For what it's worth, the Hadley provisional CET for June is 14.03C, 0.13C below average. Let's see how much of a downward revision there is for the final figure.

Originally Posted by: Darren S 

I calculate the final CET to be 13.67c, probably a few hundredths less than what GW will find it to be, but my mean absolute error for the last 3 months is 0.05c, so the Hadley value should be close to this.

June was only 0.14c warmer than last year and, but for last year, it was the coolest June since 1991. Six below average months on the trot. Coldest March to June period since 1891

All of which is curious because I've kept reading in the model thread over the last month about how warm it was going to be. There were posts actually reporting cool conditions, but few actually forecasting them, yet I could've sworn I saw such conditions projected in the models. What could explain this apparent paradox?

Originally Posted by: Younger Dryas 

Originally Posted by: Younger Dryas 

None of which explains YD's confusion about the MO thread. Unless he was trying to take a sly swipe? Well beyond him of course.

Originally Posted by: Steam Fog 

It explains it well - YD is right in what he's saying. There are a few posters, especially you, who were cherry-picking the very warmest output each run and plastering it all over the forum. And yet, when the ensemble output (you know, the things which should be relied on more than each individual operational run) was saying average and it was pointed out, you (and a few others) kept on with the warm ramping.

It was very tiresome and in fact is the reason I've given up posting for the summer in the weather forum.

See you all in the latter half of August!

(And in the meantime, the ECM ensembles are actually showing a heatwave down here, hence the confidence from the MetO. The same goes for the 32-dayer as well, it also shows a sustained warmer than average spell to come).

Originally Posted by: Steam Fog 

Not sure how you can criticise SF when quoting YD who does the complete opposite?

Originally Posted by: Sevendust 

Very easily - SF irritated me enough with his incessant biased posting to quit the forum. YD doesn't, at least I've not seen him posting every single poxy run about how cold one of the outliers is!

Excitement about "your" weather type is understandable, as is posting the odd outlier just to gawk at. However, it drags the whole of the MO thread down when people keep doing it day in, day out and it drowns out the actual reasoned discussion. As I've said, we should all be paying attention to the ensembles and sadly not enough people do. And those inexperienced at watching the output are likely to pick up unrealistic expectations because of it - hence the general warm-ramping that was going on in the MO thread throughout June, despite the models not backing it up for most of the time. And the overall near average CET shows that yes, the models and ensembles actually got a grip on it.

Anyway, I've said my piece and I'll leave you all to enjoy the summer. Have fun!

Originally Posted by: Sevendust 

It explains it well - YD is right in what he's saying. There are a few posters, especially you, who were cherry-picking the very warmest output each run and plastering it all over the forum. And yet, when the ensemble output (you know, the things which should be relied on more than each individual operational run) was saying average and it was pointed out, you (and a few others) kept on with the warm ramping.

It was very tiresome and in fact is the reason I've given up posting for the summer in the weather forum.

See you all in the latter half of August!

(And in the meantime, the ECM ensembles are actually showing a heatwave down here, hence the confidence from the MetO. The same goes for the 32-dayer as well, it also shows a sustained warmer than average spell to come).

Originally Posted by: Steam Fog 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/mly_cet_mean_sort.txt

13.6c

Originally Posted by: Younger Dryas 

It explains it well - YD is right in what he's saying. There are a few posters, especially you, who were cherry-picking the very warmest output each run and plastering it all over the forum. And yet, when the ensemble output (you know, the things which should be relied on more than each individual operational run) was saying average and it was pointed out, you (and a few others) kept on with the warm ramping.

It was very tiresome and in fact is the reason I've given up posting for the summer in the weather forum.

See you all in the latter half of August!

(And in the meantime, the ECM ensembles are actually showing a heatwave down here, hence the confidence from the MetO. The same goes for the 32-dayer as well, it also shows a sustained warmer than average spell to come).

Originally Posted by: Steam Fog 

The latest ECM 32 day mean has middle England on 13.3 for the month of June; I'll continue with the MM average which, for June, is 14.2 - lots of people going with that figure so will alter slightly and go for 14.27C

Originally Posted by: nouska 

Anyway, I've said my piece and I'll leave you all to enjoy the summer. Have fun!

Originally Posted by: Retron 

I don't disagree with your sentiments, just how you chose to present them in the first instance

Ultimately the tone and conduct of the M.O. thread comes down to moderation and I suspect your comments are not lost on the heirarchy.

I look forward to the return of your analysis in colder times 

Originally Posted by: Sevendust 

An incredible run of negative anomalies;

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Which looks certain to end with July. 

Originally Posted by: Gavin P 

My goodness - wasn't suprised though to see June end up with the CET -0.6C below though.

It was very cool in my part of the country - but at least it was dry.

Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 

I'm very surprised at the negative CET figure; it felt like a very decent month here. In fact, from memory the best June since 2006: frequently warm, mostly sunny, generally dry. Start of the month felt fantastic (we took a break in Devon), and mid-month we had the paddling pool set up in the garden.

My prediction was ultimately poor, but I feel cheated

Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 

I'm very surprised at the negative CET figure; it felt like a very decent month here. In fact, from memory the best June since 2006: frequently warm, mostly sunny, generally dry. Start of the month felt fantastic (we took a break in Devon), and mid-month we had the paddling pool set up in the garden.

My prediction was ultimately poor, but I feel cheated

Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger