Got back from Ottawa earlier than planned late last night so enjoying a quiet Thursday breakfast at the minute. Weather as you may recall on Monday had the potential to cause big problems around here with Freezing Rain/Snow and Ice, in the end by the way it seems there was a fairly sustained period of snow, mostly light which brought around 6cm, then a 2 to 3 hour spell of freezing rain followed by rain. From what i can gather, nothing incredibly unusual happened and although slow, the Monday morning commute passed without major problems. By 1225, the Freezing rain warning had been ended by EC.

What followed was a rapid thaw of the lying snow as extremely mild air plowed into Southern Ontario both on Tue & Wed. Below are EC record-breaking temps for the day widely recorded across the GTA including here in the City of Hamilton -

TUESDAY, JANUARY 29, 2013  NEW RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
-------------------------------------------------------------
LOCATION            NEW RECORD [C]  OLD RECORD [C] (YEAR)
-------------------------------------------------------------
WINDSOR             14.5            11.6 (2006)
SARNIA              12.4            11.0 (2006)
LONDON              10.5             8.9 (2006)
HAMILTON            10.5             8.9 (1975)
VINELAND            13.5             9.8 (2006)
WELLAND             12.8            10.2 (2006)
KITCHENER            9.9             7.3 (2006)
ELORA                8.8             6.6 (2006)
WIARTON              9.5             6.7 (2008)


WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 30, 2013  NEW RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
-------------------------------------------------------------
LOCATION            NEW RECORD [C]  OLD RECORD [C] (YEAR)
-------------------------------------------------------------
WINDSOR             15.6             9.5 (1988)
SARNIA              14.7             9.8 (1988)
LONDON              14.2             9.1 (1988)
HAMILTON            13.4            11.3 (2003)
VINELAND            16.8            11.1 (1969)
WELLAND             15.0            12.8 (1914)
KITCHENER           13.5             8.5 (1988)
ELORA               12.8             7.4 (1988)
TORONTO PEARSON     14.0             9.1 (2006)
BUTTONVILLE APRT    13.5             9.9 (1988)
WIARTON             10.1             9.6 (1988)
TRENTON             13.9             8.2 (1988)
PETERBOROUGH        12.6             8.5 (1988)
KINGSTON            10.6             6.0 (1988)
OTTAWA AIRPORT      11.7             5.6 (1974)
PETAWAWA             7.1             6.1 (1974)
MUSKOKA              9.3             6.0 (2006)

This is the 2nd time this January that a record-breaking spell of warmth has invaded Southern Ontario. So far Winter 2012/13 is looking like being split between extremely cold with some snow and extremely mild, even warm !!! No in-between

Now, it's into the freezer again as the warm air has been dramatically swept away by a cold front, the same cold front that brought several Tornadoes to the South-Central U.S. and a possible EF2 in GA killing one person in a mobile home. Snowsqualls have developed just to the north of Hamilton on the QEW this morning, driving conditions between here and Pearson at times could be incredibly hazardous. Later today, Hamilton might see some of this squall action and a return to lying snow possibly by days end.

It's not dull weather that's for sure!

Take Care

Hello, I've not managed to post on the thread for a couple of weeks (shame on me) - Stewart to answer your previous question yes I did see a brief half centimetre of lying snow but it was not a wintry spell for coastal Fife!

Certainly topsy turvy conditions in Southern Ontario: 24 hours after the record-breaking warmth it's sub-zero with snowsquall warnings fairly widespread, including, unusually for Toronto itself: http://weatheroffice.gc.ca/warnings/report_e.html?on61 

Looking at some of the traffic cams there's some sharp squalls just to the north of downtown right now.

Looks like staying chilly in the east over the weekend though the worst of the cold (sub -10c for highs) will be mostly to the north of the GTA.

Talking of GTA I've booked flights for late May so will be heading back to Toronto for a holiday including the chance to catch a couple of Blue Jays games!

Saw the headline warning from their weather website this morning and there a lot of flurries forecast for Sun-Tue so that probably would make up for having lack of snow this winter.  They always use flurries wording than snow or snow showers on their forecast.

Hello folks, glad to hear your coming over to T.O. in May Graeme, i'm guessing Air Transat from GLA? There was Sunwing last summer but i think it was much later in the season and went to/from London Gatwick also. Build up just about to begin to the Jays 2013 campaign with spring training around the corner, too early to predict what our chances are for the year ahead?

Big weather story coming for a large swath of the Eastern 3rd of the continent. A complex lp system comprising of two ingrediants to bring the full lot to millions of people from Heavy Rain and storm surge on the Atlantic seaboard to Heavy Snow for interior sections (including the GTA) and everything else in-between.

Considerable uncertainty with this one as EC report on here :

Special weather statement
Updated by Environment Canada
At 10:28 AM EST Wednesday 6 February 2013.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Special weather statement for:
      City of Toronto
      Windsor - Essex - Chatham-Kent
      Sarnia - Lambton
      Elgin
      London - Middlesex
      Simcoe - Delhi - Norfolk
      Dunnville - Caledonia - Haldimand
      Oxford - Brant
      Niagara
      City of Hamilton
      Halton - Peel
      York - Durham
      Huron - Perth
      Waterloo - Wellington
      Dufferin - Innisfil
      Grey - Bruce
      Barrie - Orillia - Midland
      Belleville - Quinte - Northumberland
      Kingston - Prince Edward
      Peterborough - Kawartha Lakes
      Stirling - Tweed - South Frontenac
      Bancroft - Bon Echo Park
      Brockville - Leeds and Grenville
      City of Ottawa
      Gatineau
      Prescott and Russell
      Cornwall - Morrisburg
      Smiths Falls - Lanark - Sharbot Lake
      Parry Sound - Muskoka
      Haliburton
      Renfrew - Pembroke - Barry's Bay
      Algonquin
      Burk's Falls - Bayfield Inlet.

A tale of two lows giving significant snowfall Thursday into Friday.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
==discussion==
An Alberta clipper will combine with a Texas low to bring a
significant snowfall to most of Southern Ontario. Light snow will
begin from west to east Thursday with heavier snow Thursday night
into Friday.

Current indications are that the highest snow amounts will occur
north of a line from Grand Bend to Hamilton to Kingston. General snow
amounts of 10 to 15 cm are possible with this event.

Lower snow amounts are expected to the south of this line with 5 to
10 cm possible. There is also a risk of freezing rain over the
Windsor to Chatham areas Thursday evening.

Winter driving conditions will likely deteriorate significantly
Thursday night.

There is still some uncertainty as to the exact tracks of both
Lows, which will affect the timing and snow amounts for each region.
Environment Canada is monitoring this system closely and will issue
further statements as necessary.

At the minute, looking very good for a big snowstorm for the City of Hamilton region up thru Kitchener/Guelph, Oakville and on up to Toronto. By big, possible 20cm + around here and the risk of lake-enhancement  i laugh, as i always say this is the best chance we get on the SW tip of Lake Ontario to feel like London or Sarnia does off Michigan in a lake-effect outbreak!

Still the models track changes though with this, some bringing it thru quicker thus less snow, more cold others including the GEM this afternoon going for a major snowstorm for most of the GTA. Starts tomorrow afternoon and could last 24hrs, sounds similar to the famous 2007 Valentine's day Blizzard around here (just a week earlier).

Will try and post later with an update, both the City of Toronto & Hamilton public boards and councils watching this one like a hawk. Last time around xmas when we got 17cm from a storm, it took the City of Hamilton 24hrs to clear priority roads and the complaints rolled in.

Elsewhere, NYC, Boston, Philly all looking likely to get some if not a major snowfall, for NYC it might mix with rain for a wee while. Atlantic Canada also watching this one closely as an all out Blizzard is being modelled for later on Friday.

Some twitter links for you to keep a track on things from Weather Hamilton, CHML radio, CP24 Toronto News & Brett Anderson :

https://twitter.com/WeatherHAMILTON; https://twitter.com/AM900CHML; https://twitter.com/CP24; https://twitter.com/BrettAWX

Stay Tuned

Potential major storm forecast to set-up shop off the E coast as systems now in the Dakotas and Texas merge. One forecast says Boston could get up to 30 inches of snow.

30 inches of snow, now that would be a talking point! Can't see those accumulations anywhere tbh .

Morning update, things now firming up that most of the GTA and Lakeshore areas will likely see their biggest snowstorm since Feb 2008 out of this. Consensus this morning for a disruptive (snowday) for Hamilton and Toronto on Friday. T.O. totals upto 30cm (1ft) Hamilton 30cm+ with potential lake-enhancement in that.

Here's the latest video cast from the excellent CP24 news team in Toronto : http://www.cp24.com/video?clipId=860128&binId=1.814368&playlistPageNum=1. Brett Anderson new blog with storm snowfall totals here : http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/storm-snowfall-forecast-maps/5711906. He's going for 25-35cm for all of the Lakeshore area from East of Hamilton right up thru Toronto, possible lake-effect snows also for Hamilton  temps marginal on the actual lakeshore but as always IF the set-up verifies due to my location on-the-mountain in Dundas it could be bonanza time!! Suburbs of T.O. also look prone to hefty lake-enhancement from this.

EC now have a Winter Storm Warning for Hamilton :

 4:50 AM EST Thursday 07 February 2013
Winter storm warning for
City of Hamilton continued

    Significant snowfall near 25 cm and blowing snow tonight and Friday.

A low will track northeast from Texas to Illinois today then track just south of Lake Erie on Friday.

Snow associated with a trough ahead of this system will start spreading into Southern Ontario from Michigan and Lake Huron today with a couple cm of snow possible by this evening in a swath of regions extending from Lake Huron to Western Lake Ontario.

This low will intensify into a winter storm as it approaches Southern Ontario, with an expanding area of heavy snow expected to move into most of Southern Ontario this evening and parts of Eastern Ontario overnight. The heaviest snow will occur during the Friday morning rush hour along the highway 401 corridor from London to the Greater Toronto area and through the Golden Horseshoe. The snow, heavy at times is expected to continue well into Friday as the strong system passes just south of the Great Lakes. Brisk northeasterly winds will also result in local blowing snow in many areas tonight and Friday.

Many parts of Southern and Eastern Ontario may receive 15 cm to 25 cm of snow from this storm before it ends Friday night. Total snowfall amounts will be lower over areas to the north of Lake Erie due to warmer temperatures giving rain or wet snow at times. The winter storm watch has thus been ended for these regions.

Areas along the western shore of Lake Ontario may receive near 25 cm of snow due to enhancement in the cold easterly flow off of Lake Ontario. Additionally these winds will result in blowing snow which may produce prolonged periods of reduced visibilities. A winter storm warning is thus in effect for these regions.

Travelling conditions will deteriorate and become hazardous in the snow and blowing snow tonight and Friday. There may be a significant impact on the commute to work on Friday morning and possibly Friday afternoon in heavy snow and blowing snow.

It's probably in a normal winter a once a year event but those words still send a chill or a warm glow thru you depending on your outlook! Toronto has an even rarer Snowfall Warning issued. Difference being that up there, all areas will see snow whereas some locations South and East of Hamilton will likely see a wintry mix at times if the track holds.

Waiting game now on this one, sad to say i'm slightly excited...... Going to be very interesting next 24-36hrs!

I almost don't want to comment and risk jinxing it as the last few winters have seen a few hyped storms that have failed to deliver much to Southern Ontario, but this one does look promising, not just because the storm track is a cracker for easterly enhancement off the lake but because the trend has been shifting towards and not away from a notable snowstorm for T.O. to Hamilton. Fingers very much crossed for you, Stewart.

Brett is calling for a healthy 23-28cm for Toronto: http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/storm-snowfall-forecast-maps/5711906

Meanwhile for the east coast of New England it's looking like a historic snowstorm, especially for the likes of eastern Connecticut, Rhode Island up to south east Maine. I'm pretty sure there will be some 30" storm totals in there somewhere.

Always think the build up and diagnostic research into these storms is more intense and fun to observe than the actually event in some ways Graeme! But, still looking very good for a major snowstorm for the GTA. Hamilton Spectator reporting now on the City's plans to (try) and cope with this monster : http://www.thespec.com/news/local/article/882490--storm-watch-city-vows-to-get-it-right-this-time.

One thing i forgot to add earlier was that this will be very different from the snows in Late Dec. Back then, it was holiday time and the roads were only 40% busy. Friday rush-hour if folk are sensible will be nion cancelled if the totals forecasted come off. Hard not to get a touch excited though when the The Weather Network are talking about 'whiteout' conditions on many of the 400 series hwy's !

Snowday or not, i have already altered my Friday plans, and hope to bring you some pics in due course also. Currently, light flurries here at -3c, the calm defo before the storm. Here is the Exeter radar from EC : http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/radar/index_e.html?id=WSO.

Now, a seperate element of this weather story takes place in the U.S. between Friday and Sunday, Atlantic Canada also included in this. I said earlier i doubted 30" of snow somewhere, well i may be proved wrong on that. Boston is under a Blizzard Warning from the NWC predicting 2ft of snow BEFORE drifting, potential for 70mph gusts of wind from the NE. Fox weather talking about a one in 30yr storm rivaling the Feb 1978 blizzard that paralyised Boston and the immediate area for weeks. Long Island to Nantucket could be a storm chasers dream location with this one. Major disruption to travel is expected and NYC currently forecast for 3-12" of snow is very close depending on the eventual track of this system to have a cripling snowevent also. Of course, for them it might be less. But a significant weathermaker for days to come in the Eastern 3rd of Canada & U.S.

Take Care

Firing line now shifted slightly north to Vermont, where 24"+ is expected.

Boston 12-18".

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/blizzard-to-bury-new-england-at-the-end-of-week/5673457

This says it all. Latest forecast issued out of the Taunton MA weather office.

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/StormTotalSnow/#

:zombiealert:

People emptying petrol stations as they fill up their cars, despite the fact they won't be able to get around in their cars once the snow hits.

Mental, that would be great here,, park your car up and watch it fall

Never mind potential. It can be stated with absolute certainty that the Taunton on that side of the Atlantic will get more snow than the Taunton on this side, over the weekend.

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/city/pages/on-143_metric_e.html

Very rare to see 8 snow flakes on their forecast symbol as 3 or 4 flakes are often used.  20cm of snow forecasted for Toronto area so would be very exciting for me if I was there. 

Yes unusual to see 'heavy snow' reported at Pearson. Some of the traffic cams are looking interesting! http://www.toronto.ca/rescu/ 

WOW, what a storm we are in. Definately one for the books for the Hamilton area once it's all said and done. Toronto also has had a major dumping although the worst of the conditions appear to be down here on the Horseshoe. Quick accumulation totals i have so far :

Toronto Pearson - 20cm

Hamilton Downtown - 21cm

Hamilton Munro - 30cm

Dundas Mountain - 32cm EST @ 1445l

Pics to Follow!

Snowboots the order of the day in Downtown Hamilton

Jackson Square, Hamilton at 11am this morning. Yes, HSR buses are still running INCREDIBLY enough!

You should change your signature, judging by your pix.

I wonder how much London is getting. Probably not quite as much as it's that bit further away from the horseshoe.

Great pics O S send some more in, winter proper

US north-east braces for 'historic' snowstorm

Beg pardon if this has already been up

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-21377568