Good evening. Here is the report of the midday outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Thursday July 11th 2013.
All models show the fine and settled weather continuing in general. As always there will be exceptions but tonight they are relatively minor ones. Low cloud will spill west across Eastern and Central regions giving an uninspiring start to the weather for some tomorrow before it clears readily under the strong morning July sunshine. Through the weekend a weak cold front will bring the risk of a few thundery showers towards the North on Saturday and the SE on Sunday.
GFS then shows High pressure still well in control throughout next week with fine and very warm weather in the South almost totally uninterrupted with this extending further North and East later to replace the slightly cooler and less sunny conditions that Northern and Eastern areas of the UK may experience in the first half of the week. The weather then stays set fair as High pressure sits right over the UK right out to within 48hrs of the end of the run. There would be high temperatures and prolonged sunshine with little chance of any rain with light winds too. The last 48hrs of the operational does see a downturn in events but too far out to take to much notice of currently.
The GFS Ensembles dictate a fine and warm week to come before a slow cooling process is shown. The operational takes us into the Sahara at the end of FI but is not supported as most members show conditions closer to average by then. Rainfall is limited in the first week with a slow trend upwards in the frequency and intensity late in the run more so in the North.
The Jet Stream is shown to stay well North of the UK for the next week or so as it becomes steered around the Northern periphery of a large UK High next week.
UKMO shows a fine middle of the week next week with High pressure straddled across the heart of the UK. The North would be pleasantly warm with some spells of sunshine with more cloud limited to the far NW. Much of England and Wales will continue on from this week with still plenty of very warm and sunny weather to come with no chance of rain.
GEM again builds pressure across the UK next week with some very warm weather in the South at the start of the week extending to all areas through the week as High pressure remains slow moving across the UK.
NAVGEM shows a different variation on the same theme as High pressure ends the week positioned over the North Sea with very warm or hot continental air feeding across the UK with all of Britain remaining fine and dry.
ECM tonight maintains the summer feel with High pressure just off to the SW at the beginning of the week with fine and very warm weather in the south while the North sees nearer to or just above average temperatures for a while in mostly fine conditions. By midweek the High to the SW extends a ridge North and topples over the UK as a High centre encompasses all of the UK by Thursday with very warm and sunny weather extending to all areas. this then continues out to the end of the run with some very high temperatures possible in the South.
In Summary tonight the weather remains very Summery with High pressure in total domination near to or over the UK for the next couple of weeks and maybe more. The pattern seems locked with just an occasional weak front injecting the risk of the odd thundery shower to keep life interesting for weather observers from time to time. Some output shows some very high temperatures with no output I've seen tonight showing anything cool over the next few weeks. In fact it looks more likely that viewing charts in two weeks time could prove to be that they look very similar to what they do now in continuing fine Summer weather.
Originally Posted by: GIBBY