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 


 Correct. Perspective is everything and there is 100% media hyperbole with this  
Not saying 100mph winds aren’t strong, but there was a far stronger hurricane two weeks ago that didn’t get quite this level of attention
Then you have the likes of gutter outlets like Sky News that are saying - wrongly - it’s increasing  in strength. Pathetic journalism as always from them

Matty H
09 October 2024 23:17:55
It doesn’t even look like a hurricane on the latest imagery. Looks more like a storm system. No classic eye and circulation. Looks ragged 
Matty H
09 October 2024 23:23:50
Sky News still peddling the ridiculous “Unsurvivable Hurricane” nonsense headline. 
I know Biden is almost as awful as Starmer, and it shows in his commentary as well
Safety first - absolutely - but let’s take a bit of perspective   
picturesareme
09 October 2024 23:39:39

Sky News still peddling the ridiculous “Unsurvivable Hurricane” nonsense headline. 

Originally Posted by: Matty H 


And I'd imagine the BBC are banging on the global warming being responsible drum as they usually do.
Gandalf The White
10 October 2024 00:05:36

It doesn’t even look like a hurricane on the latest imagery. Looks more like a storm system. No classic eye and circulation. Looks ragged 

Originally Posted by: Matty H 


It was expected to encounter wind shear as it approached the coast of Florida and weaken to a Cat 3 a result.
It’s worth noting that Katrina, which devastated the New Orleans area, was also ‘only’ a Cat 3 at landfall. The storm surge is determined by how powerful it has been during its approach, not its power on landfall.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Gandalf The White
10 October 2024 00:07:29

And I'd imagine the BBC are banging on the global warming being responsible drum as they usually do.

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 


The experts have made it clear that global warming has produced record warmth in the oceans and is responsible for sone of the rapid development. You don’t need to bang a drum, you just need to be aware of what’s happening to our climate and oceans.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


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