http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1442.gif
This is very close to the 12z GFS op run - just slightly weaker with the HP to the NE with uppers a smidge lower... but a gentler airflow would probably more than balance against that in terms of surface temperatures and in particular the feel of things.
When you look at it, UKMO's not as isolated as you might think tonight, indicating that it's moved quite some way towards the GFS/ECM consensus compared with the 00z UKMO run, which was on a different planet (where it hung out with NAVGEM).
NAVGEM remains close to UKMO tonight, in fact it gives a good idea as to where UKMO would go:
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgem/runs/2013071712/navgem-0-180.png?17-19
Before that, the run features a brief thundery interlude with 20°C uppers in the SE:
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgem/runs/2013071712/navgem-0-102.png?17-18
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgem/runs/2013071712/navgem-1-102.png?17-18
...so arguably that model's version of events is ideal for those of us who desire some thunderstorms followed by a quick reload of more stable but still very warm to hot conditions. Shame it tends to get a bit carried away with things!
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1682.gif
Strong thundery plume alert!
Originally Posted by: Stormchaser