Looking at Raintoday, given the random nature of the returns around Brum it looks to me like a case of our good friend AnaProp rather than anything "real".

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The GFS has never dropped the idea of convective thundery potential for many central and eastern and southeastern areas on Saturday evening.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs423.gif

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I'd say "Deal" (in a Deal Or No Deal style). Indeed, does fit the idea of my mention of a small risk of thundery-type activity in this morning's edition of the Cloud Master forecast. 

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Anaprop?

Anaprop = Anomalous Propagation. False returns showing on rainfall radar,

Often occurs under strong anticyclones, often due to radar refraction in temperature inversions.

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Thankscfor the AnaProp explanation, it was a brief, erratic, sausage shaped affair..... anyway.
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Sounds like a fair description of several unsolicited encounters I've had over the years . . .

The anaprop issue is a pain in the winter when the offshore windfarms wreck havoc with the returns emerging from the Dutch coast.
There were several occasions when I was sure the Essex/Kent coast was about to get hit by a blizzard and it turned-out to be a line of whirly-gig induced interference.

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Certainly a decent amount of CAPE available tomorrow, with a lifted index figure as low as -5:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2411.png

That suggests to me that any isolated storms which may develop could be rather potent...

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I remember one snowfall in Jan showing a stream of heavy precipitation leaving the Benelux and towards Yorkshire.. but it never actually reached here, and was just false radar returns.

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Looking at this map, the well done, rather chubby, boomerang shaped sausage areas covering the central/spiny portion of the country.... Is this the area most likely where Thunderstorms will develop, or if they do develop, this will be where they are most angry?

Cheers;
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The BBC forecast 15 mins ago suggests that the area north of London could be at greatest risk (ie Midlands to NE England), although I wonder whether the risk will move south as the day progresses? 

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Ha, Ha! The AnaProp is back!! This time another finger from St Albans to London!!
Unless its actually raining there!!

Ok, serious question. ........
Whats happened to all those night time storms of the 70's and 80's? You know, the ones your grand parents said were there to "RIPEN THE CORN" usually lots of "sheet-lightning" normally between 10pm and 3am!!!
Haven't witnessed one in decades!!!!! Where are they?
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Well I hope to see some thundery activity this month, been very quiet this year. Once upon a time we used to to do quite well here for thunderstorms during Spring and Summer. 

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Cell has fired up just to the south west of here, very rapid development. One to keep an eye on, trundling over the A1 near Harrogate.

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Seems to have eased that one but a new intense cell now going over the Pennines east of Kendal. Torrential radar returns but no sferics yet

The Leeds sounding for 1600z shows deep instability from 3K to over 34K feet and 681 CAPE. Just needs a trigger

http://rasp.inn.leedsmet.ac.uk/UK+0/FCST/sounding12.curr.1700lst.d2.png

Yes convection is somewhat ragged, but plenty of congestus shooting up. A real Texas in the spring feel to things out there.

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More exciting in these set ups in some way. I've just edited my earlier post to include the Leeds sounding which is non too bad!

It is looking good - and as Arcu says, feels somewhat Texan today, currently 28C with towering clouds.

Also, Sat24 shows lightning in that cell near Kendal.

http://www.sat24.com/en/gb

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Some locally intense cells across parts of Northern England at the mo on net radar with lightning being detected.

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Non too bad would mean dry hot and sunny. I supect that you mean that it might just rain on my parade though...

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Enormous cumulous clouds to the east of here (Kendal) which have been building all morning/early afternoon.  The sun keeps going in, but it's as hot and humid as I can remember even when the sun is behind the clouds.  I'm heading over to a friend's in the Pennines this afternoon, supposedly for a swim, so it may be interesting!

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Well the cloud is still bubbling up overhead and to the east over the Pennines, hopefully I will hear a crack of thunder before the afternoon is out, but probably not 

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You may swim on the way! Topography doubtless the trigger for what will be a fairly slow moving storm and likely to drop a lot of rain in a small area rather quickly. Blitzorg now also confirming sferics

Going dark here and very threating!

Rapid convection under way.

 

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