Hi folks. Here is tonight's update on the outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for tonight Tuesday July 16th 2013.
All models show very little change from this morning covering the next 5-7 days. High pressure close to SW Britain is edging slowly North over the UK over the next 48 hours maintaining very warm or hot conditions across the UK and spreading it to the far North and West of Britain too which has largely missed out as of late. Through the weekend and start of next week High pressure centred across the North continues to dominate the weather with a slack Easterly flow across the South over the weekend. All areas will stay largely dry with just the risk of the odd storm possible across Southern Britain over the weekend.
GFS then continues to maintain fine conditions through the first half of next week with light winds and sunny weather for the most part though as time passes the weather will begin to turn more thundery, first in the SW and more generally later in the week as cooler and fresher air feeds in behind it. The end of the run shows more unsettled weather, especially in the North with occasional rain though the South will see less of this with a lot of fine weather still though less warm than of late.
The GFS Ensembles show a lot less support for a cool off despite another operational run showing the cooler air well established late in the run. It is a cold outlier at the end in an altogether bigger spread between the members late in the run. The mean shows a more moderate approach to somewhat cooler conditions reaching the long term mean by the end of the run while rainfall in the South continues to be a scarce commodity from many members. Pressure by the end of the ensemble pack favours higher pressure over or to the North of the UK with just shallow Low pressure near or over the UK likely to bring a scattering of showers in less hot conditions overall.
The Jet Stream continues to show the flow blowing across Iceland and Northern waters over the next week or so before it becomes weaker and less defined. At the very edge of reality it shows a tendency to drift East across the Atlantic towards the UK in response to the more unsettled feel of GFS latter run charts.
UKMO tonight shows High pressure up to the North and NE of the UK with a slack area of pressure across the UK supplying plenty more fine and very warm or hot weather with the slowly increasing risk of some thundery developments in the South but by no means a widespread event.
GEM tonight shows High pressure positioning in a belt to the North of the Uk with a strengthening Easterly flow across the South as pressure falls from the Azores to Portugal. Easterly winds will bring more cloud up from the South later with some thundery showers in still very warm conditions. The NW of the UK would then see the sunniest and warmest conditions.
NAVGEM tonight shows pressure falling next week as well as the temperatures albeit slowly with the increasing risk of showers with time.
ECM shows tonight what it showed this morning with fine and settled weather continuing for the UK with very warm or hot conditions throughout the next 10 days as High pressure refuses to move much or weaken.
In Summary tonight it continues to look as though changes will be slow and for the most part unlikely to make much difference to surface conditions for many though the incidence of daytime showers might increase somewhat with time. While temperatures remain well on the above side of average over the next 10 days at least the very highest temperatures may begin to leak away a little with time after next week.
Originally Posted by: GIBBY