Well the upcoming spell of settled and potentially very warm weather is not entirely without interest for convection lovers. The orientation of the High Pressure leads us away from any continental activity for the foreseeable future but there may be something focused on the hills and mountains of N.England, Scotland and Ireland over the next ten days. High temperatures combined with orographics and convergence in these areas could certainly promote scattered heavy showers or storms and this is backed up by GFS data indicating some favourable LI values. The best I could see was -4 but there are several days which go to zero or under across those areas

Matt highlighted this on twitter. This is the Leeds sounding for tomorrow. Pretty unstable and wouldn't rule out a heavy shower based on that

http://rasp.inn.leedsmet.ac.uk/UK+1/FCST/sounding12.curr.1700lst.d2.png

Decent enough PW Dave but I think vertical forcing will be the trigger if at all.
I'd say the eastern slopes of the Penines have as much chance as any of growing a cell or two late afternoon.

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I'm torn - while I would kill for a thunderstorm right now (nearly 2 years!), I also want tomorrow to be hot and sunny, maybe 30C at a very big push.

Decisions, decisions.. as if I can control the weather.

The Beeb also mentioned the possibility of thunderstorms on Saturday as a front moves south into the hot air over England and Wales.

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Well the potential instability gave a heavy shower earlier near Hexham, presumably from orographic forcing in the Pennines.

I have seen the reference to storms at the weekend. Very hard to know with weak fronts but the introduction of extra moisture at higher levels can cause some interest 

I saw some cumulus towering today, albeit briefly and pretty small. Better luck on Saturday..

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Just a reminder - if you want to learn more about soundings and how to interpret the soundings chart, we have a useful article by Matt Hugo here:

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/yaf_postst7057_Atmospheric-Soundings-and-Convective-Activity.aspx

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BBC forecasts indicate a risk of heavy showers across the mountains of Wales tomorrow as the CF engages the heat and orographics

There are indications that enough instability may be introduced for a small but finite risk of local thunderstorms over the weekend.

Watch this space.

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The potential has been showing for the Saturday afternoon / evening period for a couple of days. Well worth keeping tabs on

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs843.gif

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Hi, that wetterzentrale chart above...... what is it indicating? Cannot find/see a key..... is it rainfall indicating thunder possibility or ?
Cheers;
VSC..

Any help with the above chart/map above please?

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The Thunderstorm icon has now been replaced on the East Midlands weather for Saturday with Light Rain Shower? Whats all that about?
VSC.

Just accumulated 3hr rainfall in mm and freezing level in metres.
Note: GFS ppn charts a little wayward at times, but a decent indication of convective potential.

Anyone expecting a stormfest over the weekend will be dissapointed, but a few isolated storms are possible in places.

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Thanks!

This could be a very empty thread.

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So, where are any Thunderstorms likely to develop this Saturday? We're at home to Newcastle and the track will need some water most of the day/evening, so knowing the % chance of a thunderstorm accompanied with the normal associated heavy rain/hail would be helpful...
The Leicester Speedway track is located nr Beaumont Leys... just before Anstey/Bradgate Park...
Racing starts 19:30
Any ideas would be helpful....
Cheers
VSC.

Yep no signs of storms here foreseeable future.

GFS kicks things off in a big way on Tuesday:

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs1263.gif

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Indeed

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs1266.gif

We can only dream Dave.

Surely all good things come to those who wait.......

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Great storm charts indeed. Haven't had an overhead storm for nearly 2 years here - desperately waiting.

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Some isolated storms possible in NI, SE Scotland and NE England later today. Risk tomorrow moves further south. Popcorn jobs, so some places missing them entirely.

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My rain alarm has just been triggered by what looks like a sharp shower that darted down through Brum area, no sferics indicated. Is this an actual rain event or a computer generated error?
Cheers
VSC