Hi everyone. Here is this evenings report on the midday outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Saturday July 13th 2013.
All models show no change for the weather in the coming week. High pressure close to SW Britain will settle there for a day or too before migrating further North and East across the UK through the middle of the week enabling the North to share in the fine and very warm weather that England and Wales will enjoy for the whole of the coming week. Temperatures may get into the hot category at times through the week and as always in the UK when these temperatures are breached there is always the risk of the odd thundery shower to break out in the heat of the day, though as today they will be no means widespread.
GFS sets up a sustained period of fine and hot weather lasting through next weekend and the start of the following week before things begin to turn a little more thundery more widely late in the run as the High pressure loses it's grip somewhat to rather cooler and more showery conditions though I doubt to many would be complaining by then.
The GFS Ensembles tonight show the operational and Control runs at the top of the tree again tonight with most members favouring a cooler feel as we get to the far end of the output but by no means a change to wet weather.
The Jet Stream maintains it's Icelandic Summer home for the reliable time frame from tonight.
UKMO tonight keeps High pressure influential to all of the UK late next week centred over the North sea with a strong ridge over all areas. Plenty more fine weather would be enjoyed for all as a result with very warm conditions continuing for the South and extending to the North too.
GEM shows High pressure in control of the UK weather for the foreseeable future too with just a slight relaxation of it's influence towards the SW of the UK again towards Day 10.
NAVGEM has High pressure going nowhere fast with it's centre drifting off into the North sea late next week but maintaining strong influence for all of the UK with plenty of very warm and sunny weather to be had by all.
ECM finally shows High pressure well in control of the weather to end next week and the weekend. Towards the end of the run there seems nothing to suggest that the High pressure area won't last into August until Day 10 which I don't buy into at that range as the pattern seems unlikely to change that quickly with maintained high temperatures and sunshine across the UK, especially the South.
In Summary the pattern looks unlikely to change significantly within the outputs period tonight. Some more distant charts do toy around with trying to bring an end to the High pressure dominated period but they all look very isolated with no common ground between them. Instead we're much more likely to maintain this very warm and at times hot period of weather, particularly if you live in the South with any rain likely from the odd rogue thunderstorm during the heat of the day's or from weak fronts in the far NW. If this pattern persists until the end of the month many places will end up with their warmest and certainly driest July for many years.
Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger