Good morning. Here is the report on the midnight outputs of GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Friday July 12th 2013.
All models support a fine and dry spell to come for some considerable time. High pressure remains in total domination of the UK weather. However, as always in the UK there are some exceptions and there are a few small but subtle ones if you are under the place where such exceptions occur. Firstly low cloud and mist continues to be a pain for Easternmost coastal areas where cool air from the North Sea continues to be drawn in at times and this also applies to Northern Scotland at times too. Also more generally across Scotland tomorrow there will be more cloud with some light rain possible in the NW and later in the day on Saturday a few thundery showers may break out over Northern areas and on Sunday in the SE. Despite these exceptions the vast majority of the UK will enjoy prolonged and very warm or hot sunshine with small amounts of cloud and light winds. The High pressure responsible will lie close to Western Britain through the weekend and settles down to the SW for a time early next week.
GFS then builds the High pressure back across all areas through next week to settle over the UK with Nationwide fine, sunny and very warm weather for all through the week. Later in the run this morning though the trend has reverted to a progression of rather cooler and more unsettled weather to edge down from the North affecting the North and East at first but all areas by the end of the run with showers and outbreaks of rain a risk for all by then.
The GFS Ensembles show the operational as much of a cold outlier at the end as much as it was a hot one on yesterday's midday run with the more likely scenario being a gentle cooling off in conditions from a week or so with the risk of rain increasing somewhat more so in the North than the South.
The Jet Stream shows the flow maintained between Scotland and Iceland for the next week or so. Reflecting the slightly less unsettled conditions in the second half of its run the flow is directed South towards the South of England in Week 2.
UKMO this morning shows High pressure anchored over the UK next Thursday with very warm, sunny and settled weather for all areas with very light winds.
GEM too has High pressure building across the UK again towards the middle and end of next week with a cell close to NW Britain in 10 days continuing to fend off any meaningful rainfall events. It would be warm and very warm next week for virtually all areas though North Sea coasts could be a little cooler and fresher at times in an onshore breeze.
NAVGEM today ends it's run with High pressure over the North Sea with a light East flow across the South of the UK. The weather though would remain unchanged with fine, sunny and very warm weather predominating for all.
ECM Shows High pressure straddled across the UK next week lying West to East delivering sustained fine and very warm, sunny weather for all. Late in the run an incursion from a front to the NW looks likely for Northern areas but the South looks odds on to continue with fine and dry weather to see us well into the last week of July unabated.
My optimism of last night remains undiluted this morning despite an 'iffy' second half operational from GFS which was an outlier thankfully. The weather looks locked in with High pressure seeming to have nowhere to go other than over the UK in the same way that Low pressure did some months ago. So all in all this means a wealth of warm and sunny weather for the next 10-14 days across the South with some of this in the less lucky North at times too where a few cloudier interludes could make things just a little cooler here at times with the risk of just a little rain.
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset