Shaping up to be a very interesting month this November, having been impressively mild only to turn notably cold for much of this week, before about-facing again this weekend, only to drop again next week.
While it was possible to anticipate a generally colder week or so from factors such as tropical forcing, the magnitude and duration of that was inevitably uncertain. Even now, it's not clear whether next week will be cold enough, soon enough, that this weekend registers as a 'blip' amidst a broader cold spell.
I've found this year particularly challenging to second-guess, which I believe is strongly connected to the presence of widespread record or near-record high sea surface temperatures plus an extremely rare combination of very warm North Atlantic yet strongly negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation.
The remote impacts of this on our weather have been fascinating to observe, but also rather disappointing to me personally, in that there's been a huge propensity for cloudy weather, and often a lot of rain. The in places record-dry first half to November was a welcome change of theme, even if it was horrendously cloudy until the final 4 days.
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[email protected] https://twitter.com/peacockreports 2023's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.2°C 9th Sep (...!) | T-Min: -7.1°C 22nd & 23rd Jan | Wettest Day: 25.9mm 2nd Nov | Ice Days: 1 (2nd Dec -1.3°C in freezing fog)
Keep Calm and Forecast On